Posted on 08/03/2010 7:44:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon rig spilled more oil from the Macondo well than anyone guessed, the Washington Post reports. Initially, the Coast Guard estimated a flow rate of 5,000 barrels a day, but the actual rate was at least twelve times that. The well released almost five million barrels through its broken riser pipe, turning it into the worst unintentional oil spill in history:
The blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico gushed 12 times faster than the government and BP estimated in the early weeks of the crisis and has spilled a whopping 4.9 million barrels, or 205.8 million gallons, according to a more detailed analysis announced late Monday.
BP’s Macondo well spewed 62,000 barrels of oil a day initially, and as the reservoir gradually depleted itself, the flow eased to 53,000 barrels a day until the well was finally capped and sealed July 15, according to scientists in the Flow Rate Technical Group, supervised by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Department of Energy.
The new numbers once again have nudged upward the statistical scale of the disaster. If correct — the government allows for a margin of error of 10 percent — the flow rate would make this spill significantly larger than the Ixtoc I blowout of 1979, which polluted the southern Gulf of Mexico with 138 million gallons over the course of 10 months. That had been the largest unintentional oil spill in history, surpassed only by the intentional spills in 1991 during the Persian Gulf War.
BP captured over 800,000 barrels of oil in its “top cap” operation from last month, about a sixth of the total amount spewed. Another 1.2 million barrels have either been skimmed, burned, or recaptured by other means. Some of the remaining three million barrels of oil has dissipated, probably through the Gulf’s natural ability to consume oil through microbes in the water, but the rest of it probably lurks below the surface and will remain there for a long while.
To put this in another perspective, the total amount lost in the Gulf represents what the US normally consumes — in six hours. The US consumes just under 20 million barrels of oil a day. That’s less than a couple of years ago, before the economic collapse curtailed energy demand, but still puts us in the number 1 position, almost three times more than China, our closest competitor for the resource (the latter data as of January 2009).
As the Post reports, the calculation of the spill has legal ramifications. At the least, BP will pay $1100 for every barrel spilled, assuming it didn’t act with negligence. If a court finds “gross negligence,” the fine ascends t0 $4300 per barrel. It’s the difference between $4.5 billion and $17.6 billion, and that is separate from the $20 billion fund to cover damage claims from the spill, which may or may not cover all of the claims.
BP has a big bill coming, and we have a lot of questions to ask about the quality of information coming from the administration’s response team in the first weeks of the disaster.
Update: HA reader GulfCoastTider reminds me via Twitter that BP didn’t make any estimates of oil flow during the crisis. I’ve corrected the lead paragraph to reflect that.
From the article:
” but the rest of it probably lurks below the surface and will remain there for a long while.”
Here we go again. Plenty of stats elsewhere in the article about how many millions of gallons spilled, but only conjecture about an unknown amount of oil “lurking” below the surface.
What magic chemical property of these Gulf hydrocarbons causes them to ‘lurk’?
I recognize that with the use of dispersants (ie chelating agent and detergents) the chemicals are suspended, emulsified or dissolved in the water ... but they are still bio-available to the microbes.
I guess the author is trying to maintain a fear-factor.
I’ll stick with the beer can in a football stadium comparison. (the amount of oil spilled versus the volume of water in the Gulf)
If they 'can't find the oil', it's probably still in the reservoir.
Sorry I don’t believe the numbers - gov just wants more money.
When all else fails, make up a number, then call and ask several buddies and at least one academic from Harvard if it seems about right and then publish the story.
The amount of oil from the gusher, there was no spill, is now and will forever be unknown
But, it proves there's plenty of good sweet crude right in our own backyard, and we never needed drop one from the sand snaggers.
But , then again, somebody (Sneakyman Inc.) knew that was a way for generating mucho cash for dirty deeds in the mid-east, etc..
The well is still there and is ready or soon will be tapped with another hole.
As time passes and the memory and bad news dissapates, the oil will flow in a controlled and usable manner.
The press concentrates on the blood and guts. They have not noticed the money to take care of all the damage will be quickly recovered after the flow resumes.
Now that they have a number, I wonder how long before the Zero administration hits BP with the $23.5 billion fine this calls for. Not wanting to provide a number is the biggest reason BP wants to shut the well down instead of trying to fix it as a productive one.
I was of the impression that a barrel of product was 45 imperial gallons, or 55 US gallons, or 208 litres. The bbl used in this report is 42 gallons: 190 litres if imperial gallons, or 147 litres if US gallons.
Is that some caribbean bbl, or am I mistaken here?
These are very significant differences, and the urinalist responsible should be held to account for the irresponsible and innumerate figures thrown out without any attempt to fact check.
You are confusing a drum with a barrel.
A barrel is 42 US gallons.
Apparatchiks (media) just can’t let this go. Still need that fear factor, the money, and the flakey no drilling excuse.
Crude oil is measured/sold by the 42 gallon barrel.......
The total of that spillage would fill a 300’ X 300’ X 300’ cube. That is a football field in length cubed.
My mistake then, or as Emily Litella would say:
“Oh well, nevermind.”
RIP Gilda.
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