N. Korea: The nightmare scenario (time to prepare for the hair-raising end game)

Economist ^ | 05/27/10

[TigerLikesRooster]

N. Korea: The nightmare scenario (time to prepare for the catastrophic end)

The nightmare scenario

May 27th 2010

From The Economist print edition

Time for North Korea’s friends and foes to start preparing for the worst

DID the warped Machiavellians of Pyongyang miscalculate when they launched the torpedo that blew apart a South Korean warship two months ago? Proof of one of the worst breaches of the armistice that ended the Korean war 57 years ago has roiled waters far beyond the Korean peninsula. Escalating tensions have even helped rattle global financial markets. Thus far, North Korea’s reckless belligerence has mostly been met with an impressive show of resolve by South Korea, Japan and America. But North Korea could yet raise the stakes again. Time for all of North Korea’s neighbours to start thinking of how they might together deal with some of the unthinkables they have hitherto tried hard to ignore (see article).

/snip

What if…

If China cannot have a grown-up discussion with America about something as clear-cut as the attack on the Cheonan, how much greater will be the danger of miscommunication in the event of something hitherto unthinkable happening: an outbreak of war, say, a nuclear incident, or the collapse of the regime. Anything that sparked fears of “loose nukes” or a refugee crisis, with American and Chinese troops aiming nervously at each other across North Korean territory, could quickly make the Korean peninsula the most dangerous place on earth. China ignores such risks at its peril.

/snip

But the Dear Leader is not immortal, and when he dies the succession is likely to be fraught with danger. At that point the neighbouring powers will desperately need to talk to each other through mechanisms that currently barely exist.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Bump.

[bert]

......how much greater will be the danger of miscommunication in the event of something hitherto unthinkable happening.....

Would you trust anything coming from the mouth or pen of Hillary Clinton? Obama has no international credibility.

[Travis McGee]

Thanks. I wonder if we’ll ever find out.

[painter]

You are funny. FreeRepublic wouldn’t be the same without you and Laz here.:)

[2harddrive]

I think they miscalculated when they launched the torpedo that blew apart the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf.

[Jim Noble]

I`d tell China that if they can`t reign in their trained monkey, then all those T-Bills and other debt instruments they hold are declared null and void

This is a very common belief around here - that the US holds some influence over China because of China's concern about their "economy".

I think that's absurd. If Chinese peasants have to eat grass for 100 years to advance world communism and to destroy the Main Enemy, I'm sure that's fine with the Politburo.

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!