Posted on 03/19/2010 11:41:24 AM PDT by grayhog
Intrade has the bill passing at 81%, having spiked up over the past 2 days.
Watch the HMO stocks as well. If this passes, they should rally pretty hard, which is ironic because Obama uses them as his villain. UNH, WLP, AET are up about 2% in a down market, which also points to more likely than not this debacle passing. Healthcare stocks up (another $2.5 trillion to spend on healthcare!) and everything else down is a realistic result of this thing passing.
The premise of the question is a fallacy. Any federal version of health care is unconstitutional since Article 1 Section 8 does not specifically grant Congress the power to regulate health care. An unconstitutional act of Congress can never be law! The people are not bound to comply with an unconstitutional act of Congress!
I like them to re-run those numbers this Saturday around say 1:00 to 2:00pm.
Bet they won't be at 81%!
I think InTrade is being manipulated by people who want to make it look like it will pass. Psy-ops.
Evil Speculators!................
Everybody stay cool even if it passes Sunday.
The battle isn’t over by a long shot.
I take a little solace in the fact that this particular contract is rather thinly traded, and therefore easy to manipulate. There were some wierd price patterns over the last few nights, which could be the result of manipulation, though they could have resulted from some combination of illiquidty and idiots trading.
So maybe, just maybe the high price might reflect some rich Dem manipulating the market to make passage of Obamacare seem "inevitable." Of course, I can't prove this, but it is a remote possibility.
Also, trading on intrade is technically illegal for US citizens, so maybe, just maybe (I hope), this means that the people with the best information (i.e. Congressional staffers) aren't participating. That would mean the price reflects the best guess about the odds of passage by ordinary, uninformed people, and that might not be accurate.
I pray one of the above alternative explanations for the high price is true.
Can you keep us updated on changes? Thanks! :)
Something like 222-203 maybe?
Could be. It's not the first time it's happened on intrade, and there were some very weird price/volume patters during the late night trading hours earlier this week. This isn't strong evidence of manipulation by an means, but it's something.
You can get real time updates for yourself if you just go to intrade.com.
Thanks. I thought I would have to forage around on the site to find it ... but it’s on the frist page.
Thanks!
Intrade predicted 90% against George Bush getting a second term.
It has a lefty slant - free market or not, the prediction markets do have flaws on partisan issues.
Sports, not so much.
Not as of the previous day's close. Markets were solidly pro-Bush at the time.
They turned against Bush during the day, when the faulty exit polls in the midwest came out favoring Kerry, big.
Exit polls are usually pretty accurate, so I don't think you can attribute the markets taking them seriously to some sort of lefty slant.
Day of election as the voting was going, it swung very sharply against Bush. I know because I was trading.
Trading is so thin on Intrade that it’s difficult if not impossible to determine accuracy.
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