The democrats have a serious shot at the following GOP seats in this order
1)LA-02 (Joe Cao in New Orleans) heavily rat seat very likely rat gain
2)Delaware At Large (Open), definitely lean rat
3)IL-10 (open) Tossup
If you list IL 10 you need to list LA-02 and DE-AL as well.
The second tier would include
PA-15 Charlie Dent who faces a strong opponent
Nebraska 1 Lee Terry who faces a strong opponent
CA-03 Dan Lungren possible ethics issues? I forget
WA-02 Dave Reichart he’s never won big
Jim Gerlach’s PA 6 was open and a tossup before he exited the Gubernatorial race and got back in the house race. I expect him to win easily.
Michelle Bachman will always be targeted but if she didn’t lose in 06 or 08 she won’t lose now.
All those are more likely to fall than Putnam’s seat and (CQ has them “lean Republican”) if you really wanna list all of those ‘potentially’ vulnerable GOP seats that aren’t a 100% lock. You’ll need an even bigger table. ;)
“Likely” btw is one step from safe. They list it there cause it’s open and McCain only won it by a hair due to big rat turnout in Florida. CQ politics lists 12! other GOP seats besides Florida 12 in that category.
If the election were today I’d be surprised if the rats won a GOP seat besides the 3 I listed.
The 4th most vulnerable seat is Dent’s swing PA-15 in my estimation. Because he faces a strong rat in Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan.
Thanks for your valuable inputs impy. We are going to have to deal at some point with the issue of vulnerable Republican seats that can and should be saved. They will be on our list eventually. Right now I want to get the Vulnerable Dems list set the best we can. Stay tuned. This list has a way to go before we can rest.