Posted on 05/04/2010 9:34:09 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand
My quant system said get into SPY at Friday’s close, but the trade got away from me yesterday when it went up big. Just got in this morning at 117.5, somewhat below Friday’s close. Got to get the edge wherever.
I agree. Long term technicals and valuations have not supported the recent run up. Short term technicals over the past couple of months have been sideways at best. Now we are seeing the market run out of “faith” in recovery and I see phase II of the retraction (dead cat bounce after math) starting with profit taking.
My current problems are:
1) My 401K does not allow a direct cash or commodities position
2) Technicals don’t seem to have identified a solid bottom yet. Like you said, 2009 low has already been blown through so what is next? I could make an argument for 9,000 as being the next support test but that is just chart gazing.
My current position is bonds. Yes I know ... but given the limited options available through my sucky 401k options .....
Looks like 1929 one day at a time.
That must have been yesterday’s report. Gold went nowhere but down from the opening bell.
yesterday’s gold report that is
Me buy? Are you kidding? LOL!
Can you explain this to a non-elliot wave guy? are you saying the 62% down is still coming from this point? or from some previous high and if so what high and what will the low point be of this move? thanks.
Oh, that's right, we still have the offshore drilling TAXPAYER "STIMULUS" SUBSIDIZED Soros-owned Petrobras action in the Caribbean.
Could you please explain that for the “Certain Ethnic” people like me?
Here is a good site to understand the basics of Fibonacci retracement.
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/FibonacciRetracement.asp
Oh thanks so much!
Going now for an education.....
If you pull up a weekly of the Dow and draw a retrace from the 07 high 14208 to the 09 low of 6418 you will notice that it retraced back up to 61.8% or 11232. It broke right through the 50% retrace (10309) whick means to watch the 61.8 closely for rejection. It could not have been a more precise rejection. I would anticipate a staggered retracement from the 62 down from here with a target at the 76.4% retrace (7558)or 88% (6997) if it blows through that and the double bottom we’re screwed.
No today’s
Posted: MAY 4, 2010, 12:08 P.M. ET
I figure the dollar took a 45% hit so I'll get in on stocks when they are really down about the same level.
same thing happend with health care stocks when Clinton tried to take over health care.
Sorry but I have no confidence in this country’s economy as long as it’s governed by a communist.
The conversion of the US economy from a market-driven free enterprise system to a government-based one has been going on for about 100 years. Even when you had confidence it was still running in the same direction it was running now only now more Socialized!
Here’s an explanation:
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/FibonacciRetracement.asp
The monthly DOW chart hit the 61.8% level on 4-26, which, in Fibonacci terms, is considered to be a major retracement between two extremes (2007 high and 2009 low).
The potential then exists for the continuation of the downtrend in the market that started with the 2007 high because nothing goes straight down or up.
Thanks!!!
Quality gibberish. Grazi!
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