Posted on 04/07/2010 7:13:28 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
MIAMI (Reuters) – The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of them major, posing a heightened threat to the U.S. coastline, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicted on Wednesday.
In its second forecast in four months for the 2010 season, the leading storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 15 named tropical storms.
The team forecast a 69 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010, compared with a long-term average probability of 52 percent.
Major hurricanes pack powerful sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).
For the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, including the Gulf of Mexico oil patch, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall was seen at 44 percent versus a long-term average of 30 percent, the Colorado State University team said.
"While patterns may change before the start of the hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season," Gray said in a statement.
An average Atlantic season has about 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes.
The Colorado State University team also predicted a 58 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, where Haiti is vulnerable after a devastating January 12 earthquake that left more than a million people homeless.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Haven’t we heard predictions of higher than average activity just about every year? What, are they going to keep going with “above average” as an estimate until they’re right?
guess so ... I have given up even listening to what they say anymore.
Chicken Little speaks again...
Oh goody. I can do this too...
pgyanke predicts there will be tornados in the midwest, hurricanes in the southeast, earthquakes in California, rain in Seattle, and snow in Wisconsin during the course of this year.
Oh no! Global warming!
Al Gore, call your office.
It’s Bush’s fault. Women and children hurt the most.
The author of these predictions is a fanatical opponent of people that claim that increased hurricane activity is a result of global warming.
Activity has indeed been higher than average the majority of years since 1995.
"But a lot of that information is far too preliminary and inaccurate, said Bay News 9 chief meteorologist Mike Clay, and it's often overplayed by the media."
" Dr. Peter Ray, a meteorology professor at Florida State University who independently studies hurricanes, believes we are actually entering a less active season based on his studies about Atlantic warm pools."[more]
So There!
The full report is here, for people that may be interested in learning something rather than just making snide comments:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2010/april2010/apr2010.pdf
See especially:
“B. WHY CO2 INCREASES ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ATLANTIC SST AND HURRICANE ACTIVITY INCREASES
29
Theoretical considerations do not support a close relationship between SSTs and hurricane intensity. In a global warming world, the atmosphere’s upper air temperatures will warm or cool in unison with longer-period SST changes. Vertical lapse rates will thus not be significantly altered in a somewhat warmer or somewhat cooler tropical oceanic environment. We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will significantly change if global or Atlantic Ocean temperatures were to rise by 1-2°C. Without corresponding changes in many other basic features, such as vertical wind shear or mid-level moisture, little or no additional TC activity should occur with SST increases.”
A broken clock can be right at least twice a day. It’s no-lose forecast ... if they’re wrong it’s good news. If they’re right, they take credit and keep running the gullobal warming con game.
Aw geees , let the kids have their fun. :-)
Thanks!
"Tomorrow's forecast ...high near 100 with a 30% chance of mostly afternoon thundershowers"
The lack of a warm pool, along with the increased wind shear because of El Niño, is why we had a quiet 2009, Ray said. He expects the lack of a warm pool to continue, cutting down on hurricanes for years to come.
Ray believes he's more willing to go out on a limb and say so because, unlike NOAA and Colorado State forecasters, he doesn't have the pressure to issue public safety warnings.
ya left out .. Humidity — Don’t ask. ;-]
They did so well at this last year.
Punxatawney Phil makes equally good predictions. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has much more credibility.
No drought this year?
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