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I'm posting the Master List in a different format this week. I've used our composite "Expert" rankings as the sort so that the MOST FAVORABLE races are at the TOP and LEAST FAVORABLE races are at the BOTTOM. The ones at the top are probably in the bag and the ones at the bottom are going to need a lot of work and a lot of money. The ones in the MIDDLE are where the real fight is at this point. Those LIGHT BLUE Toss-Ups are the Toss-Ups that are still leaning slightly to the Dem side. But anything in the BLUE or PINK Toss-Up category could and should be a Republican win. And some of those Leans Ds as well. Stay tuned.

# District Dem Primary Winner Incumbent
or Open		 Republican Incumbent or Challengers ALL Primary Experts District #
Or Incumbent Main Challenger Challenger Challenger
1 OH 2 Surya Yalamanchili Incumbent R Jean Schmidt OH 4-May Safe R OH 2 1
2 FL 12 Dem Primary Open R Dennis Ross Randy Wilkinson John Lindsey Jr. FL 24-Aug Likely R FL 12 2
3 MN 6 Tarryl Clark Incumbent R Michele Bachmann MN 10-Aug Likely R MN 6 3
4 TN 6 Brett Carter Open D Diane Black TN 5-Aug Likely R TN 6 4
5 NE 2 Tom White Incumbent R Lee Terry NE 11-May Likely R NE 2 5
6 AR 2 Joyce Elliott Open D Tim Griffin AR 18-May Likely R AR 2 6
7 LA 3 Open D (Melancon) Open D Hunt Downer Jeff Landry Kristian Magar LA 28-Aug Likely R LA 3 7
8 PA 6 Manan Trivedi Incumbent R Jim Gerlach PA 18-May Likely R PA 6 8
9 CA 3 Ami Bera Incumbent R Dan Lungren CA 8-Jun Leans R CA 3 9
10 NY 29 Open D (Massa) Open D Tom Reed Angelo Campini George Winner NY 14-Sep Leans R NY 29 10
11 WA 8 Dem Primary Incumbent R Dave Reichert WA 17-Aug Leans R WA 8 11
12 FL 25 Dem Primary Open R David Rivera Paul Crespo Marili Cancio (I) FL 24-Aug Leans R FL 25 12
13 OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Steve Stivers OH 4-May Leans R OH 15 13
14 CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Cory Gardner CO 10-Aug Leans R CO 4 14
15 KS 3 Stephene Moore Open D Kevin Yoder KS 3-Aug Leans R KS 3 15
16 MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Andy Harris Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio Jeff Ghrist MD 14-Sep Leans R MD 1 16
17 NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Steve Pearce NM 1-Jun Leans R NM 2 17
18 OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Steve Chabot OH 4-May Leans R OH 1 18
19 IN 8 W. Trent Van Haaften Open D Dr. Larry Bucshon IN 4-May Toss-Up IN 8 19
20 MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Alan Nunnelee MS 1-Jun Toss-Up MS 1 20
21 ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Rick Berg ND 8-Jun Toss-Up ND AL 21
22 NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Frank Guinta Sean Mahoney Rich Ashooh NH 14-Sep Toss-Up NH 1 22
23 NH 2 Open D (Paul Hodes) Open D Jennifer Horn Charlie Bass Bob Giuda NH 14-Sep Toss-Up NH 2 23
24 TN 8 Roy Herron Open D Stephen Fincher TN 5-Aug Toss-Up TN 8 24
25 VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Robert Hurt VA 8-Jun Toss-Up VA 5 25
26 FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Sandy Adams Karen Deibel Craig Miller FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 24 26
27 MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Tim Walberg MI 3-Aug Toss-Up MI 7 27
28 NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Dr. Joe Heck NV 8-Jun Toss-Up NV 3 28
29 PA 7 Bryan Lentz Open D Pat Meehan PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 7 29
30 PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Lou Barletta PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 11 30
31 FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Daniel Webster Kurt Kelly Bruce O’Donoghue FL 24-Aug Toss-Up FL 8 31
32 IL 10 Dan Seals Open R Bob Dold IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 10 32
33 MI 1 Gary McDowell Open D Dr. Daniel Benishek Jason Allen RECOUNT MI 3-Aug Toss-Up MI 1 33
34 NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Richard Hanna NY 14-Sep Toss-Up NY 24 34
35 TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Bill Flores TX 13-Apr Toss-Up TX 17 35
36 VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Scott Rigell VA 8-Jun Toss-Up VA 2 36
37 WA 3 Open D (Baird) Open D Jaime Herrera David Castillo David Hedrick WA 17-Aug Toss-Up WA 3 37
38 WI 7 Open D (Obey) Open D Sean Duffy Dan Mielke WI 14-Sep Toss-Up WI 7 38
39 AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Martha Roby AL 1-Jun Toss-Up AL 2 39
40 AR 1 Chad Causey Open D Rick Crawford AR 18-May Toss-Up AR 1 40
41 IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Adam Kinzinger IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 11 41
42 IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Randy Hultgren IL 2-Feb Toss-Up IL 14 42
43 SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Kristi Noem SD 8-Jun Toss-Up SD AL 43
44 HI 1 Colleen Hanabusa Incumbent R Charles Djou HI 18-Sep Toss-Up HI 1 44
45 PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Mike Kelly PA 18-May Toss-Up PA 3 45
46 WV 1 Mike Oliverio Open D David B. McKinley WV 11-May Toss-Up WV 1 46
47 IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Todd Young IN 4-May Toss-Up IN 9 47
48 NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Harold Johnson NC 4-May Toss-Up NC 8 48
49 OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Jim Renacci OH 4-May Toss-Up OH 16 49
50 SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Mick Mulvaney SC 8-Jun Toss-Up SC 5 50
51 AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Jonathan Paton Jesse Kelly Brian Miller AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 8 51
52 FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Eddie Hendry David Scholl Steve Southerland FL 24-Aug Leans D FL 2 52
53 IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Brad Zaun IA 8-Jun Leans D IA 3 53
54 MA 10 Open D (Delahunt) Open D Jeff Perry Joe Malone Ray Kasperowicz MA 14-Sep Leans D MA 10 54
55 AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D David Schweikert Susan Bitter Smith Dr. Chris Salvino AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 5 55
56 CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D David Harmer CA 8-Jun Leans D CA 11 56
57 ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Raul Labrador ID 25-May Leans D ID 1 57
58 NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Nan Hayworth Thomas DeChiaro NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 19 58
59 OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Bob Gibbs OH 4-May Leans D OH 18 59
60 VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Morgan Griffith VA 8-Jun Leans D VA 9 60
61 PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Timothy Burns PA 18-May Leans D PA 12 61
62 AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Rusty Bowers Bradley Beauchamp Paul Gosar AZ 24-Aug Leans D AZ 1 62
63 DE AL Dem Primary Open R Glen Urquhart Michele Rollins Rose Izzo DE 14-Sep Leans D DE AL 63
64 MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Vicky Hartzler MO 3-Aug Leans D MO 4 64
65 NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Jon Runyan NJ 8-Jun Leans D NJ 3 65
66 NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Jon Barela NM 1-Jun Leans D NM 1 66
67 NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Randy Altschuler George Demos Chris Cox NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 1 67
68 NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Doug Hoffman Matt Doheny NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 23 68
69 PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Mike Fitzpatrick PA 18-May Leans D PA 8 69
70 VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Keith Fimian VA 8-Jun Leans D VA 11 70
71 CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Scott Tipton CO 10-Aug Leans D CO 3 71
72 IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Jackie Walorski IN 4-May Leans D IN 2 72
73 KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Andy Barr KY 8-May Leans D KY 6 73
74 LA 2 Dem Primary Incumbent R Joseph Cao LA 28-Aug Leans D LA 2 74
75 NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Chris Gibson NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 20 75
76 OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Tom Ganley OH 4-May Leans D OH 13 76
77 PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Tom Marino PA 18-May Leans D PA 10 77
78 WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Terri McCormick Roger Roth WI 14-Sep Leans D WI 8 78
79 FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Allen West FL 24-Aug Leans D FL 22 79
80 NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Mike Grimm Michael Allegretti NY 14-Sep Leans D NY 13 80
81 OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Scott Bruun OR 18-May Likely D 81
82 TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Francisco "Quico" Canseco TX 13-Apr Likely D TX 23 82
83 CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Dan Debicella CT 10-Aug Likely D CT 4 83
84 CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Sam Caligiuri CT 10-Aug Likely D CT 5 84
85 IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Joe Walsh IL 2-Feb Likely D IL 8 85
86 MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D "Rocky" Raczowski MI 3-Aug Likely D MI 9 86
87 PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Keith Rothfus PA 18-May Likely D PA 4 87
88 PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D David Argall PA 18-May Likely D PA 17 88
89 GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Austin Scott GA 20-Jul Likely D GA 8 89
90 TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Dr. Scott Desjarlais TN 5-Aug Likely D TN 4 90
91 MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Randy Demmer MN 14-Sep Likely D MN 1 91
92 NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Ann Marie Buerkle NY 14-Sep Likely D NY 25 92
93 CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Van Tran CA 8-Jun Likely D CA 47 93
Code Color Code Indicates
New Entry or Major Change Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List -0.289
Upcoming Primary or Runoff
Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary
Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat
Open Dem Seat
Updated 14-Aug-10
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5

1 posted on 08/14/2010 9:28:50 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 1776 Reborn; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ..

2 posted on 08/14/2010 9:38:45 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

good work...

word here in NY is most expect Hayworth (NY19) to take the seat- Hall is brain dead, the district is conservative and he can’t run on the anti-Bush campaign that got him elected the past two elections, despite his attempts...

many think Acuri, NY24, is also going down...


13 posted on 08/14/2010 10:08:21 AM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: InterceptPoint

? We’re not to the point of getting the House yet?

Disgusting.


15 posted on 08/14/2010 10:42:39 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: InterceptPoint

Thank you. I look forward to this chart every week.


25 posted on 08/14/2010 11:18:05 AM PDT by lovesdogs
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To: InterceptPoint
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
09-Apr-10 199 204.77 210 0.18% 25
16-Apr-10 199 205.09 211 0.22% 26
22-Apr-10 200 205.28 211 0.37% 26
01-May-10 201 206.22 212 0.73% 27
08-May-10 201 206.33 212 0.66% 27
19-Jun-10 203 208.44 214 2.29% 29
10-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.43% 29
17-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.34% 29
24-Jul-10 203 209.25 215 3.37% 30
31-Jul-10 203 209.06 215 2.96% 30
07-Aug-10 203 209.15 215 3.11% 30
14-Aug-10 204 209.33 215 3.33% 30

And over in the Senate...

Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10		 GOP
Senate
Seats
EV		 GOP
Senate
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 51		 GOP
Gain
17-Jul-10 47 48.84 50 6.95% 7
24-Jul-10 47 48.95 50 7.69% 7
31-Jul-10 47 48.18 50 1.29% 7
07-Aug-10 47 48.13 50 1.46% 7
14-Aug-10 47 48.46 50 2.92% 7

-PJ

26 posted on 08/14/2010 11:23:01 AM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: InterceptPoint
I am experimenting with a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
31-Jul-10 207 212.12 217 8.64% 33
07-Aug-10 206 211.07 216 4.66% 32
14-Aug-10 206 211.04 216 5.02% 32

-PJ

35 posted on 08/14/2010 12:52:24 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: InterceptPoint
A little back of the envelope analysis of today's chart is in order.

Anything that is RED or PINK in the Experts column of today's chart means that the Republicans are favored to win. That's 38 races, 8 of which are Republican seats that we very, very likely to hold. A 'poor-mans' instant analysis would tell us that a 30 seat pickup is pretty likely (38-8) and that is about what we are hearing from "Experts".

So a reasonable person who wants to do the maximum to help the Republicans win the House back from the Pelosi crowd would start helping candidates who are 39 and below on the list: Martha Roby, Rick Crawford, Adam Kinzinger, Randy Hultgren, Kristi Noem, Charles Djou and so on down the list. That would seem to be where the payoff is. If you check out the current MONEY IN THE BANK for these candidates (just go to KeyHouseRaces.com and scroll down the list) you will see that, in general, the Dems are far ahead. We need to make up that differential.

38 posted on 08/14/2010 1:16:13 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Thank you so much for being faithful to post this. I went to the website and spent considerable time enjoying it. Thanks so much.


46 posted on 08/15/2010 6:04:00 AM PDT by no dems (To Every Democrat in the U.S. House and Senate: "Shame, shame. Shame on all your houses.")
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