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U.S. forecaster sees increased 2010 hurricane threat
Reuters on Yahoo ^ | 4/7/10 | Pascal Fletcher

Posted on 04/07/2010 7:13:28 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

MIAMI (Reuters) – The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of them major, posing a heightened threat to the U.S. coastline, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicted on Wednesday.

In its second forecast in four months for the 2010 season, the leading storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 15 named tropical storms.

The team forecast a 69 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010, compared with a long-term average probability of 52 percent.

Major hurricanes pack powerful sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, including the Gulf of Mexico oil patch, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall was seen at 44 percent versus a long-term average of 30 percent, the Colorado State University team said.

"While patterns may change before the start of the hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season," Gray said in a statement.

An average Atlantic season has about 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes.

The Colorado State University team also predicted a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, where Haiti is vulnerable after a devastating January 12 earthquake that left more than a million people homeless.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: 2010; drpeterray; forecaster; hurricane; increased; threat
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1 posted on 04/07/2010 7:13:28 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
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To: NormsRevenge

Haven’t we heard predictions of higher than average activity just about every year? What, are they going to keep going with “above average” as an estimate until they’re right?


2 posted on 04/07/2010 7:15:51 PM PDT by ThunderSleeps (obama out now! I'll keep my money, my guns, and my freedom - you can keep the change.)
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To: ThunderSleeps
Every year is higher than average.
3 posted on 04/07/2010 7:17:06 PM PDT by arthurus ("If you don't believe in shooting abortionists, don't shoot an abortionist." -Ann C.)
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To: ThunderSleeps

guess so ... I have given up even listening to what they say anymore.


4 posted on 04/07/2010 7:17:18 PM PDT by Tarpon ( ...Rude crude socialist Obama depends on ignorance to force his will on people)
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To: NormsRevenge

Chicken Little speaks again...


5 posted on 04/07/2010 7:18:50 PM PDT by goodnesswins (The PLANTATION Party is at it again (the DEMS) ....trying to make slaves of everyone)
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To: NormsRevenge

Oh goody. I can do this too...

pgyanke predicts there will be tornados in the midwest, hurricanes in the southeast, earthquakes in California, rain in Seattle, and snow in Wisconsin during the course of this year.


6 posted on 04/07/2010 7:20:08 PM PDT by pgyanke (You have no "rights" that require an involuntary burden on another person. Period. - MrB)
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To: NormsRevenge

Oh no! Global warming!

Al Gore, call your office.


7 posted on 04/07/2010 7:22:01 PM PDT by fatnotlazy (Never forget!)
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To: NormsRevenge

It’s Bush’s fault. Women and children hurt the most.


8 posted on 04/07/2010 7:22:07 PM PDT by Parmy
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To: fatnotlazy

The author of these predictions is a fanatical opponent of people that claim that increased hurricane activity is a result of global warming.


9 posted on 04/07/2010 7:27:06 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: ThunderSleeps

Activity has indeed been higher than average the majority of years since 1995.


10 posted on 04/07/2010 7:27:40 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: NormsRevenge
"Colorado State University's Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach admit it's impossible to predict potential hurricane activity this early....hurricane experts have felt pressure to release early findings to an information-hungry public. "

"But a lot of that information is far too preliminary and inaccurate, said Bay News 9 chief meteorologist Mike Clay, and it's often overplayed by the media."

" Dr. Peter Ray, a meteorology professor at Florida State University who independently studies hurricanes, believes we are actually entering a less active season based on his studies about Atlantic warm pools."[more]

So There!

11 posted on 04/07/2010 7:30:52 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: NormsRevenge

The full report is here, for people that may be interested in learning something rather than just making snide comments:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2010/april2010/apr2010.pdf

See especially:

“B. WHY CO2 INCREASES ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ATLANTIC SST AND HURRICANE ACTIVITY INCREASES
29
Theoretical considerations do not support a close relationship between SSTs and hurricane intensity. In a global warming world, the atmosphere’s upper air temperatures will warm or cool in unison with longer-period SST changes. Vertical lapse rates will thus not be significantly altered in a somewhat warmer or somewhat cooler tropical oceanic environment. We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will significantly change if global or Atlantic Ocean temperatures were to rise by 1-2°C. Without corresponding changes in many other basic features, such as vertical wind shear or mid-level moisture, little or no additional TC activity should occur with SST increases.”


12 posted on 04/07/2010 7:31:16 PM PDT by Strategerist
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To: ThunderSleeps

A broken clock can be right at least twice a day. It’s no-lose forecast ... if they’re wrong it’s good news. If they’re right, they take credit and keep running the gullobal warming con game.


13 posted on 04/07/2010 7:31:53 PM PDT by edge919
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To: Strategerist

Aw geees , let the kids have their fun. :-)

Thanks!


14 posted on 04/07/2010 7:34:10 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Chuck DeVore - CA Senator. Believe.)
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To: NormsRevenge
Houston meteorologists have the easiest gig in the country during the summer:

"Tomorrow's forecast ...high near 100 with a 30% chance of mostly afternoon thundershowers"

15 posted on 04/07/2010 7:37:46 PM PDT by tx_eggman (Liberalism is only possible in that moment when a man chooses Barabas over Christ.)
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To: Strategerist
Warm pools are wide regions of sea surface temperatures warmer than 28.5 degrees Celsius, or about 83 degrees Fahrenheit. Hurricanes generally require water temperatures of at least 79 degrees. And the bigger the warm pool, the more active a hurricane season.

The lack of a warm pool, along with the increased wind shear because of El Niño, is why we had a quiet 2009, Ray said. He expects the lack of a warm pool to continue, cutting down on hurricanes for years to come.

Ray believes he's more willing to go out on a limb and say so because, unlike NOAA and Colorado State forecasters, he doesn't have the pressure to issue public safety warnings.

www.tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes

16 posted on 04/07/2010 7:38:51 PM PDT by fight_truth_decay
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To: tx_eggman

ya left out .. Humidity — Don’t ask. ;-]


17 posted on 04/07/2010 7:39:41 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Chuck DeVore - CA Senator. Believe.)
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To: NormsRevenge

They did so well at this last year.


18 posted on 04/07/2010 7:43:44 PM PDT by pfflier
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To: NormsRevenge

Punxatawney Phil makes equally good predictions. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has much more credibility.


19 posted on 04/07/2010 7:54:05 PM PDT by Rembrandt (.. AND the donkey you rode in on.)
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To: pgyanke
"pgyanke predicts there will be tornados in the midwest, hurricanes in the southeast, earthquakes in California, rain in Seattle, and snow in Wisconsin during the course of this year."

No drought this year?

20 posted on 04/07/2010 7:54:38 PM PDT by blam
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