Re: Pa 17
I don’t know much about Argall. He was elected to the state Senate last year. Prior to that he was in the state house since 1984.
His voting record looks conservative to me. Obviously he’s a career pol. But voters in the area are familiar with him he has the best chance to beat the rat Holden.
You can see a list of all the other candidates here
http://www.politics1.com/pa.htm
if they’re missing someone you can email them
Re: Putnam
You list Florida 12 on you chart. That’s a current Republican seat being vacated by Republican Adam Putnam. So I don’t know why it’s on the chart, this is for democrat seats right? Also it’s safe. You can round the rats chances of winning it this year down to zero.
Mark Kirk’s (R) Ilinois 10th is also a current Republican (RINO) seat.
RE: California 23. I didn’t say that one was competitive I don’t believe it is or will be this cycle. Someone asked how safe it was for the rats. What I meant to say is that it’s possible to win being about 40% Republican. The circumstances would need to be right. It doesn’t belong on the chart.
Neither in my estimation does Florida 20 (Wasserman) which is less Republican that the Cali 23rd. Unless there’s some polling there I’m not aware of.
Re: Runyon
My bad I found his site
He’s the only Republican in that race that has gotten national attention. It’s a swing seat with a freshman rat. There are a couple other Republicans running.
http://www.politics1.com/nj.htm
You are right that these are Republican seats and they are on our Vulnerable Democrats list. I think we have to do that for cases where the seat is in play. If it's a toss-up district we want it on the list even if it's an Open R Seat. When I come up for air I'm going to put some sort of flag on the list to indicate which seats are Open R so it will be clear that we are protecting a nominally Republican seat.
What we don't want on the list are SAFE seats on either side. So if you are right about the vacated Putnam seat then it will fall off the list. But FL-12 is rated by our "experts" as Leans R, Likely R, Mod R and Likely R. That's from Sabato, CQPolitics, ElectionProjection.com and the Cook Political Report. None of those guys are rating FL-12 as SAFE R. So that's why it's on the list.
I'm going to issue the updated list in a new thread later this morning with clickable links in pdf format and you will see that we have several candidates for removal from the list. And I think there are a few that will be in play that we haven't spotted yet. But very few. Separating the strong and conservative candidates from among the many running in the primaries remains our biggest problem. That's where we need all the help we can get. You will see most of your recommendations incorporated on that list.