Posted on 08/26/2010 11:15:33 AM PDT by MissesBush
Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina are now essentially tied in California’s U.S. Senate race, moving the state from Leans Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California shows Boxer with 44% support, while Fiorina picks up 43% of the vote. Five percent (5%) like another candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Earlier this month, Boxer held a five-point lead, 45% to 40%, and she was ahead 49% to 42% in July. Since February, Boxer’s support has ranged from 42% to 49%. In those same surveys, Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has earned 38% to 43% of the vote.
When leaners are included in the new totals, Boxer moves ahead by five points – 49% to 44%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.
Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.
Eighty-two percent (82%) of those who support Fiorina say they are already certain how they will vote in November. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Boxer’s supporters say the same.
Still, given California’s Democratic leanings and Boxer’s powers of incumbency, the race remains a tough one for Fiorina, a political newcomer.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in California was conducted on August 24, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers for the California governor’s race tomorrow. Other data from this survey can be found at www.rasmussenreports.com/California.
Fiorina earns 89% support from Republican voters, while 77% of Democrats favor Boxer. Voters not affiliated with either party give a modest edge to the Democrat.
Just two percent (2%) of all California voters rate the economy as good, while 67% describe it as poor. Twenty-one percent (21%) say the economy is getting better, but 51% think it’s getting worse.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters in the state say the United States is in a recession.
Nationally, voters now blame President Obama’s policies as much as those of President George W. Bush for the bad economy.
But 55% of voters in California approve of Obama’s job performance as president. Forty-three percent (43%) disapprove. This is little changed from surveys over the past couple months and is higher job approval than the president earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Twenty-six percent (26%) of California voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Boxer, while 37% view her Very Unfavorably.
Fiorina is viewed Very Favorably by 16% and Very Unfavorably by 24%.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In California during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Obama winning the state by a 61% to 34% margin. Obama won 61% to 37%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Kerry leading Bush in California 53% to 43%. Kerry won 54% to 44%.
In the 2006 California governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Arnold Schwarzenegger defeating Phil Angelides 53% to 40%. Schwarzenegger won 56% to 39%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Dianne Feinstein defeating Richard Mountjoy 58% to 35%. Feinstein won 60% to 35%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed House races in North Dakota and South Dakota and Senate races in Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
I expect she'll do the same here - hope Fiorina won't be caught flat-footed.
Sorry to say, as close as these races are it should not be difficult for the Demonrats to bus in enough illegals to make up for any vote deficit.
California Democrats will just walk through graveyards writing down names until they have as many as they need.
Boxer must lose!
You are right. Fiorina needs a big lead in order to overcome the inevitable vote fraud. The democrats have their people inside the post office ready to steal absentee ballots. The AFSCME union members working at DMV (Department of Mexican Voters) will do thier part to swell the voter rolls. Boxes of ballots in Republican districts will disappear. I hope we are wrong, but I see Boxer winning by a small fraction.
California??? Even with the $6T our children and grandchildren will owe for Obama’s massively wasteful programs, the socialist experiment in our White House may have a silver lining.
The incumbent below 50% rule doesn’t mean it’s set in stone they’ll lose. They can still win. It just means they’re in serious jeopardy. It’s a political temperature measure as it were that indicates fever and thus illness.
I think if the incumbant is under 50% it tells you that there might not be much enthusiasm to get out and vote for the candidate.
If we can take CA, NV, WI, WA I think we’ll take the Senate.
Fiorina hasn’t run the, “Don’t Call Me Ma’am, call me Senator” ad yet.
Awesome news! I hope Carly is ready for the dirty tricks that will for sure come her way as Election Day nears.
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