The Key House Races 2010 - 10 July 2010 Update

KeyHouseRaces.com | 10 July 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

We've made a few updates to the Master List this week with some candidates dropping out and a few corrections. But nothing major. The Districts where there were changes are flagged by a RED MARKER in the far left column. 

There were a few changes in our "Expert" ratings by Sabato, Election Projection and CQ Politics. It is worth noting that we have seen nothing from Rothenberg or Real Clear Politics for several weeks. What's up with these guys? But Cook has been making small but fairly regular updates.

Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:

• There were a total of 7  updates this week to the 91 Congressional races that we believe are truly in play this year.
• 5 were favorable to the Republicans
• 2 was favorable to the Democrats

Those changes moved our Index further away from the Dems and toward the Repulicans - from last weeks -.357 to this weeks -.348. If you've been following our Index you will know that a "rating" of -.348 means that our full list of 91 Districts is rated as a Toss-Up by our "Experts" but a Toss-Up that is leaning in the Dem direction. If we get into positive territory or even in the low negative numbers with our Index it will mean a Republican takeover of the House of Representatives. So we watch the trends in this index weekly and they have been drifting steadily in the Republican direction. Three months ago the Index was at -.585 (a LEANS D rating) so we are making progress.

Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.

Worth Noting: The runnoff election between Martha Roby and Rick Barber for the Republican nomination for Alabama's 2nd District will be held on July 13th. You folks in that district need to get out and vote for your favorite.

A week later on Tuesday July 20th Georgia will be holding their primary. We have Georgia's District 8 on our Key House Races list so we will be watching that one for sure.

Here is the full schedule for August Primaries:

August 3: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri

August 5: Tennessee

August 10: Colorado, Conecticut, Minnesota and a Georgia Runoff if necessary

August 17: Washington and Wyoming

August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont

August 28: Lousiana

 

 

You can take a look at our Expert's Page below. The RED (favorable to Republicans) and BLUE (favorable to Democrats) highlights are this weeks changes to the ratings. Mostly in our favor.

District		Average	Average	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	District
AL	2	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	-1	-1	0	0	AL	2
AR	1	Toss-Up	0.0	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	1	0	0	0	AR	1
AR	2	Leans R	1.2	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	1	1	2	1	1	1	AR	2
AZ	1	Leans D	-1.3	Toss-Up	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Safe D	Toss-Up	0	-2	-2	-1	-3	0	AZ	1
AZ	5	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	AZ	5
AZ	8	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	AZ	8
CA	3	Leans R	1.2	Leans R	Leans R	Weak R	Leans R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	1	1	1	2	CA	3
CA	11	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	CA	11
CA	47	Likely D	-2.5	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-3	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	CA	47
CO	3	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-1	-2	0	CO	3
CO	4	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	0	0	1	0	1	1	CO	4
CT	4	Likely D	-1.8	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	-2	-1	-2	-2	-3	-1	CT	4
CT	5	Likely D	-1.7	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	0	CT	5
DE	AL	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	DE	AL
FL	2	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Safe D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-2	-1	-3	0	FL	2
FL	8	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	FL	8
FL	12	Likely R	2.5	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	2	2	3	2	3	3	FL	12
FL	22	Leans D	-1.5	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2	0	FL	22
FL	24	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	FL	24
FL	25	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Weak R	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	1	2	1	2	FL	25
GA	8	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	GA	8
HI	1	Toss-Up	-0.3	Leans D	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	HI	1
IA	3	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	IA	3
ID	1	Leans D	-0.7	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	ID	1
IL	8	Likely D	-1.7	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	-2	-3	-3	-2	0	0	IL	8
IL	10	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	IL	10
IL	11	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	IL	11
IL	14	Toss-Up	-0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	-1	0	0	0	IL	14
IN	2	Leans D	-1.5	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2	0	IN	2
IN	8	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	1	0	1	IN	8
IN	9	Toss-Up	-0.5	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	-1	0	IN	9
KS	3	Toss-Up	0.5	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	1	0	1	KS	3
LA	2	Leans D	-1.3	Leans D	Likely D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Likely D	Likely D	-1	-2	-1	0	-2	-2	LA	2
LA	3	Leans R	1.5	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	1	1	2	2	1	2	LA	3
MA	10	Toss-Up	-0.5	Leans D	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	1	-1	-1	0	MA	10
MD	1	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	MD	1
MI	1	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	MI	1
MI	7	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	MI	7
MI	9	Likely D	-1.7	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Safe D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-2	-3	0	MI	9
MN	1	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	MN	1
MN	6	Likely R	2.3	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	2	2	3	2	3	2	MN	6
MO	4	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	MO	4
MS	1	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	MS	1
NC	8	Leans D	-0.7	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Likely D	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	-2	0	NC	8
ND	AL	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	ND	AL
NE	2	Likely R	2.0	Likely R	Likely R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	2	2	2	2	2	2	NE	2
NH	1	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	NH	1
NH	2	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	NH	2
NJ	3	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	NJ	3
NM	1	Leans D	-1.2	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-2	-1	-1	0	NM	1
NM	2	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	NM	2
NV	3	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	NV	3
NY	1	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	NY	1
NY	13	Leans D	-1.5	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2	0	NY	13
NY	19	Leans D	-1.0	Likely D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	NY	19
NY	20	Leans D	-1.5	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2	0	NY	20
NY	23	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	NY	23
NY	24	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	NY	24
NY	25	Likely D	-2.3	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	-2	-2	-3	-2	-3	-2	NY	25
NY	29	Leans R	0.8	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	1	1	1	NY	29
OH	1	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	OH	1
OH	2	Safe R	2.8	Safe R	Safe R	Mod R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	3	3	2	3	3	3	OH	2
OH	13	Leans D	-1.5	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-1	-2	0	OH	13
OH	15	Leans R	0.7	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Leans R	Leans R	1	0	1	0	1	1	OH	15
OH	16	Leans D	-0.7	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans R	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	1	OH	16
OH	18	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	OH	18
PA	3	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	3
PA	4	Leans D	-1.5	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-2	-1	0	PA	4
PA	6	Likely R	1.7	Likely R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Leans R	2	1	2	2	2	1	PA	6
PA	7	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	PA	7
PA	8	Leans D	-1.0	Toss-Up	Likely D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	0	-2	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	8
PA	10	Leans D	-1.0	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	0	PA	10
PA	11	Toss-Up	-0.3	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Leans D	Leans R	0	-1	-1	0	-1	1	PA	11
PA	12	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	PA	12
PA	17	Likely D	-1.7	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	0	PA	17
SC	5	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Toss-Up	Leans D	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	-1	SC	5
SD	AL	Toss-Up	-0.2	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	-1	1	-1	0	0	SD	AL
TN	4	Likely D	-2.2	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Toss-Up	-3	-2	-3	-2	-3	0	TN	4
TN	6	Likely R	2.0	Leans R	Safe R	Mod R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	1	3	2	2	2	2	TN	6
TN	8	Toss-Up	0.5	Leans R	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	1	0	1	0	0	1	TN	8
TX	17	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	-1	1	0	0	1	TX	17
TX	23	Likely D	-1.7	Likely D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Safe D	Toss-Up	-2	-2	-2	-1	-3	0	TX	23
VA	2	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	VA	2
VA	5	Toss-Up	0.3	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans R	0	0	1	0	0	1	VA	5
VA	9	Leans D	-0.8	Leans D	Leans D	Weak D	Leans D	Leans D	Toss-Up	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	0	VA	9
VA	11	Leans D	-1.5	Leans D	Likely D	Mod D	Leans D	Safe D	Toss-Up	-1	-2	-2	-1	-3	0	VA	11
WA	3	Toss-Up	0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak R	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	1	0	0	0	WA	3
WA	8	Leans R	1.3	Leans R	Leans R	Mod R	Likely R	Leans R	Leans R	1	1	2	2	1	1	WA	8
WI	7	Toss-Up	-0.5	Toss-Up	Leans D	Weak D	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	0	-1	-1	0	-1	0	WI	7
WI	8	Leans D	-1.3	Likely D	Leans D	Mod D	Leans D	Likely D	Toss-Up	-2	-1	-2	-1	-2	0	WI	8
WV	1	Toss-Up	-0.2	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Weak D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	0	0	-1	0	0	0	WV	1
District		Average	Average	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	Sabato	CQP	EP.com	Cook	Rothenberg	RCP	District
Average		Toss-Up	-0.348	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up
Updated		10-Jul-10		-0.400	-0.622	-0.333	-0.400	-0.667	0.322
Rating and Color Code			Average Expert
			Rating
			From	To
Safe D			-3	-2.5
Likely D			-2.5	-1.5
Leans D			-1.5	-0.5
Toss-Up			-0.5	0
Toss-Up			0	0.5
Leans R			0.5	1.5
Likely R			1.5	2.5
Safe R			2.5	3.5

[InterceptPoint]

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[InterceptPoint]

Another ping. Freepmail me if you want on or off our list.

[nikos1121]

Thank you for this. A quick look makes me think that there are more races going democrat...but I might be wrong..

[God luvs America]

great job on this chart and you can tell a lot of effort goes into it- I’d like to make one recommendation...

I don’t know if these seats are all presently held by the rats or a combination of all seats up for grabs in November...if it is the latter maybe you can shade the box which lists the district red or blue, depending on who now holds the seat...

[freespirited]

I think we’ll see these “experts” changing their minds on AZ 1,5 & 8 now that Holder-Obama have filed their dumb@ss lawsuit against the Arizona immigration law. I won’t be surprised to see all three of these RAT seats go Republican in November.

I think the other two RAT seats are heavily Hispanic districts and will probably not be affected, but Giffords, Mitchell, and Kirkpatrick will be lucky to survive the machinations of their own party.

[gitmogrunt]

FL 22...Allen West(R).....upset Victory pending.

[Alas Babylon!]

Worth Noting: The runnoff election between Martha Roby and Rick Barber for the Republican nomination for Alabama's 2nd District will be held on July 13th. You folks in that district need to get out and vote for your favorite.

That's my district!

Cook and EP are wrong. This district does not lean dem in any way. It is VERY conservative. Whoever wins Tuesday will win in November. I'm voting for Rick Barber, who will beat Bobby Bright (who is the most conservative dem in the House, but still a dem) easily. But even if Roby wins, she too will beat Bright.

[God luvs America]

also- keep an eye on NY18, presently held by Lowey and NY19, presently held by John Hall- both are very vulnerable this November....

I’m been speaking with the GOP here in Westchester (a bunch of dopes really) and the feeling is Lowey is really scared and she’s been getting a lot of resistance at her town hall meetings...

Also- there’s a woman doctor named Nan Hayworth running against Hall, who is disliked here...she’s got the intellectual and philosophical edge over him by miles but he’s backed with Soros money...the feeling is she still will take him...

[Old Retired Army Guy]

This stuff makes my eyes go crossed.

[Mariner]

Thank you for adding me.

[Alas Babylon!]

One other thing, Interceptpoint:

Could you explain to me what Cook’s table heading PVI stands for? For the Alabama 2nd, he has “Leans democratic”, but the PVI for this is R+16. What does that mean?

[InterceptPoint]

This stuff makes my eyes go crossed.

I understand - it is all a bit complicated.

But sometime before November 2010 you need to get those eyes uncrossed, focus them like a laserbeam on unseating socialist-Dems and then head to the polls for what we believe will be an historic election.

[InterceptPoint]

One more ping. Let me know if you want on or off our ping list.

[TribalPrincess2U]

Please keep me on the ping list.

[Alas Babylon!]

OK, I found this at Cook's site:

The Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index (PVI) Explained

In August of 1997, The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as a means of providing a more accurate picture of the competitiveness of each of the 435 congressional districts. Using the 1992 and 1996 major-party Presidential voting results, the PVI measured how each congressional district performed compared to the nation as a whole.

Using the results of the 2004 and 2008 elections, we have updated these PVI ratings and have even more information to draw upon to understand the congressional level trends and tilts that will help to define upcoming elections.

Developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata, the index is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years.

While other data such as the results of senatorial, gubernatorial, congressional and other local races can help fine tune the exact partisan tilt of a particular district, those kinds of results don't allow a comparison of districts across state lines. Only Presidential results allow for total comparability.

[eyedigress]

Hey marshal, who is the one for TN 6th. I haven’t made a decision but some clarity from your camp would be welcome.

[truthguy]

Leave me on for now.

[InterceptPoint]

I think the PVI scheme is in pretty wide use. In our case we are actually relying on our "Experts" to read the polls and apply the PVI method or something similar to come up with their ratings.

Using "Experts" is the best that KeyHouseRaces can do right now since there really aren't a lot of polls out there yet. But as we move forward to November this will change and while we will be keeping track of the "Experts" we will all be reading the polls ourselves and seeing what we can make of them. In the end it will be the polls that tell the story.

So our plans at KHR are to get set up to track the polls for all the districts on our list and to keep them updated and easily accessible. That's a big job but I guess that's what we signed up for.