Key House Races - 14 August 2010 Update - We Have Primary Winners in CO, CT and MN

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 14 Aug 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

This weeks news:

Current Republican Net Pickup Projections:

• Saboto: 32
• Election Projection: 34
• CQPolitics: 29
• KeyHouseRaces: 32

STILL SHORT OF THE 39-40 NEEDED FOR A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE - BUT THE NUMBERS KEEP EDGING UP

We have made major improvements to the KeyHouseRaces.com Home Page - our 1-Stop-Shopping Page for the Races on our Master List.

• We've added CASH ON HAND to the funding data for the Republican and Dem candidates. Not a pretty picture yet - Dems are still ahead
   
• We added a YouTube Link for each Republican candidate. The videos are a mixed bag - some are very professional and some definitely not. But they are the best we could find. We'll gladly  take inputs in this area. If you see a better video of a Republican candidate than we are using let us know.

We have primary winners in CO-03, CO-04, CT-04, CT-05, MN-01 and MN-06. No really big surprises.

In MI-01 Dr. Dan Benishek has won the recount with a 15 vote margin over Jason Allen. But since Allen has a few more hours to ask for another recount we cannot call the race for Dr. Dan.

The Master List has been updated to include all the winners with exception of the MI-01 Republican. The "Race at a Glance" entries on the Home Page have also been updated to include the CO, CT and MN districts.

There were a fair number of changes to the Experts Ratings this week - 1 from CQPolitics,  8 from Election Projection, 3 from Cook and 1 from RCP. The last update we have from Sabato was July 8th (come on Larry - get with it). Rothenberg is also overdue - his last update was July 19th. The good news for Rothenberg is that he has a very nice new format for his ratings. A big improvement.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

• There were a total of 13 updates this week to the 93 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 9 were favorable to the Republicans
• 4 were favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our index to -.289 from last weeks -.301. So the Trend is Still Our Friend - the "Experts" keep revising their projections to be more favorable to the Republicans.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.

Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for the remaining August Primaries:

August 17: Washington and Wyoming

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont

August 28: Louisiana

[NoGrayZone]

"As we get closer to November's election all these guesstimates will merge and will, IMHO, predict a takeover of the House by the Republicans that will, in fact, be achieved."

From your lips to Gods ears....

[NoGrayZone]

"So our next big push will be to get the site noticed. We're not quite sure how to do that but but we have some ideas and we will be working on it (suggestions welcomed)."

Not much help, but I will post it on my FB. I have made many Conservative cohorts, just by friends suggesting friends, and I'm sure they made many as well.

[InterceptPoint]

Thanks. We will be on Facebook soon but I have a lot to learn about how to use FB to promote our cause.

[EDINVA]

It’s a little gimmick called “gerrymandering.” The Congressional District is cut out to favor one party or the other so no matter what, the candidate of that party is favored.

[potlatch]

Thanks I.P. and thanks for all your hard work!

[no dems]

Thank you so much for being faithful to post this. I went to the website and spent considerable time enjoying it. Thanks so much.

[padre35]

Well, wait for September, as voter opinions begin to really form, and keep in mind, the Dhimmis have a huge Campaign War Chest, the Dhimmis will be able to outspend their challengers and that does have an effect on the outcome of elections.

[princess leah]

I read elsewhere on F.R. that one major senate seat might keep the dems from passing a ton of crap in a lame duck session. That seat will best be had in Connecticut - so helping the Republican gal there financially is huge! Even $5 or $10 cash could help her out...

[Hush44]

Thanks for the ping, outstanding job

RE: NY20 videos
The one you have on the spotlight page is Chris’s better one (my personal fav- accepting the nom)while the one on the Races at a Glance page, while good, is rather choppy.

For FReepers looking to adopt a lt blue/contender district:
In NY20 Col Chris Gibson is really making headway against inc Dem Murphy. Altho Murphy is way ahead in $$ in the bank at present - a good share of that came in from PACs right after he switched his healthcare vote. In the 2nd Qtr Chris outpaced Murphy by abt $100k.

DC Pubs have now noticed the movement in this race, and Boehner will be up in Saratoga the 20th for a fundraiser.

~Kate

Col Chris Gibson ( Ret)
http://www.chrisgibsonforcongress.com/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO_SzyqjbG4

[InterceptPoint]

RE: NY20 videos: The one you have on the spotlight page is Chris’s better one (my personal fav- accepting the nom)while the one on the Races at a Glance page, while good, is rather choppy

You're right. I changed the At a Glance video to the one we have on the Spotlight page.

[CPT Clay]

IP.

I was looking through the spreadsheet and this site was missing.

http://www.michelerollinscongress2010.com/

Add it if you please. Her Bio makes her look like a formidable candidate.

Former Miss USA?

[InterceptPoint]

Thanks for the heads up. You will see the Michele Rollins link corrected in the next Master List update on Saturday.