(Election Projection) Rating change: GOP projected to win Murtha's seat (5/12 Special Election)

Election Projection ^ | 4/25/10 | staff

[randita]

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Rating change: GOP projected to win Murtha's seat

With the Pennsylvania preview comes one more projected GOP takeover. On May 18th, a special election will be held to fill the seat vacated by John Murtha's unexpected passing. The pundits call it a toss-up, but polls give Republican Tim Burns an slight edge over Democrat Mark Critz. As a result, the race moves to a Weak GOP Gain. I'm looking forward to seeing if the momentum displayed in Massachusetts in January will still be going strong in May in southwestern Pennsylvania. This change brings the projected House tally to 233 Democrats and 202 Republicans, a net gain of 24 seats for the GOP.

[GonzoGOP]

If it a toss up on the day before the election the challenger usually wins. People know who the Democrats are. If they are undecided it means that they are already uncomfortable in voting for the Democrat. I would like to see us up in 40+ races, but this doesn't look all that bad considering the amount of pork Obama has pumped into the dem districts and the slavish Dem worship in the press.

[shiva]

After I donate to Free Rebublic ( I already have ) , then I donate to the conservitives of my own personal choice. I no longer send my money to the GOP and Michael Steele.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Buckeye McFrog]

likely true, judging by how the lies and panicky rhetoric are the Democrat TV ads is hitting fever pitch

[Vigilanteman]

They were only in it for the pork. But I wouldn't toss it in the win column just yet. Murtha's tool (Mark Critz) is running at least three ads to every ad I see for Tim Burns. I have yet to see a Burns response to Critz's most damaging charge that Burns wants to put a 22% sales tax on everything you buy, including food, clothes and medicine.

I'm not sure where that BS charge came from, but Burns has to respond sooner or later. I suspect Burns may be friendly to the idea of a national sales tax which would replace the income tax. Intellectually, the concept of the FAIR tax is sound for people who are educated and understand economics. But it is really not something you want to discuss with your average dumbed-down voter at this point. I really hope Burns responds sooner rather than later.

[Eagles6]

Thanks for clearing that up, I was a bit confused as I knew Bill Russell was still running.

[AmishDude]

It’s simply the FAIR tax. It’s the typical demagoguery that one can launch against it. Of course he wants to replace the income tax, but Democrats are not honest and we can’t expect them to be. I’m against the FAIR tax but I also think it’s a distraction for a candidate to run on it in an off-year (or especially special) election.

[ducttape45]

This can’t be. Surely the GOP will pick up enough seats to retake Congress, won’t they?

[Gene Eric]

>> Nextrush: Conservative candidate William Russell should win that contest to face Critz in the fall.

Russell/PA-12 ping.

[GeronL]

I hope so

[jazusamo]

BUMP!

Thanks for the ping.

[randita]

Burns has plenty of money. He’s exceeding fundraising goals and is also a multi-millionaire in his own right. He’s also been getting funding from the RNCC. So there likely are other reasons rather than a lack of money that he’s holding back.

[Nonstatist]

a net gain of 24 seats for the GOP.

Heh? Seems kind of low..

[randita]

Most of the "experts" we're tracking at Key House Races are projecting gains of from 24-27 seats at this point. Election Projection is on the low end of the estimates.

I've seen info today about positive movement in a couple more races which they haven't included in their numbers yet - ND-AL (Nick Berg) and FL 20 (Allen West) both showing the the R candidate is ahead in the polls.

There aren't a lot of polls out there about House races yet. If these kinds of trends become more apparent, the R gain numbers will move up across the board. The magic number is 41.

[1010RD]

Thanks and thanks for doing this.

TenTen

[no dems]

I guess the Pa. rednecks were only in it for the pork? ______________________________________________________________ You got it Doctor.

[Hush44]

thanks for the ping..

~Kate

[kara2008]

Please add me to the ping list. Thank you!

[randita]

Added.