Posted on 08/15/2010 6:35:42 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
TAMPA - A new poll shows Marco Rubio slipping ahead of Gov. Charlie Crist in the U.S. Senate race for the first time.
It also suggests that Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami is turning around his race against Palm Beach real estate investor Jeff Geene in the Democratic Senate primary, moving to a double-digit lead after trailing Greene by substantial margins for the last several weeks.
The poll also indicates that Crist, a no-party candidate, is heavily dependent on support from Democrats, and if Democratic voters move toward a nominee of their own party, Crist's support will erode.
Crist has long been unusually popular among Democratic voters -- black voters in particular -- for a lifelong Republican.
But the new poll results show he may have trouble hanging onto enough Democratic voters to make up for the loss of GOP support caused by his move away from the Republican Party.
The numbers:
• With Meek as the Democratic nominee, the poll shows Rubio, a Republican, leading a three-way race against Meek and Crist by a statistically significant margin -- Rubio 38 percent, Crist 33 percent, Meek 18 percent and 11 percent undecided.
• With Greene as the Democratic nominee, Crist remains in first place, but by a margin so narrow it's a statistical tie -- Crist 39 percent, Rubio 38 percent, Greene 12 percent and 11 percent undecided.
• In the Democratic primary, Meek leads Greene by 40 percent to 26 percent, with 6 percent choosing other candidates and 28 percent still undecided.
The poll was done for a group of news media clients by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, considered by many political insiders to be the most reliable company that publishes Florida political polls.
It included interviews with 625 likely voters Monday through Wednesday , with an error margin of 4 percentage points; the Democratic primary questions, with a smaller sample, would carry a 5-point error margin.
A May Mason-Dixon poll showed Crist with a significant lead in a matchup against Rubio and Meek – 38 percent to Rubio's 32 percent and Meek's 19 percent.
Most other recent polls have also shown Crist maintaining a lead in the general election matchup.
Prior to this poll, the average of polls reported on the Real Clear Politics Web site gave Crist an advantage of 4.5 points in the race.
Crist appears to be suffering from "tying himself close to President Obama on the economic stimulus plan and the Gulf oil spill clean-up efforts," said pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon.
In the aftermath of the spill, approval numbers for both Obama and Crist have dropped. A section of the poll released Friday showed approval of Crist's performance as governor hitting their lowest point ever; today's numbers showed voters' favorable opinions of him also declining, to 39 percent.
How Florida's Democratic voters react in the unusual three-way race as the Nov. 2 general election nears is likely to be the deciding factor, said pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon.
Crist has said that he thinks his support in the Senate race comes about equally from Democrats and Republicans, but the new Mason-Dixon poll shows him heavily dependent on Democratic support. Of those who backed him, 61 percent were Democrats, 16 percent were Republicans and 23 percent no-party or minor-party voters.
Can Crist hang onto those Democratic voters? He's still the most popular of the three candidates among Democratic voters, but his lead is narrowing, Coker said.
If Greene is the nominee, Crist gets 61 percent of the Democrats.
With Meek in the race, 45 percent of the Democrats polled supported Crist, 36 percent back Meek and 7 percent back Rubio.
If Meek wins the Democratic nomination, Coker said, it's likely to increase his share of the Democratic vote, "probably drawing some of it away from Crist."
Meek, who would be Florida's first elected black senator, also is likely to draw black voters away from Crist if Meek becomes the nominee and raises his profile.
In this poll, Crist drew 19 percent of black voters – but, Coker said, it's questionable whether Crist can continue to draw that percentage in a race against Meek.
Rubio, meanwhile, is solidifying his grip on Republican support in the race. Among Republicans polled, 71 percent favored Rubio compared to 14 percent for Crist.
In a three-way general election race, Coker noted, a candidate could win with as little as 34 percent of the vote, if the other two candidates split the remaining vote evenly.
But, Coker noted, "With Crist currently at 33 percent and questions about his ability to hold Democratic and African-American support if Meek wins the primary, it will be tough for Crist to thread that needle."
After Crist backed up Obama on his statements about the mosque at Ground Zero, I saw the story about Obama backtracking what he said originally. Apparently, Crist is even more in the tank for the Islamicists than Obama.
Is your estimation (being generous) for the primary or for the general? If it is for either, how about backing up your statement with a few of those stubborn little things (facts).
It’s important to defeat Crist.
Otherwise I think he is the Soros backed third party candidate for President in 012 attempting to give Baraq a Clintonian plurality win.
[singing] Charlie Charlie, oh oh oh, he gotta go now, yi yi yi yi yi...
Thanks PJ-Comix.
This race is a win-win situation — if Rubio wins, the nutjobs here will start their non-stop round-the-calendar round-the clock pissing and moaning about Rubio’s pro-immigration stands; if Crist wins, the nutjobs here will blame Rubio for throwing in with the pro-amnesty crowd; if the Demwit wins, it’ll be Rubio’s fault, same reason...
That’s a lot of movement in a short period of time. Seems to me it was only 2 or 3 weeks ago that Crist was ahead in the same 3-way by 4 or 5 points.
From the little that I have heard down here, West is well behind.
My Democrat neighbors can’t stand Crist and I will tell them to vote for Meek to get rid of Crist. They will definitely do it. They are voting for Rubio as they said Obama screwed them over with the healthcare and they are upset with his stance on illegal immigration.
Lol David Osborn here at fr is sponsoring another candidate that want a debate..sounds like Rubio will not debate..
I wish Republicans had understood this when Arnold first ran for office.
Closed primaries in Florida.
This is great news and I expect that Rubio will slowly pull farther ahead as the campaign progresses.
I’m going to claim some bragging rights here- I was one of the first Freepers (perhaps the first) to support Rubio over Crist, even though Crist appeared to be more electable.
Thanks for the info. Here is more background.
How does one “fix” a lightening strike in Cuba without spending any money?
One set of rules for me, another set of rules for thee.
Crist’s slobbering on Obama’s backside in offering him cover for the GZM endorsement will not play well. Anticipate further erosion of Good Time Charlie’s numbers in the coming week.
But would Meek be a shoe-in for the win? If not.....will Kendrick suddenly find himself under the bus do you think?????
“This is great news and I expect that Rubio will slowly pull farther ahead as the campaign progresses.”
Rubio looked a lot more impressive to me back in April when he first began to appear on the scene. He was running as a real conservative, constitutionalist. Since then, he has become very measured in his responses and his answers have become “Bushified”. He doesn’t seem to realize that, with Crist in this race, this will be a “base” election. If he does not motivate the base and turn them out, he will lose to Crist. Being wishy washy on lifting the moratorium and opposing the Arizona law has cost him. He needs to jump start his flagging campaign. Sarah Palin could do this for him, but he must have received strict orders from Jeb not to call upon her.
I hope Rubio wins. He is far better than the chameleon, crypto-lib Crist. He should be far ahead of “Benedict Charlie” but instead he is within the margin of error and probably a little behind. Unless he gives the Bushes a wide berth and begins to fearlessly articulate constitutional conservative principles, I am afraid he is going to lose.
If Rubio can closely tie Charlie Crist to Barack Obama, he can alienate Crist from moderate independent voters who are anti-Obama.
Before a general election strategy can be carried out, it’s important to see how the primaries turn out.
“If Rubio can closely tie Charlie Crist to Barack Obama, he can alienate Crist from moderate independent voters who are anti-Obama.”
It doesn’t really matter how the primaries turn out. The Democrat Party is famous for gaming the results. Remember the Torricelli switch in New Jersey and the Carnahan dead man vote with the widow taking the seat in MO.
A midyear election is all about turnout. Rubio is running a campaign that will DEPRESS turnout among conservatives. Some others will figure that if there is not much difference between Rubio and Obama/Crist on Immigration or on the Moratorium, they will just vote Crist.
Also, remember this....If Crist is close to Rubio in October and Meek or Greene are far behind, Obama may very well orchestrate the withdrawal of the Dem candidate at the critical time to give Crist the boost he needs (exactly what Perot did for Clinton in the summer of 1992 by withdrawing; It propelled Clinton from third place to first place.)
These Dem hacks are pros at this and Rubio seems a little slow on the uptake, which infuriates me. He had better stop the pussyfooting and start running as a conservative NOW before it is too late. (And it may already be too late.)
I am tremendously frustrated that this Bush “reach for the middle” strategy that the hapless Rubio is pursuing is poised to turn a GOP seat over to the Dems.
You make an interesting point, but if Obama were to facilitate the withdraw of an African-American candidate to assist a white one, it could really depress turnout among that voter base. The ‘Rat Party may avoid such a move for that reason alone.
I’m surprised to see Rubio getting such bad advice. I guess that being new to national statewide politics can make a candidate receptive to such a thing. Can prominent conservatives gain access to Rubio and persuade on the error of this approach?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.