Posted on 08/12/2010 6:46:23 AM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
1. Polls show Democrats at or near historic lows, but it shows the same for Republicans - and often times Republicans are lower (I'm speaking of the "party" fav/non-fav numbers). Will that not be a big hamper on us making historic gains this year?
2. Will "tea party candidates" really be a boon to Democrats? Or is that just ruling class/media spin? The polls seem to show the Dems with better chances against Angle than Lowden/Tarkanian, and also better against Rand Paul than against Trey Grayson. Ideologically, I'm MUCH closer to the tea party candidates, but in this day and age, I think you have to adopt somewhat of an Al Davis strategy....."just win baby". There's too much at stake.
Thoughts/concerns/comments??
Just watch the Dems actions. When they get really kooky, they are afraid.............................
“When they get really kooky...”
How can you tell. I mean, if their man campaigns in a body cast with his hair on fire...??? is THAT kooky by their standards?
When they veer off the road to reality and start making u-turns in the quicksands, they start name calling and doing anything except address the questions of the people. Like Jane Goodalll’s chimps they make a lot of noise and shake the trees to make themselves look bigger.............
The Dems control the WH and Congress. It is their economy and their policies, e.g., Obamacare, cap and trade, financial reform, government takeover of the automobile industry, banks, and insurance companies, and increasing the national debt by almost $3 trillion in the past two years. Unemployment rates are at 9.5% (U-3) and 16.7% (U-3). Voters will have a choice in November, i.e., more of the same for the next two years or a change of direction/stopping the Obama agenda.
The election will be determined by turnout. The Reps and Independents are more energized and motivated. The Rep strategy should be to run against Obama and his agenda. The Dems would like to change the subject and go after George Bush and blame him for everything.
Yes, polls and other data suggest a tsunami of voter anger sweeping the dems away in November.
BUT...
Remember, going into the 2008 elections, voters were just as PO'd at the dem-led Congress as well -- at one point its approval rating dropped into single digits. Yet, whaddayaknow... in '08, they added still MORE dems.
I believe conditions have gotten so bad in places like Michigan, now in Nevada, CA, IL and many other states, residents there don't care anymore which party's policies put them there... they just clamor to support whoever is first to promise a piece of the federal pie. No longer with an eye on the future, they're thinking.. "what puts food on my table now?.." thus, creating the broad culture of dependency the dems have craved for so long.
Just one man's analysis, but I bet I'll be close with these predicted numbers: GOP +30 in the House; and +4-5 in the Senate. The short-sighted stupidity of American voters can rear its ugly head at any time, and should never be underestimated.
I do remember you predicted Creigh Deeds would win the Virginia race.....
Yes, you are correct; very early on in that race I predicted Deeds would win because at the time Virginia was still trending Dem. As time went on and Virginians thankfully woke up, the tide was turned.
That speaks for Virginians -- the voters in this state learned and understood the folly of '08, but the rest of the country is not Virginia. Do you believe the country as a whole will follow suit? I do to a point, but I'm not getting too excited yet.
I stand by my November predictions. I hope I'm wrong and a tsunami actually happens. We'll compare notes on 3 Nov.
I think it’s at least even money that Republicans pick up the necessary 39 house seats, and probably 5-6 senate seats as things stand right now.
I believe that the choices will become more stark come September/October once all the primaries are resolved, we start seeing formal debates, and the heavy politicking is in full-force. I feel like things will turn against the national Democrat agenda even more in that scenario. Often times, mid-terms are “local” elections, but not this year.
I still think there’s a real chance (maybe 40%) that Republicans pick up 60 House seats and maybe 7-8 senate seats.
2012 sets up great for Republicans in the senate too.
Maybe, but even with Angle being as unpolished as she is, she still stands at least a 50/50 at taking down Reid. Rand Paul will win Kentucky. Ken Buck *should* win in Colorado....the real only x factor is the idiocy going on with the governor’s race on the GOP side. I’m pretty confident the GOP will pick up at least 4 senate seats, thereby preserving the filibuster.
The best poll to look at is the one Rove talks about everyday that shows an overwhelming majority of people believe the republicans have new ideas and better ideas than the last group of republicans in power. Blaming Bush won’t work.
People are willing to give the new republicans a chance.
Maybe.....but I tend to put the most credence in independent, public polls. Karl Rove is a great strategist, but he is a partisan.
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