Posted on 08/07/2010 2:49:00 PM PDT by Qbert
When a federal judge in California last week ruled the state’s ban on gay marriage unconstitutional, several political observers braced for a flood of Republican blasts on the issue that could end up resonating in campaigns nationally.
Instead, the anticipated GOP bang over the ban — known as Proposition 8 — amounted to little more than a whimper. There were angry columns and cries of protest from right-wing groups and conservative writers, but the majority of the Republican establishment kept on a bread-and-butter message — and party leaders are encouraging them not to stray.
It also was expected that Democrats, outside of deep-Blue states, would not press the issue in broad strokes — but the relative calm from a party whose last president called for a constitutional ban on gay marriage and denounced activist judges was telling about the meta-narrative of the 2010 cycle.
Things could change — it’s the doldrums of August, after all — and there’s a possibility the issue will be used surgically in certain districts. But this election cycle is focused, by both sides, on a swath of the electorate that isn’t driven by social issues — the independents — and the very real economic problems facing voters.
In California, the two leading GOP candidates — gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman and U.S. Senate nominee Carly Fiorina — issued muted statements.
On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” the day after the ruling, Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), who opposes gay marriage, said he thought it may come up in a “subliminal” way in campaigns and moved off the topic fairly quickly.
The national committees didn’t touch it in a real way — “I haven’t been following closely,” said one Washington GOP operative who works with one of the committees. Meanwhile Republican leaders made clear their strategy is staying on jobs.
"Every indicator that I have ... generally speaking is that economic growth and job creation are the tandem issues that will be the principal drivers of voter decision at polls,” said Republican National Committee political director Gentry Collins at a press briefing at the party’s Kansas City, Missouri, meeting Thursday.
"What I’m encouraging candidates to do is go out and run on an economic platform, a jobs platform."
In a Slate magazine piece in which John Dickerson interviewed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the conservative and long-serving Republican from Kentucky, he got a quiet response on Prop 8.
“McConnell was asked twice about the judge's ruling overturning Proposition 8,” Dickerson writes. “He could have talked about activist judges, a favorite conservative punching bag. The judge in this case is from San Francisco, a city that in some conservative circles is an epithet. In 2004, a ruling on same-sex marriage from the Massachusetts Supreme Court inspired President George Bush to call for a constitutional amendment outlawing gay marriage. McConnell, though, just said he thought voters would be more worried about the economy.”
The logic is simple. “Both sides fear this,” explained a senior Democrat. “(This) election is all about independents who are ambivalent on (certain social issues) right now."
A veteran national Republican strategist agreed, saying, “It raises an issue (Republicans would) rather not have to deal with ... (it’s) hard to walk to the line of opposing same sex-marriage and displaying enough tolerance to keep independents and Democrats comfortable enough to vote for you.”
Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, put it simply: “A modern party does not want a campaign that’s built around a crusade on gay rights. ... it won’t work, for one thing, and for another, it’s so controversial that it would obscure the nonpartisan appeal of the economic issue.”
He added, "I don’t think that moderates and independents get very excited about this.”
In fact, the people who tend to get the most excited on both sides are the party’s bases. Yet this year, in both the Republican and Democratic ranks, the bases are already raring to go.
“An issue like this would normally become a flashpoint in a campaign as a result of the need to draw a clear contrast between parties or candidates,” GOP strategist Kevin Madden said. “But the main issue mobilizing voters right now is the economy. ... Move your focus off of the economy, and you risk losing your best issue.”
King, the Long Island congressman, said that in terms of social issues, the raging controversy over the Arizona border laws is providing more than enough ammunition for Republicans in key districts.
“The Arizona immigration law is there, there’s no reason to be raising an issue of gay rights” as a wedge, he said.
One Republican strategist, who asked not to be identified, suggested that there will be areas where the Prop. 8 fight could have impact, and it may show up in specific cases.
“I ... think this issue plays differently state by state and congressional district by congressional district,” said the strategist.
A Democratic insider suggested that even with the Arizona border war, there are portions of the West and in states like Missouri where the Prop. 8 issue could become important.
And in some cases, it will work in reverse — in New York, where a gay marriage bill was shot down by a hefty margin last year but which has a heavy liberal Democratic base, the Democratic Party promptly used the ruling against Dan Donovan, the Republican attorney general nominee who is also pro-abortion rights and against gay marriage.
Hank Sheinkopf, a New York-based Democratic consultant, said it requires minimal lift on the part of the GOP to introduce the issue in certain swing districts, if it’s deemed necessary.
“It’s not like it was in 2004 when they purposely had 11 anti-gay marriage, anti-civil union initiations on ballots in multiple states to excite conservatives to reelect the president,” Sheinkopf said.
This time, though, the risk for the Democrats, he noted, is that it’s a midterm election instead a presidential one, which has different dynamics in terms of energy and turnout, and the president and his party “are wounded.”
That has sparked concerns among some Democrats that it will become a “dog-whistle” issue, something that can only be heard at a certain frequency but will pierce the brain when it does.
“I can see lots of pictures in ads and mail with happy (heterosexual) families” targeting church-goers, said one Democratic operative.
Maggie Gallagher, a conservative columnist and head of the National Organization for Marriage, has been helping lead the charge on the conservative right over the issue, insisting to USA Today a few weeks before the ruling that it’s “not just about California. This is a national case with national implications."
Yet Sabato noted that Democrats “have gotten pretty good at avoiding these hot-button social issues.”
And so far, that’s not coming to pass. Despite some breathless cable network coverage in the first 24 hours, there’s been little outcry.
“All of these other things are ornaments on the tree,” said Sabato. “The tree is the economy.”
And now, one judge has overruled the overwhelming will of the California people (people of all races and creeds, etc.), and this is met...with GOP silence. Regardless of what one thinks of gay marriage on moral and social grounds, it shouldn't be problematic to criticize the way the judge went about his ruling. The American people don't like dictators, czars, unelected judges and agency officials obliterating the rule of law and the will of the people. Supporting the democratic process should in no way detract from a focus on the economy (and in fact, should supplement it)- but until the GOP leadership understands this, they are equally part of the problem as well, IMHO.
But activist judges also resonate. The people feel that they are no longer in control of their lives. The economy is part of that. Activist judges are also part of that.
It wouldn't hurt to talk a little about how the Will of the People is being thwarted by the Left.
Ignoring it isn’t acceptable. Either the Judiciary is one of the top priorities or voters need to find Republicans that will make it a priority.
the GOP is dead. progressive ‘republicans’ are in charge and not one of them has any bawls.
the GOP needs to be gutted or tossed. anything less, you might as well vote for a democrat... because they’re both progressives
False.
Look at the reaction to SB1070 set aside.
In other words, ignore the issues of the day. What a spineless twit.
The Republican Party is lost in the woods.
They have no clear sense of direction and generally speaking are unprincipled.
They can send out surveys from here to Kingdom Come and it is pathetic that they need to poll on issues that simply make sense.
I will never answer one of their insipid polls, and I will never vote for any candidate for any political office that is not term limited.
I won’t give them any money either.
The GOP, a slower road to decay.
I’ll say one thing. My 25-year-old, lifetime habit of automatic, unwavering votes for the GOP candidate is no longer in effect. Between open-border Republicans and gay-marriage Republicans, I’m going to require 100% solidity on these issues. A GOP candidate that does not forcefully reject gay-marriage and vow to vote on a Constitutional Amendment to prevent it, will NOT get my vote, even if they are ostensibly conservative on all other issues. That is an absolute promise. That goes for all levels of office.
“There are many RINOs in the wings and they will just keep down low and be elected and not much is really going to change with the direction of this country. This is why the success of the Tea Parties is critical.”
Yeah, good point.
And I think one can support gay marriage or civil unions, and yet still be opposed to the process of this ruling. If people feel strongly enough about those issues, they should try to change people’s minds in their public lives, instead of supporting judicial activist decisions that set potentially dangerous precedents that can lead to a further erosion of democracy.
“”Why is it that every time a court or government branch does something to violate the rule of law, or overrule the will of the people, the GOP leadership has to go silent and effectively agree with result? “
—False.
Look at the reaction to SB1070 set aside.”
I don’t know if I fully agree with that, though. What did the GOP leadership really do to voice support for Brewer when the law was first passed and the media was calling her a Nazi and hammering her? So many on the right hid under the table. And even the support for Arizona now is mealy-mouthed by so many of the RINOs and establishment boys.
And why aren’t states like Texas making a big thing out of it, and passing similar laws?
You gotta wonder if some of them in charge or in the know in the Repub party might be as queer as a three dollar bill themselves?
Of course it does. The GOP is overrun with neutered, PC, spineless wimps who would rather try to play nice with the Republic's enemies in the CommieRat Party and the drive-by media, than to grow a pair and fight for what they once believed.
The GOP's leaders, from Steele on down, could be stand-ins for the guy in the "Is it Low-T?" commercials. Hell, Sarah Palin has bigger ba**s than the party's male so-called leaders. Cowardly, chickens**t, cave-in artists who'd rather switch than fight.
I could go on, but I'll stop there. I feel better for having gotten it out of my system.
Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!
You are exactly correct. The GOP went into immediate hiding on the Arizona matter, and didn’t lift a finger to support Brewer in those initial days (before some polls came out). The only exception to this was Sarah Palin, who stood with Brewer right away.
If they kept to the point of opposing activist judges that overturn the will of the people, they would have a winner.
Lots of people who don't care about or are even in favor of same sex marriage being legal understand that the majority of the people at the present time don't want it, and understand that using an activist judge to overturn a vote of the people is not a good thing.
They understand that these things can work both ways, and have to potential to be very dangerous down the road and could be applied in other situations, if government rules by the decisions of an appointed judge instead of the rule of law and the will of the people.
The Republicans should be able to craft a way of going against the judicial activism of the Proposition 8 ruling without looking like they want to force all the gays back in the closet. Isn't that what political strategists get paid the big bucks for?
“The only exception to this was Sarah Palin, who stood with Brewer right away.”
Yep. And a lot of them secretly despise Palin, too...
I'm 50. I voted for Bob Dole. I voted for every Bush that came along. I voted for McCain. Look where it's got me. The idea that people like me, who may possibly "stay home" are somehow delivering this country to the Left is just laughable. The GOP is delivering the country to the Left. And I'm no longer helping that process.
“The Republicans should be able to craft a way of going against the judicial activism of the Proposition 8 ruling without looking like they want to force all the gays back in the closet. Isn’t that what political strategists get paid the big bucks for?”
It really boggles the mind. Here they have an issue that an overwhelming majority of the people in a basically Blue State (including a huge percentage of black voters) is opposed to, and they roll over like the sorry losers that they are. Part of Ohio going voting Red in 2004 was issues on the ballot like this- Ken Blackwell understood this perfectly.
And who in the world is doing the Repub’s internal polling on this issue? They need to be fired ASAP.
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