Posted on 09/02/2010 5:33:41 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
There appears to be a dearth of polling in the red hot GOP Senate Priamry in Delaware in which Tea Party backed Christine O'Donnell is challenging the entrenched elitist and very liberal Congressman, Mike Castle for the nomination to Joe Biden's old Senate seat. In fact, there is even less polling than was available in Alaska (unreliable as it was).
As some of you know, I did two analyses of Joe Miller's trends on Facebook versus Lisa Murkowski's beginning on July 31. The links are below:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2570601/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2573312/posts
I did a further analysis on August 18, which reinforced an unmistakable surge in Miller 's Facebook numbers vis a vis Murkowski's stagnant numbers that were not reflected in any of the available polling. The absence of such polling entirely in Delaware suggests to me that it would be very bad news indeed for Castle. The Facebook numbers appear to bear this out. When I was researching the Miller-Murkowski Facebook race in early August, I recall seeing that Christine O'Donnell had fewer than 3500 Facebook Friends. This morning at about 9 a.m., she had 5632. Mike Castle, in spite of his long tenure in Delaware politics as the Governor and Congressman, had 2229 as of this morning. And the trends?
This afternoon, at 6:50 p.m., less than 10 hours after I last checked, O'Donnell's Facebook numbers had surged to 5762, an increase of 130, a surge of nearly 2.5% in less than 10 hours! Castle's numbers remains stuck at 2229, ominously reminiscent of the stagnant Facebook Numbers which Murkowski registered throughout the Miller surge last month that culminated in his great victory.
With O'Donnell poised to dispatch the uber liberal Castle, an assist by Sarah Palin may be all she needs in order to close the sale. The question is: Should she do it?
For my money, Sarah Palin should endorse Christine O'Donnell. She is very much in the mold of Nikki Haley Joe Miller, Rand Paul and Sharron Angle and is an excellent and articulate conservative who is under attack by the Old Guard on the Eastern Seaboard. She will add yet one more constitutionalist voice to the chorus that will be singing from her hymn book come January 2011.
The risk to reward ratio is great. If Palin is thinking ahead, and I know she always does, she has to know that Castle is a quisling who will sabotage not only the GOP effort to derail Obama's poisonous agenda in the next Congress but that he will be around at least through the first two years of the next Administration (which, in my view, will be her Administration). He is a major problem, and he would be a major thorn in her side if she takes up residency at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Castle should be taken out now, while the momentum exists and while the candidate to do it is available. I hesitate to offer her advice because her instincts are so very good. But I have to think she is waiting for the precise moment when her endorsement will have the maximum impact. And her sense of timing is...impeccable.
Ping!
Palin does have good political instincts. Her endorsement might very well seal the deal for Christine O’Donnell. It would be fine with me if another RINO went down in flames.
You know what would help is if Mike Castle just switched parties.
Links to the previous article on Miller vs. Murkowski on Facebook:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2570601/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2573312/posts
I have no love for RINO Castle, but O’Donnell is probably clinically insane. Just look at her interview with the Weekly Standard. The woman has a clear cut case of delusional paranoia.
I pinged Exit82 to your earlier thread. On a thread the other day, Exit82 told me that Christine was very positive about meeting with Sarah last Saturday morning right before the Restoring Honor Rally started.
Of course Christine can’t say anything because the endorsement has to come from Sarah.
I’ve been sending her money. How did she do on Levin’s show a few days ago?
Gonna be interesting.
If it is O’Donnell in a close one, will the Senate Republicans stick their nose in it?
Another interesting question. After the primaries, will the national organization provide the same level of support to conservative candidates that ousted RINOs as it was planning to give to the RINOs they defeated??
IMO the RNC elitists secretly would like to see all of our conservative young Turks soundly defeated in the general election.
We need to do more than replace the RINOS in office, we need to replace the RINOs running the party.
“I have no love for RINO Castle, but O’Donnell is probably clinically insane. Just look at her interview with the Weekly Standard. The woman has a clear cut case of delusional paranoia.”
I read that hit piece. From that you conclude she is insane. Do you think thugs and creeps don’t stalk politicians? Joe McGinniss ring a bell?
But I don’t care if she is out of her mind. She will vote in the U.S. Senate as I would vote. Castle would vote as Obama would vote. The votes count the same regardless of the (alleged) mental stability of the Senator.
huh?
Onyx, that would be great news. I hope Sarah does it. Castle is an old coot and needs to be put out tho pasture. He will be an impediment to her agenda, and now is the opportune time to remove him.
“How did she do on Levin’s show a few days ago?”
I heard the interview and she was great. Levin was very impressed with her. I can’t believe some one on this thread called her delusional. Must be a Castle drone.
Is Palin popular with Republicans in Delaware? They seem to have a lot of RINOs there. An endorsement might actually hurt O’Donnell if it is used to paint O’Donnell as “too extreme” to some they might otherwise vote for her.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that a Palin endorsement is a definite plus in the West and the South but does she have traction with Northeastern pubbies or do they believe all the DC rubbish about Palin?
I don't have a dog in this hunt but "Facebook numbers" as a predictor of the winner? I don't think so...
Super! May I quote you on another site?
The audio for her Levin appearance is here:
http://marklevinfan.com/2010/08/31/christine-odonnell-has-the-momentum-in-delaware/
Mark’s opening rant tonight was in her defense of Castle’s smears!
Great question!! Here's my answer.
No, the national GOP will not support conservative nominees the way they support RINOs. At least that was definitely true under Bush/Rove and I'm guessing the same type of people are running it now.
But the good news is that a lot of conservatives have figured this out and are not donating to the national GOP any more, instead giving the money to local organizations or directly to the candidates to bypass the national GOP giving your money to the likes of McCain and Kirk.
Therefore, I'm not sure the lack of national GOP support will matter as much as it would have 6-10 years ago.
“Facebook numbers”
I don’t have a dog in this hunt but “Facebook numbers” as a predictor of the winner? I don’t think so..
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Hate to break it to you, but the Facebook numbers in Alaska were a lot better predictor of the result than the polls. In fact, they hit it fight on the head when every pundit and poll said Joe Miller was dead in the water:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2570601/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2573312/posts
She was on Cavuto today, may have generated traffic.
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