You are right that these are Republican seats and they are on our Vulnerable Democrats list. I think we have to do that for cases where the seat is in play. If it's a toss-up district we want it on the list even if it's an Open R Seat. When I come up for air I'm going to put some sort of flag on the list to indicate which seats are Open R so it will be clear that we are protecting a nominally Republican seat.
What we don't want on the list are SAFE seats on either side. So if you are right about the vacated Putnam seat then it will fall off the list. But FL-12 is rated by our "experts" as Leans R, Likely R, Mod R and Likely R. That's from Sabato, CQPolitics, ElectionProjection.com and the Cook Political Report. None of those guys are rating FL-12 as SAFE R. So that's why it's on the list.
I'm going to issue the updated list in a new thread later this morning with clickable links in pdf format and you will see that we have several candidates for removal from the list. And I think there are a few that will be in play that we haven't spotted yet. But very few. Separating the strong and conservative candidates from among the many running in the primaries remains our biggest problem. That's where we need all the help we can get. You will see most of your recommendations incorporated on that list.
If you want to add this as suggested by impy:
Illinois 17 Phil Hare
*Bobby Schilling, http://www.bobby2010.com/
The democrats have a serious shot at the following GOP seats in this order
1)LA-02 (Joe Cao in New Orleans) heavily rat seat very likely rat gain
2)Delaware At Large (Open), definitely lean rat
3)IL-10 (open) Tossup
If you list IL 10 you need to list LA-02 and DE-AL as well.
The second tier would include
PA-15 Charlie Dent who faces a strong opponent
Nebraska 1 Lee Terry who faces a strong opponent
CA-03 Dan Lungren possible ethics issues? I forget
WA-02 Dave Reichart he’s never won big
Jim Gerlach’s PA 6 was open and a tossup before he exited the Gubernatorial race and got back in the house race. I expect him to win easily.
Michelle Bachman will always be targeted but if she didn’t lose in 06 or 08 she won’t lose now.
All those are more likely to fall than Putnam’s seat and (CQ has them “lean Republican”) if you really wanna list all of those ‘potentially’ vulnerable GOP seats that aren’t a 100% lock. You’ll need an even bigger table. ;)
“Likely” btw is one step from safe. They list it there cause it’s open and McCain only won it by a hair due to big rat turnout in Florida. CQ politics lists 12! other GOP seats besides Florida 12 in that category.
If the election were today I’d be surprised if the rats won a GOP seat besides the 3 I listed.
The 4th most vulnerable seat is Dent’s swing PA-15 in my estimation. Because he faces a strong rat in Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan.