# | District | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent or Open |
Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | # | |||||
Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||||
1 | OH | 2 | Surya Yalamanchili | Incumbent R | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Safe R | OH | 2 | 1 | |||
2 | FL | 12 | Dem Primary | Open R | Dennis Ross | Randy Wilkinson | John Lindsey Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 12 | 2 | |
3 | MN | 6 | Tarryl Clark | Incumbent R | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Likely R | MN | 6 | 3 | |||
4 | TN | 6 | Brett Carter | Open D | Diane Black | TN | 5-Aug | Likely R | TN | 6 | 4 | |||
5 | NE | 2 | Tom White | Incumbent R | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Likely R | NE | 2 | 5 | |||
6 | AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Open D | Tim Griffin | AR | 18-May | Likely R | AR | 2 | 6 | |||
7 | LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Open D | Hunt Downer | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Likely R | LA | 3 | 7 | |
8 | PA | 6 | Manan Trivedi | Incumbent R | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Likely R | PA | 6 | 8 | |||
9 | CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent R | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | CA | 3 | 9 | |||
10 | NY | 29 | Open D (Massa) | Open D | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Leans R | NY | 29 | 10 | |
11 | WA | 8 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | WA | 8 | 11 | |||
12 | FL | 25 | Dem Primary | Open R | David Rivera | Paul Crespo | Marili Cancio (I) | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | FL | 25 | 12 | |
13 | OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Steve Stivers | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 15 | 13 | |||
14 | CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Cory Gardner | CO | 10-Aug | Leans R | CO | 4 | 14 | |||
15 | KS | 3 | Stephene Moore | Open D | Kevin Yoder | KS | 3-Aug | Leans R | KS | 3 | 15 | |||
16 | MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Leans R | MD | 1 | 16 | |
17 | NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | Leans R | NM | 2 | 17 | |||
18 | OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 1 | 18 | |||
19 | IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Open D | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | 19 | |||
20 | MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Alan Nunnelee | MS | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | 20 | |||
21 | ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Rick Berg | ND | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | ND | AL | 21 | |||
22 | NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Frank Guinta | Sean Mahoney | Rich Ashooh | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | 22 | |
23 | NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Open D | Jennifer Horn | Charlie Bass | Bob Giuda | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | 23 | |
24 | TN | 8 | Roy Herron | Open D | Stephen Fincher | TN | 5-Aug | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | 24 | |||
25 | VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Robert Hurt | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | 25 | |||
26 | FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Craig Miller | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | 26 | |
27 | MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Tim Walberg | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | 27 | |||
28 | NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Dr. Joe Heck | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | 28 | |||
29 | PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Open D | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | 29 | |||
30 | PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Lou Barletta | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | 30 | |||
31 | FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Daniel Webster | Kurt Kelly | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | 31 | |
32 | IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | 32 | |||
33 | MI | 1 | Gary McDowell | Open D | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Jason Allen | RECOUNT | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 1 | 33 | |
34 | NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Richard Hanna | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | 34 | |||
35 | TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | Toss-Up | TX | 17 | 35 | |||
36 | VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | 36 | |||
37 | WA | 3 | Open D (Baird) | Open D | Jaime Herrera | David Castillo | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | 37 | |
38 | WI | 7 | Open D (Obey) | Open D | Sean Duffy | Dan Mielke | WI | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | WI | 7 | 38 | ||
39 | AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Martha Roby | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | 39 | |||
40 | AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Open D | Rick Crawford | AR | 18-May | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | 40 | |||
41 | IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 11 | 41 | |||
42 | IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | 42 | |||
43 | SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Kristi Noem | SD | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | SD | AL | 43 | |||
44 | HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent R | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | 44 | |||
45 | PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 3 | 45 | |||
46 | WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | Open D | David B. McKinley | WV | 11-May | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | 46 | |||
47 | IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Todd Young | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | 47 | |||
48 | NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Toss-Up | NC | 8 | 48 | |||
49 | OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Jim Renacci | OH | 4-May | Toss-Up | OH | 16 | 49 | |||
50 | SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Mick Mulvaney | SC | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | SC | 5 | 50 | |||
51 | AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Jonathan Paton | Jesse Kelly | Brian Miller | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 8 | 51 | |
52 | FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 2 | 52 | |
53 | IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Brad Zaun | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | IA | 3 | 53 | |||
54 | MA | 10 | Open D (Delahunt) | Open D | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Leans D | MA | 10 | 54 | |
55 | AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 5 | 55 | |
56 | CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | David Harmer | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | CA | 11 | 56 | |||
57 | ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Raul Labrador | ID | 25-May | Leans D | ID | 1 | 57 | |||
58 | NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Nan Hayworth | Thomas DeChiaro | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 19 | 58 | ||
59 | OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Bob Gibbs | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 18 | 59 | |||
60 | VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Morgan Griffith | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 9 | 60 | |||
61 | PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 12 | 61 | |||
62 | AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 1 | 62 | |
63 | DE | AL | Dem Primary | Open R | Glen Urquhart | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | DE | AL | 63 | |
64 | MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Vicky Hartzler | MO | 3-Aug | Leans D | MO | 4 | 64 | |||
65 | NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Jon Runyan | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | NJ | 3 | 65 | |||
66 | NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Jon Barela | NM | 1-Jun | Leans D | NM | 1 | 66 | |||
67 | NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Chris Cox | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 1 | 67 | |
68 | NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 23 | 68 | ||
69 | PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Mike Fitzpatrick | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 8 | 69 | |||
70 | VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Keith Fimian | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 11 | 70 | |||
71 | CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Scott Tipton | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | CO | 3 | 71 | |||
72 | IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Leans D | IN | 2 | 72 | |||
73 | KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Andy Barr | KY | 8-May | Leans D | KY | 6 | 73 | |||
74 | LA | 2 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | LA | 2 | 74 | |||
75 | NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 20 | 75 | |||
76 | OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Tom Ganley | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 13 | 76 | |||
77 | PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Tom Marino | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 10 | 77 | |||
78 | WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | WI | 14-Sep | Leans D | WI | 8 | 78 | ||
79 | FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 22 | 79 | |||
80 | NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 13 | 80 | ||
81 | OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Scott Bruun | OR | 18-May | Likely D | 81 | |||||
82 | TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Francisco "Quico" Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | TX | 23 | 82 | |||
83 | CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Dan Debicella | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 4 | 83 | |||
84 | CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Sam Caligiuri | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 5 | 84 | |||
85 | IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 8 | 85 | |||
86 | MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | "Rocky" Raczowski | MI | 3-Aug | Likely D | MI | 9 | 86 | |||
87 | PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 4 | 87 | |||
88 | PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | David Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 17 | 88 | |||
89 | GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Austin Scott | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | GA | 8 | 89 | |||
90 | TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | TN | 5-Aug | Likely D | TN | 4 | 90 | |||
91 | MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Randy Demmer | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | MN | 1 | 91 | |||
92 | NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Ann Marie Buerkle | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 25 | 92 | |||
93 | CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Van Tran | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | CA | 47 | 93 | |||
Code | Color Code Indicates | |||||||||||||
New Entry or Major Change | Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List | -0.289 | ||||||||||||
Upcoming Primary or Runoff | ||||||||||||||
Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary | ||||||||||||||
Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat | ||||||||||||||
Open Dem Seat | ||||||||||||||
Updated | 14-Aug-10 | |||||||||||||
Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | |||||||||||||
From | To | |||||||||||||
Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | ||||||||||||
Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | ||||||||||||
Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||||||
Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||
Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||
Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | ||||||||||||
Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 |
good work...
word here in NY is most expect Hayworth (NY19) to take the seat- Hall is brain dead, the district is conservative and he can’t run on the anti-Bush campaign that got him elected the past two elections, despite his attempts...
many think Acuri, NY24, is also going down...
? We’re not to the point of getting the House yet?
Disgusting.
Thank you. I look forward to this chart every week.
Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-Apr-10 | 199 | 204.77 | 210 | 0.18% | 25 |
16-Apr-10 | 199 | 205.09 | 211 | 0.22% | 26 |
22-Apr-10 | 200 | 205.28 | 211 | 0.37% | 26 |
01-May-10 | 201 | 206.22 | 212 | 0.73% | 27 |
08-May-10 | 201 | 206.33 | 212 | 0.66% | 27 |
19-Jun-10 | 203 | 208.44 | 214 | 2.29% | 29 |
10-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.43% | 29 |
17-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.34% | 29 |
24-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.25 | 215 | 3.37% | 30 |
31-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.06 | 215 | 2.96% | 30 |
07-Aug-10 | 203 | 209.15 | 215 | 3.11% | 30 |
14-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.33 | 215 | 3.33% | 30 |
And over in the Senate...
Most of Rasmussen's polls have the races outside the margin of error, but for those within the MOE, here are the movements during the past week and the separation in the polls.
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
17-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.84 | 50 | 6.95% | 7 |
24-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.95 | 50 | 7.69% | 7 |
31-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.18 | 50 | 1.29% | 7 |
07-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.13 | 50 | 1.46% | 7 |
14-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.46 | 50 | 2.92% | 7 |
-PJ
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
31-Jul-10 | 207 | 212.12 | 217 | 8.64% | 33 |
07-Aug-10 | 206 | 211.07 | 216 | 4.66% | 32 |
14-Aug-10 | 206 | 211.04 | 216 | 5.02% | 32 |
-PJ
Anything that is RED or PINK in the Experts column of today's chart means that the Republicans are favored to win. That's 38 races, 8 of which are Republican seats that we very, very likely to hold. A 'poor-mans' instant analysis would tell us that a 30 seat pickup is pretty likely (38-8) and that is about what we are hearing from "Experts".
So a reasonable person who wants to do the maximum to help the Republicans win the House back from the Pelosi crowd would start helping candidates who are 39 and below on the list: Martha Roby, Rick Crawford, Adam Kinzinger, Randy Hultgren, Kristi Noem, Charles Djou and so on down the list. That would seem to be where the payoff is. If you check out the current MONEY IN THE BANK for these candidates (just go to KeyHouseRaces.com and scroll down the list) you will see that, in general, the Dems are far ahead. We need to make up that differential.
Thank you so much for being faithful to post this. I went to the website and spent considerable time enjoying it. Thanks so much.