Posted on 04/03/2010 8:45:05 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
There are dozens of additional vulnerable Democrats (or potentially vulnerable Democrats) that you haven’t listed. Off the top of my head, the FL-02 (Boyd), CO-07 (Perlmutter) and MA-06 (Tierney) will be far more competitive than the FL-12, FL-25 or several other GOP districts listed.
Until you have listed 100 Democrat-held House seats, you will not be close to having a “final” list.
remember, we are talking about grassroots conservatives here. Example, pre-election polls show:
Candidate A, total RINO 42%
Candidate B, fair to decent, 38%
nothing exciting
Candidate C, true Reaganite 12%
Who do freepers want to support in above primary? In CT, grassroots Reaganites choose candidate C every time. Marginalists are as marginalists do.
I haven’t examined the candidates for the open seat in Kansas but I’m sure the RINO wing is running someone there.
Thanks for the ping; post. Look for Rocky in MI 9th. I’ve seen/heard him at a couple of events this year (White Lake & Waterford township). OUTSTANDING candidate.
We may have missed one or two or else been deceived by what we saw, but we were pretty careful to screen for sanctity of life (pro-life, anti-fed. $ for stem cell) and 2nd amendment stance as well as the obvious fiscally conservative stances.
What we do not know is how these candidates are polling in their districts. How would you get that information? Major pollsters don't usually spring for primary elections, unless they are very important, like the NY special election (Scozzofazza). Decently financed campaigns may do their own internal polling and also local new outlets, but there aren't many of these in backwater locales.
Speaking for myself, providing as much information as possible to assist local folks in learning about candidates is the first step. This list gives them links at the touch of a button to start their research.
I agree that it would be nice to have much more information about each candidate listed, but that's out of the purview of what IP and I are working on and limited to on a two page Excel document, as you wrote. I think I speak for IP when I write that our goal is to provide a base from which exploration can be easily done and keep that base as up to date as is possible.
This list will soon have it's own home with a web address, so that when it's visited, the most up to date version will always be viewable.
Yours is the first input we got on MI 9. We researched the candidates and picked Rocky as our first choice. Glad to see it confirmed.
Here is info I gleaned about KS 3:
KS 3 (I learned from reading that the GOP in this district is split-half conservative, half RINO and are spiteful enough to stay home in the general if their candidate loses the primary. Hopefully, they learned a valuable lesson in 2008 and will band together).
I think there are 3 good candidates, all with legislative experience: Lightner, Jordan and Yoder. Only Lightner goes on the record as saying she is pro-life. Can’t find info either way with the other two. Redstate.com puts them in this order-Lightner, Jordan, Yoder. I agree.
Mike Soderal (R). Most experienced. In my opinion an empty suit. He will be conservative until it starts to hurt. Was invisible when he served in this post once before.
Todd Young (R). No opinion, but rumor is he is a true RINO.
Travis Hankins (R). True conservative, social, constitutional, fiscal, everything. Been an active campaigner for at least two years now. Really working the district. But he is young, and worse he really looks it.
Wow!! What a list...Thanks for all the hard work that went into this.
Thanks a lot for the input. Are there other top contenders for this seat that we don’t have listed?
Thanks a lot for the input. Are there other top contenders for this seat that we don’t have listed?
RAT fight! This has implications for the Special Election in HI and help Djou.
DCCC Weighs Picking Sides in Hawaii Special
By Shira Toeplitz, CQ-Roll Call
House Democrats are considering backing former Rep. Ed Case in Hawaii’s competitive winner-take-all special election next month, a move that would run counter to the endorsements of the Aloha State’s two Senators.
Several sources with knowledge of the situation said that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is inclined to support Case over state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who has the support of Hawaii Democratic Sens. Daniel K. Inouye and Daniel K. Akaka , organized labor and EMILY’s List.
More here:
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000003636599&topic=Feature
Ping
Thanks for this Master List.
Most of these Dems will win re-election (yes the people are that stupid).
Even in the face of the storm, the 13th was one of only maybe 5 districts and certainly the ONLY district below Albany that voted for McCain.
The district IS heavily union, BUT BUT BUT it's cops and fireman and sanitation unionized. THOSE union people DON'T vote Democrat and won't vote for McMahon no who tries to tell them they should. When McMahon had his one and only Townhall on healthcare the room was about 20 to 1
against and most of the small number of union goons where obviously NOT from Staten Island. The message we sent was don't go there Mike and he didn't, not because he's not a good liberal Democrat but because he IS MORE AFRAID of us than he is AFRAID of Pelosi. McMahon's vote alone should have alerted the “experts” something was up in NY 13.
Staten Island sent two buses to the 9-12 rally and two more to a 48 hour notice Bachmann event in Washington. I was at both and VERY few people were at both.
The registrations are about even which is very significant for NYC. Which brings me to the next point. The enthusiasm level of Republicans is 83/14 which is about what it is in Staten Island. The 1/3 South Shore will go 80 / 20 for Grimm who WILL be the GOP nominee. Forget Allegretti he's 34 has no money and his family is mob connected.If the “experts” took two seconds to check they would KNOW thew kid is from Bayside Heating Oil which is bent nose all the way. By contrast Mike Grimm is a retired HERO FBI agent ( STATEN ISAND LOVES COPS) and McMahons brother is dealing with mob connections with a mob owned bus company history.
McMahon is already a dead man walking because he voted for Cap and Trade and to raise the debt ceiling. On Staten Island those two votes will kill him.
The Boro President has already sold his Conservative Party endorsement to McMahon for his keeping the Dems from running a real candidate against him last year. Grimm can win an “Opportunity to ballot” challenge and take the line away from McMahon, if he decides to, but by then it will be very clear that SI Conservatives won't vote for McMahon as they have been used by Boro President McMahon like this before.
Grimm easily wins GOP primary and wins general 58/42. Write it down. PLEASE MOVE MCMAHON TO LIKELY GOP PICK UP.
Thanks for the heads up about NY 13. We hadn’t gotten any feedback yet on that district.
Keep me or interceptpoint posted, if you hear any more going on. After the primary, it will be interesting to hear how the polling goes for that district.
We'll take a look at that. Right now we are carrying a Tier 2 list of races that are the districts that look like a long shot for an R pickup right now but could be moving up to our Master List of contested seats. We'll add NY-13 to our Tier 2 list for now and have a look at what our 5 "experts" think of the race. I'm betting that most will say SAFE-D. But if you are right then I would expect that to change as we approach the NY Primary.
I would encourage you to post anything you come across that will help make your case. If NY-13 is really in play it will make it on to our list.
Thank you very much for posting this ;)
bookmark
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