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Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher
al.com ^ | April 30, 2010, 2:18PM | Ben Raines

Posted on 05/10/2010 2:48:21 AM PDT by valkyry1

A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf.

"The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."

Asked Friday to comment on the document, NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen said that the additional leaks described were reported to the public late Wednesday night. Regarding the possibility of the spill becoming an order of magnitude larger, Smullen said, "I'm letting the document you have speak for itself."

In scientific circles, an order of magnitude means something is 10 times larger. In this case, an order of magnitude higher would mean the volume of oil coming from the well could be 10 times higher than the 5,000 barrels a day coming out now. That would mean 50,000 barrels a day, or 2.1 million gallons a day. It appears the new leaks mentioned in the Wednesday release are the leaks reported to the public late Wednesday night.

"There is no official change in the volume released but the USCG is no longer stating that the release rate is 1,000 barrels a day," continues the document, referred to as report No. 12. "Instead they are saying that they are preparing for a worst-case release and bringing all assets to bear."

The emergency document also states that the spill has grown in size so quickly that only 1 to 2 percent of it has been sprayed with dispersants.

The Press-Register obtained the emergency report from a government official. The White House, NOAA, the Coast Guard and BP Plc did not immediately return calls for comment made early this morning.

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well pouring oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons -- per day.

* LATER REPORT: Video shows federal officials knew quickly of potential for massive oil flow in Gulf spill

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate.

"Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University.

On Thursday, federal officials said they were preparing for the worst-case scenario but didn't elaborate.

Kinks in the piping created as the rig sank to the seafloor may be all that is preventing the Deepwater Horizon well from releasing its maximum flow. BP is now drilling a relief well as the ultimate fix. The company said Thursday that process would take up to 3 months. View from above Gulf oil spill See continuing coverage of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill of 2010 on al.com and GulfLive.com.

To keep track of the Gulf of Mexico oil slick, visit www.skytruth.org or follow its Twitter feed.

To see updated projection maps related to the oil spill in the Gulf, visit the Deepwater Horizon Response Web site established by government officials.

How to help: Volunteers eager to help cope with the spill and lessen its impact on the Gulf Coast environment and economy.

"I'm not sure what's happening down there right now. I have heard there is a kink in what's called the riser. The riser is a long pipe that connects the wellhead to the rig. I really don't know if that kink is a big restriction. Is that really a big restriction? There could be another restriction further down," said LSU's Sears.

"An analogy would be if you have a kink in a garden hose. You suspect that kink is restricting the flow, but there could be another restriction or kink somewhere else closer to the faucet.

BP Plc executive Doug Suttles said Thursday the company was worried about "erosion" of the pipe at the wellhead.

Sand is an integral part of the formations that hold oil under the Gulf. That sand, carried in the oil as it shoots through the piping, is blamed for the ongoing erosion described by BP.

"The pipe could disintegrate. You've got sand getting into the pipe, it's eroding the pipe all the time, like a sandblaster," said Ron Gouguet, a former oil spill response coordinator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Gouguet said the loss of a wellhead is totally unprecedented.

"How bad it could get from that, you will have a tremendous volume of oil that is going to be offgassing on the coast. Depending on how much wind is there, and how those gases build up, that's a significant health concern," he said.

The formation that was being drilled by Deepwater Horizon when it exploded and sank last week is reported to have tens of millions of barrels of oil. A barrel contains 42 gallons.

Smullen described the NOAA document as a regular daily briefing. "Your report makes it sound pretty dire. It's a scenario," he said, "It's a regular daily briefing sheet that considered different scenarios much like any first responder would."

(Updated 5:57 p.m. to add response from NOAA spokesman.)


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: energy; noaa; offshoredrilling; oilspill
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1 posted on 05/10/2010 2:48:21 AM PDT by valkyry1
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(NaturalNews) Reports about the massive Gulf of Mexico oil spill have been largely underestimated, according to commentators, including Paul Noel, a Software Engineer for the U.S. Army at Redstone Arsenal in Alabama. He believes that the pocket of oil that’s been hit is so powerful and under so much pressure that it may be virtually impossible to contain it. And Noel is not the only person questioning the scope of this disaster.

Even the word “spill” is incorrect. This isn’t some ship of oil that spilled into the ocean — it’s a “volcano” of oil spewing from the belly of Mother Earth herself. It’s under extremely high pressure, it’s spewing a huge volume of oil directly into the ocean, and there so far seems to be no human-engineered way of stopping it (short of setting off an underground nuclear bomb near the well site).

The possibility of an extinction event?
It’s hard to say exactly what’s going on in the Gulf right now, especially because there are so many conflicting reports and unanswered questions. But one thing’s for sure: if the situation is actually much worse than we’re being led to believe, there could be worldwide catastrophic consequences.

If it’s true that millions upon millions of gallons of crude oil are flooding the Gulf with no end in sight, the massive oil slicks being created could make their way into the Gulf Stream currents, which would carry them not only up the East Coast but around the world where they could absolutely destroy the global fishing industries.

Already these slicks are making their way into Gulf wetlands and beaches where they are destroying birds, fish, and even oyster beds. This is disastrous for both the seafood industry and the people whose livelihoods depend on it. It’s also devastating to the local wildlife which could begin to die off from petroleum toxicity. Various ecosystems around the world could be heavily impacted by this spill in ways that we don’t even yet realize.

There’s no telling where this continuous stream of oil will end up and what damage it might cause. Theoretically, we could be looking at modern man’s final act of destruction on planet Earth, because this one oil rig blowout could set in motion a global extinction wave that begins with the oceans and then whiplashes back onto human beings themselves.

We cannot live without life in the oceans. Man is arrogant to drill so deeply into the belly of Mother Earth, and through this arrogance, we may have just set in motion events that will ultimately destroy us. In the future, we may in fact talk about life on Earth as “pre-spill” versus “post-spill.” Because a post-spill world may be drowned in oil, devoid of much ocean life, and suffering a global extinction event that will crash the human population by 90 percent or more.

We may have just done to ourselves, in other words, what a giant meteorite did to the dinosaurs.


2 posted on 05/10/2010 2:51:41 AM PDT by valkyry1
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To: valkyry1

Obama’s never ending Katrina. Obama administration exempted it from environmental impact studies:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2509752/posts


3 posted on 05/10/2010 2:52:47 AM PDT by Need4Truth (the just shall live by faith.)
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To: valkyry1
Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher

April 30, 2010?

4 posted on 05/10/2010 2:56:52 AM PDT by dread78645 (Evolution. A doomed theory since 1859.)
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To: valkyry1

Down the road if everything else fails, how about blowing the hole shut with a nuclear device. It will kill a bunch of fish but may prevent the oil from doing any more damage. Well just a thought, probably most of those environmental handwringers would not go for it.


5 posted on 05/10/2010 3:04:46 AM PDT by saintgermaine
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To: dread78645

Down the road if everything else fails, how about blowing the hole shut with a nuclear device. It will kill a bunch of fish but may prevent the oil from doing any more damage. Well just a thought, probably most of those environmental handwringers would not go for it.


6 posted on 05/10/2010 3:05:53 AM PDT by saintgermaine
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To: dread78645

a link in the report has this

Video shows federal officials knew quickly of potential for massive oil flow in Gulf spill

http://blog.al.com/live/2010/05/video_shows_federal_officials.html

what took Obama so long to act?


7 posted on 05/10/2010 3:06:19 AM PDT by Need4Truth (the just shall live by faith.)
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To: valkyry1

Obama was late in responding to what might well destroy the Gulf of Mexico. In short, he is one of the responsible parties. Had this been any other politician, the media would be savaging him.


8 posted on 05/10/2010 3:09:55 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and proud of it. Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Need4Truth

There is no way it should take three months to drill a relief well. It could be done a lot quicker with all out effort I think. I used to Captain a drilling supply ship. The relief well does not have to go as deep. Then they can just plug up the hole. I carried sections out there and they used it up quick.


9 posted on 05/10/2010 3:11:54 AM PDT by screaminsunshine (S)
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To: valkyry1

IMO they will drill enough wells around it to decrease

the pressure enough for them to cap it,,,

No other choice...


10 posted on 05/10/2010 3:15:33 AM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: valkyry1; Jeremiah Jr; sheik yerbouty; Armageddon
Already these slicks are making their way into Gulf wetlands and beaches where they are destroying birds, fish, and even oyster beds. This is disastrous for both the seafood industry and the people whose livelihoods depend on it. It’s also devastating to the local wildlife which could begin to die off from petroleum toxicity. Various ecosystems around the world could be heavily impacted by this spill in ways that we don’t even yet realize.

Revelation 7:1 And after these things I saw four angels standing on the four corners of the earth, holding the four winds of the earth, that the wind should not blow on the earth, nor on the sea, nor on any tree.
Revelation 7:2 And I saw another angel ascending from the east, having the seal of the living God: and he cried with a loud voice to the four angels, to whom it was given to hurt the earth and the sea,
Revelation 7:3 Saying, Hurt not the earth, neither the sea, nor the trees, till we have sealed the servants of our God in their foreheads.

11 posted on 05/10/2010 3:21:29 AM PDT by Ezekiel (The Obama-nation began with the Inauguration of Desolation.)
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To: IMR 4350; diogenes ghost; Cold Heat

Does the information in posts #1 and #2 do anything to change your mind about the oil in the Gulf? Seems like it could be approaching Spindletop proportions if the pipe breaks apart. Would that quantity of oil going into the water be comparable to what it was like before gulf drilling or is it a lot more than what used to occur naturally? What about the aerosol problem. Do you remember being able to smell the oil in the air or seeing it settle onto items like outdoor furniture?


12 posted on 05/10/2010 3:36:23 AM PDT by Natural Born 54 (FUBO x 10)
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To: Ezekiel

And the second angel poured out his vial upon the sea; and it became as the blood of a dead man: and every living soul died in the sea


13 posted on 05/10/2010 3:42:11 AM PDT by DainBramage
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To: metmom

ping


14 posted on 05/10/2010 3:43:28 AM PDT by valkyry1
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To: valkyry1
"...including Paul Noel, a Software Engineer for the U.S. Army at Redstone Arsenal in Alabama."

What exactly does a software engineer know about geology?
15 posted on 05/10/2010 3:44:56 AM PDT by flintsilver7 (Honest reporting hasn't caught on in the United States.)
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To: flintsilver7

He probably knows a lot about fluid dynamics and that’s whats going on here.


16 posted on 05/10/2010 3:49:11 AM PDT by valkyry1
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To: dread78645
Also posted May 3:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2505702/posts

But, no worries, Obama says BP will pay, so problem solved. What more could he possibly do? /s

17 posted on 05/10/2010 3:56:12 AM PDT by JustSurrounded
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To: flintsilver7

http://www.pureenergysystems.com/about/personnel/PaulNoel/

He has worked on ecological efforts to clean up severe pollution. He believes in taking care of the earth. His interests include a full study of physics, chemistry, biology, botany, and many other sciences. He has considerable interest in geology. He has traveled among the oil rigs of mobile bay and has been to their shipyards. He has been to the US Army Corps of Engineers experimental station just south of Vicksburg, Mississippi, and learned about the hydraulics effects of water and of earthquake effects. He has read extensively into the topics as well.

More at the link.


18 posted on 05/10/2010 3:57:50 AM PDT by EBH (Our First Right...."it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it,")
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To: valkyry1
well could become unchecked gusher

Sound like it already is.

19 posted on 05/10/2010 4:00:50 AM PDT by Right Wing Assault (The Obama magic is <strike>fading</strike>gone.)
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To: saintgermaine

How does blowing the well do anything but make it worse?


20 posted on 05/10/2010 4:02:08 AM PDT by Dusty Road
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