Posted on 08/19/2010 5:39:29 PM PDT by markomalley
BOULDER, Colo., Aug. 19 (UPI) -- Climate scientists say new computer simulation software released by U.S. researchers will be a primary tool as they prepare to study climate change models.
The Community Earth System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., will be one of the primary climate models used for the next assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a National Science Foundation release said Wednesday.
The CESM is the latest in a series of global models developed during the past 30 years, jointly supported by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation. It was developed by scientists and engineers at NCAR, Department of Energy laboratories, and several universities, the release said.
"The Community Earth System Model is yet another step toward representing improved physics and biogeochemistry in a coupled model," Anjuli Bamzai, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, said. "As our understanding of climate-relevant processes improves, it is imperative to represent these processes in the model."
The new model's advanced capabilities will help scientists shed new light on some of the critical mysteries of global warming, researchers say.
The CESM, freely available to researchers worldwide, can be used to simulate the many components of Earth's climate system, including the oceans, atmosphere, sea ice and land cover.
Climate scientists rely on computer models to understand Earth's climate system because they cannot conduct large-scale experiments on the atmosphere itself.
Oh wow, a new way to manipulate more climate data..... /s =.=
http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm1.0/register/register_cesm1.0.cgi
The first 10k were wrong, so I figure we’re due for a win. :)
“The new model’s advanced capabilities will help scientists shed new light on some of the critical mysteries of global warming, researchers say.”
I really doubt it. These models are only as good as the assumptions that go into them. You have to remember that climate models exist in the first place because climate is not understood. So, lots of assumptions have to be made about some of the parts that are not understood to make the models workable.
Assumptions imply subjectivity and subjectivity is now driven in the climate sciences by politics rather than science. Unfortunately, climate models are mostly exercises in politics.
It will help shed some light on the mysteries of climate software.
Community Earth System Model
Anything with "community" in its name for no good reason, is suspect.
The Community Earth System Model....
Community? Odd choice dontcha think?
Can it tell me what the temp or other stats were on the day I was born? I didn’t think so.
When the truth is found to be lies...make up some new ones quick.
The most insightful model is WRF-ARW. You can get it here: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/download/get_source.html
Note: it doesn’t run on Windows, possibly except CygWin (a Linux emulator). You need Unix/Linux or Macintosh. A supercomputer is helpful, but you can run limited domains on an ordinary computer.
None, unless you feed that erroneous data into your model.
Looks like the Sun is honoring Mitch Mitchell.
Yikes....I blew that joke.
It was Mitch MILLER who died.
Why the hell would the Sun care about Jimi Hendrix's drummer?
BINGO. We have a winner. The key problem with all climate model output that I’ve seen is this:
(c) they can’t model clouds and cloud formation accurately, which is a big problem since clouds block most of the incoming energy from the sun during the day, and trap heat at night.
When a model can’t simulate cumulus convection accurately, all sorts of bizarre things happen. Severe droughts? Well, yeah, imagine summer in the South without thunderstorms. Tremendous floods? Well, yeah, in the rare event that these models do show thunderstorms, they’re totally disproportionate to real thunderstorms. Extreme hurricanes? Well, yeah, if ordinary thunderstorms don’t form to convect the solar energy from the surface to the upper troposphere, extreme hurricanes would do it explosively.
Stuff all the available measured weather records for the decade 1960-1970 into your wondeful new computer model.
No massaging or 'adjusting' allowed.
Let it run as long as necessary for it to determine the weather for the decade 1970 to 1980.
Compare the results to the actual measured record for that decade.
Rejoice or punt.
Then get back to me and we can talk.
Will it permit consideration of solar radiant energy flux, and its variations over time? Or is that too simplistic?
You've identified the problem.
Where skepticism is absent, and repeatability impossible, science no longer exists in that place.
What? no simulation of the effect of clouds?
Next to oceans, the major driver of weather and climate?
Ping for later, or earlier... Let’s just say not so late.
In all fairness, it might be. It's even odds that it exists; either warming or cooling in cycles forever.
The only planet with unchanging climate is a dead planet.
The real topic is anthropogenic warming, which is the only potential justification for the controllers and exploiters for power to use to control us common folk.
Social planners and manipulators. The "1984" types.
GIGO
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.