If I was a betting man, I would definitely take this bet because I still don't think this thing is going to pass.
If I was a betting man, I would definitely take this bet because I still don't think this thing is going to pass.
does intrade trade with real dollars?
Please note that this says something nebulous called “obamacare” will pass by June 30th. This 80% figure IS NOT the probability of something passing this weekend, or in fact anything like what is on the table passing. I would put that more at about 50% or maybe a little less right now.
But even if obama loses this weekend, he will water something down and probably get something or other passed by June 30. I would agree with this 80% figure given the actual definition of the event being so nebulous.