Posted on 06/22/2010 12:11:38 PM PDT by Galactic Overlord-In-Chief
A Victory Enterprises poll conducted on June 17, 2010 shows State Senator Brad Zaun (R-Urbandale) leading Congressman Leonard Boswell by 9 points. When asked, “If the general election were held today for whom would you vote?” 41% said Zaun, 31.8% said Boswell with 26.8% being undecided.
Also only 28.6% of those surveyed said that Boswell deserves to be re-elected, with 52.3% saying it’s time to give somebody else a chance.
While there is still a large percentage of people who are undecided, this polling doesn’t bode well for Boswell in a year where the Democrat brand has been damaged due to overspending and Obamacare and an anti-incumbent tone. Zaun is well positioned to be extremely competitive.
What should make this polling even more troubling for the Boswell campaign is the demographic breakdown:
The respondents were 43% Democrat, 38% Republican and 19% Independent. In addition, 48% were male and 52% female. 66% of the respondents were from Polk County with the remaining 34% balanced, according to previous off-year turnout models, from the remaining eleven counties that make-up the 3rd District. Age breakouts were as follows:
18-34 – 13.3% 35-49 – 25.8% 50-63 – 32.0% 64+ – 29.0%
With more Democrats being polled than Republicans, and more women than men it Boswell should be concerned that he trails by 9 points at this point in the race.
This is internal polling commissioned by the Zaun campaign, but I did say earlier after the primary, that I would never doubt his internal polling again since it was pretty dead on. I’m keeping my word.
(Excerpt) Read more at caffeinatedthoughts.com ...
It’s an internal poll, but I’ve seen several House Dems in similar trouble, so this doesn’t strike me as unbelievable.
That’s a lot of undecideds. Still inconclusive, in my view.
Boswell has won his last few elections narrowly even in strong Democrat years. This year Chuck Grassley and Terry Branstad will both win by wide margins and will carry Brad Zaun along with them.
Key race ping
Now all we as Iowan have to do is get rid of Harkin and Tommy Miller(Atty Gnl).
and we are working to get Ben Lange elected, also, to dump the azzhat braley.
The bigger problem is the mindless, uneducated liberal bots that support him here in our state.
They need to be re educated and perhaps put into intensive therapy.
Kind of like how I envision the North Korean populace to be.
Amen to that brother.
Now all we as Iowan have to do is get rid of Harkin and Tommy Miller(Atty Gnl).
And our Democratic Governor is doing a fine job of eliminating himself.
These polls are starting to make our “Experts” look bad. Our current ratings for this race are 4x Leans D, a Mod D and a Toss UP from RCP. We have to hope that the poll is real and the experts won’t sit on their hands before they issue some updates.
The undecideds need to break heavily to the incumbent in order for him to pull it out. I doubt that will happen in this atmosphere. Now, you might say this many undecideds makes it too unstable a poll, but any poll this far out is going to have this many undecideds.
What caused Culver to lose popularity in liberal IA?
It’s painful for an incumbent to poll barley above 30.
If 2006 and 2008 weren’t terrible years Boswell may have lost back then.
Things are bad and he and his party are in charge.
I think only once did Boswell ever break 60% in any of his elections, and that was in his pre-2002 configured district. For any significant portion of his voters to be undecided is incredibly bad for him.
Impy, among others who are highly knowledgeable, has written that the pollsters will have to get with the program eventually or else their reputations will be worth nothing. They don’t have to be right until election day.
I think there is a lot of denial and/or disparagement of the anger out there in the electorate. Conservatives don’t riot when they’re angry, they just seethe quietly and then vote.
I wish Barone would put out a list of projections.
looks like anothe pickup opportunity
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