WHIP COUNT: House Democrats' positions on the healthcare reform bill (Updated 5:31PMEST)

THE HILL ^ | 3-18-10 | The Hill staff

[tcrlaf]

RECENT UPDATES: Reps. Betsy Markey, Travis Childers, Luis Gutierrez, Bart Gordon, Joe Baca, Raul Grijalva, Harry Mitchell, Mark Schauer, Heath Shuler, Stephen Lynch, Betty Sutton, Bob Etheridge, Michael Arcuri, Baron Hill, and Bart Stupak

House Democrats not on this list are expected to vote yes. However, some members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus who are not mentioned below have threatened to vote no unless the Senate's immigration-related provisions are changed.

All House Republicans are expected to vote no.

If every member votes and all GOP lawmakers vote no, the maximum number of Democratic defections to pass a bill is 37, which would result in a 216-215 tally.

* -- Voted for Stupak amendment in November (Y) -- Voted yes in November (N) -- Voted no in November

Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No (36)

John Adler (N.J.) (N) Citing cost containment, Adler told the Courier-Post that he will vote against Senate measure

Michael Arcuri (N.Y.) (Y) National Journal reports he is telling leadership he will vote against the bill. John Barrow (Ga.) (N) Voted no last year in committee and on floor. Likely no

Marion Berry (Ark.) * (Y) Has been critical of the president since announcing his retirement. Strong backer of Stupak language. Voted yes in Budget Committee markup on March 15

Dan Boren (Okla.) * (N) Won't be changing his mind — firm no

Rick Boucher (Va.) (N) GOP target who has told local press outlets in Virginia he has major problems with Medicare cuts and "unsavory dealmaking" that benefited Nebraska, Louisiana and Florida. Leaning no

Bobby Bright (Ala.) * (N) Voted against House health bill, stimulus and climate change. Firm no

Allen Boyd (Fla.) (N) Facing primary challenge. Voted no on education reform bill expected to move with healthcare reform as part of reconciliation. Voted no on March 15 during Budget Committee markup

Chris Carney (Pa.) * (Y) Carney told the Scranton Times-Shamrock, "As I said publicly, I can't vote for a bill that will publicly fund abortion."

Ben Chandler (Ky.) * (N) His office told The Hill on March 15: “Congressman Chandler’s position on the bill remains the same. He expects to vote against the legislation.”

Travis Childers (Miss.) * (N) Told the Daily Journal he will vote no, citing lack of strong language on abortion funding. From Childers statement: "While I cannot vote for current House legislation, I remain committed to effective, fiscally responsible health care reform that makes sense for North Mississippi."

Jerry Costello (Ill.) * (Y) One of his senior aides, David Gillies, told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that Costelllo will vote no on the Senate bill. Most of the calls, e-mails and letters he has received have advised a no vote. His office did say he was "undecided" on the reconciliation legislation if it comes up for a vote.

Artur Davis (Ala.) * (N) Running for governor, but will make sure to return to D.C. to vote no

Lincoln Davis (Tenn.) * (N) Voted no first time, and most expect him to vote no again. He has not commented publicly.

Joe Donnelly (Ind.) * (Y) Among the Stupak dozen — will vote no unless abortion language in Senate bill is changed, according to The Rochester Sentinel

Steve Driehaus (Ohio) * (Y) In toss-up race in November who is ardent backer of Stupak language. Now sounds like a very firm no. Told the Cincinnati Enquirer, "They are going to have to do it without me and without the other pro-life Democrats." His spokesman told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer: "Unless changes are made to the abortion language in the Senate version, Rep. Driehaus will be voting no."

Chet Edwards (Texas) (N) Perennial GOP target. Edwards spokesman told CNN he will vote no. Votes no at March 15 Budget Committee markup

Larry Kissell (N.C.) (N) GOP target, but reelection chances on the rise. Firm no

Frank Kratovil (Md.) (N) Voted for climate change; says he will vote no

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.) (N) Congresswoman told the Rapid City Journal she's a no, noting she is not a fan of reconciliation. She also voted no on education reform bill expected to move in reconciliation with healthcare reform

Tim Holden (Pa.) * (N) Voted against healthcare and climate change in 2009. Told The Republican Herald that he is a no, citing abortion and "significant" cuts to Medicare and Medicaid

Daniel Lipinski (Ill.) * (Y) Will not vote for abortion language in Senate bill, but has other concerns as well. Democratic leaders cannot count on Lipinski

Stephen Lynch (Mass.) * (Y) Says he will vote no. Proponent of Stupak language. Has major problems with "deem and pass" strategy. Told Politico, "I don’t buy the argument that he’s done if this doesn’t pass. He’s got three more years. He can recover.”

Jim Marshall (Ga.) * (N) Perennial GOP target, but favored to win reelection. Told The Hill he's a no

Jim Matheson (Utah) * (N) President Obama this year tapped brother for post, but Matheson still a likely no

Mike McIntyre (N.C.) * (N) Seven-term lawmaker rejected House health bill and climate change. Spokesman tells The Hill McIntyre is a no. Expected to win reelection easily even though Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won district

Mike McMahon (N.Y.) (N) Suggested last month he was a no to the Staten Island Advance. McMahon told The Hill on March 12 he is leaning no. Voted no on education reform bill that is expected to move with healthcare reform in reconciliation

Charlie Melancon (La.) * (N) Senate hopeful voted no in November and no in committee. Likely no

Walt Minnick (Idaho) (N) One of the House's most conservative members. Firm no

Collin Peterson (Minn.) * (N) Ag chairman not shy in bucking leadership. Firm no

Mike Ross (Ark.) * (N) Voted for bill in committee, but not since. Firm no

Heath Shuler (N.C.) * (N) CNN reporting Shuler is a no. Doesn't hold his tongue when he opposes Democratic leaders. Critic of reconciliation. Gannett New Services reports Shuler is leaving himself wiggle room. Shuler said: "Until I know the details of the final bill and the process, I am reluctant to draw a line in the sand."

Ike Skelton (Mo.) * (N) GOP targeting his seat. Armed Services Committee chairman is a firm no

Bart Stupak (Mich.) * (Y) Told The Hill in March 17 interview his life has been "living hell" in recent weeks. Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) predicted Stupak will vote yes, but Stupak says he will absolutely vote no unless the bill language on abortion is changed.

Gene Taylor (Miss.) * (N) Has been a firm no all Congress. Constituents last summer urged him to get others to vote no

Harry Teague (N.M.) * (N) Told The Hill that he will review bill to see if final bill brings costs down. If "we are in the same place — a no"

Undecided (48)

Jason Altmire (Pa.) * (N) Sounding more like a no than he was last week. On March 16, Altmire told Fox Business Network that he has major problem with Democrats' apparent "deem and pass" strategy, calling it "wrong."

Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told McClatchy Newspaperrs he is targeting Altmire, who many view as key to passage. Voted no in committee and on floor, but bottom line is his yes vote is gettable

Brian Baird (Wash.) (N) Retiring member who bucked party on Iraq war surge. Another target of Clyburn

Melissa Bean (Ill.) (Y) Conservative Democrat well-positioned for midterm election

Shelley Berkley (Nev.) (Y) Told Politico she does not like the Senate bill Sanford Bishop Jr. (Ga.) * (Y) Favors Stupak provision

Tim Bishop (N.Y.) (Y) Must-have vote for leadership. Bishop's office told CNN that the New York lawmaker wants major changes to Senate bill. Voted yes in March 15 Budget Committee markup

John Boccieri (Ohio) * (N) In a bad sign for the White House, Boccieri did not appear with President Barack Obama at his March 15 speech in Ohio. Boccieri, a GOP target, told Foxnews.com, "I'm not afraid to cast a tough vote..." Clyburn has publicly said he is leaning on Boccieri, whose vote could go a long way in determining whether healthcare reform will pass

Michael Capuano (Y) Wanted to be a senator, but doesn't trust the Senate. TPM reported that Capuano is leaning no. In an e-mail to supporters, Capuano said he has many problems with Senate measure

Dennis Cardoza (Calif.) * (Y) Secured language for district before last year's vote

Jim Cooper (Tenn.) * (Y) Has had up-and-down relationship with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)

Jim Costa (Calif.) * (Y) Secured project for his district before November vote

Henry Cuellar (Texas) * (Y) Cuellar backs Stupak language but undecided. Cuellar's vote has been one of rampant speculation, but the office told The Daily Caller he is undecided. Under pressure from Speaker and the president, Cuellar backed the climate change bill and House healthcare measure last year.

Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target. Her yes vote could be key to passage. Strong backer of Stupak language

Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) * (Y) Senate hopeful who is big supporter of Stupak language

Bob Etheridge (N.C.) * (Y) Told McClatchy he's undecided. Said, "When North Carolina families are hurting, doing nothing really isn't an option for me." Voted yes in Budget Committee markup on March 15

Bill Foster (Ill.) (Y) GOP target

Marcia Fudge (Ohio) (Y) Fudge is undecided, according to wkyc.com. Obama lobbying for her vote, giving her a ride on Air Force One on March 15

John Hall (N.Y.) (Y) Democratic leaders may lose other Dems from N.Y., but need to keep Hall on board

Debbie Halvorson (Ill.) (Y) Politically vulnerable, but favored to win her reelection race

Baron Hill (Ind.) * (Y) Issued statement on March 16 touting benefits of bill, but Courier-Journal reports he is still undecided

Paul Kanjorski (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target. Also voted with education reform bill that will move with healthcare reform in reconciliation

Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) * (Y) Voted with leadership first time around, but doesn't toe the party line. Wants Stupak language but that's not a deal breaker. Voted yes during Budget Committee markup. Likely to move to lean yes category soon

Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio) (Y) In toss-up race this November

Ron Kind (Wis.) (Y) Represents competitive district. Voted against bill in committee

Ron Klein (Fla.) (Y) GOP target

Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.) (N) President Obama urges her to vote yes in the Oval Office, according to March 16 AP report

Jerry McNerney (Calif.) (Y) Waiting for final language. There are false reports of him being a firm no

Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) (Y) GOP target. His spokesperson told The Hill: "The Congressman had some concerns with the Senate bill and will look over Reconciliation to see how it impacts the Senate bill."

Alan Mollohan (W.Va.) * (Y) In November, seat was considered safe. Now, he's in a tight race

Chris Murphy (Conn.) (Y) GOP target

Scott Murphy (N.Y.) (N) President Obama urges Murphy to vote yes in Oval Office meeting, according to March 16 AP report. Reelection race looks good, for now. Told local media he might vote yes

Richard Neal (Mass.) * (Y) Better vote yes if he wants to take Ways and Means gavel; fan of Stupak language

Glenn Nye (Va.) (N) In toss-up race

Solomon Ortiz (Texas) * (Y) Was a late yes last time around

Bill Owens (N.Y.) (Y) One of first votes in Congress was yes on House health bill; media reports have him as undecided

Tom Perriello (Va.) * (Y) Took a step toward a yes by endorsing Senate abortion language on March 16. Still has not said how he will vote. In toss-up race this fall; Pelosi had long talk with the Virginia Democrat on March 10 on the House floor

Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) * (Y) Voted against bill in committee, and for it on the House floor

Nick Rahall (W.Va.) * (Y) Another panel chairman on the fence

Ciro Rodriguez (Texas) * (Y) Considered by Cook Political Report to "likely" retain seat

John Salazar (Colo.) * (Y) GOP target

Loretta Sanchez (Calif.) (Y) Was a late yes in November

Kurt Schrader (Ore.) (Y) Budget Committee member didn't vote during March 15 markup. In competitive reelection race.

Zack Space (Ohio) * (Y) Voted yes in committee and yes on the floor last year

Adam Smith (Wash.) (Y) Was a late yes in November John Tanner (Tenn.) * (N) House deputy whip not running for reelection, but he still will need to be convinced to get to yes. Voted no in committee and on floor

Dina Titus (Nev.) (Y) Her office told The Hill the congresswoman is undecided. Voted no in committee and yes on the floor last year

Paul Tonko (N.Y.) (Y) Waiting for Congressional Budget Office numbers

David Wu (Ore.) (Y) Was undecided for three hours during 2003 Medicare drug vote, then voted with the GOP

[tcrlaf]

If this is anywhere near accurate, only a few more NO VOTES kills this monstrosity.

If bribery is now the DC name of the game, Boenher better start making some promises.

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

why can’t we just BUY these maroons!!!

[rdl6989]

Bump to that.

[tcrlaf]

List of House Democrats targeted today by the AFL-CIO for defeat:
Notice how many of these are on the Undecideds/No list...

From KOS:
The AFL-CIO source sends over the list of House Dems who are being targeted:

Dennis Cardoza,
Jim Costa,
Daniel Lipinski,
Stephen Lynch,
Michael Michaud,
James Oberstar,
Steve Dreihaus,
Charlie Wilson
Marcy Kaptur,
John Boccieri,
Zack Space,
Tom Perriello,
Jason Altmire,
Christopher Carney,
Paul Kanjorski,
Tim Holden,
Jerry Costello,
Alan Mollohan,
Nick Rahall,
Kathy Dahlkepmer.

The source says that the threat of a primary or third-party challenge will be implicit, particularly since the AFL-CIO is already supporting Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter’s primary challenge to Blanche Lincoln.

[sam_paine]

Boenher better start making some promises.

Candy? Piggyback rides?

What do you want him to offer?

Conservatives sat home and stripped him of any power to "play the game" aka WIN in 2006.

[cripplecreek]

Mark Schauer was never going to vote no. He’s totally owned by the SEIU and knows he can’t win in this district again.

[Retired Greyhound]

So what’s the total count?

[Red Steel]

Michael Arcuri (N.Y.) (Y) National Journal reports he is telling leadership he will vote against the bill.

Yup, he's a no.

U.S. Rep. Michael Arcuri decides he's a firm 'NO' vote on health care reform bill(D-Utica)

[bigbob]

These lists make my head hurt. Anyone who has a Rep with a Y by his name better be on the phone, email, FedEx, you-name-it to them. Pressure from their constituents is the only thing that will possibly overcome pressure from Pelosi and her minions and the White House.

[bushpilot1]

Gene Taylor, MS, will be hung on Hwy 90 if he votes yes and he knows it.

[alancarp]

"Bob Etheridge (N.C.) * (Y) Told McClatchy he's undecided. Said, "When North Carolina families are hurting, doing nothing really isn't an option for me." Voted yes in Budget Committee markup on March 15 "

The mentality of some of these people is unbelievable. HEY, BOB: Your bill does nothing for FOUR YEARS. If you want true reform, the Republicans' option does it almost immediately!!

[SnakeDoctor]

So we need 38 Democrat “no” votes ... and we have 36 firm “no” already — with 48 undecided? We only need 2 out of 48 to kill the thing?

Ryan indicated on Rush that he thinks Democrats are at least 10 votes short.

Things may be going our way.

SnakeDoc

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

I forget now, one of the Freepers suggested we should put these seats on EBAY!

[caww]

These thugs saying they are undecided is a bunch of BS...they’re all just holding out for the highest price...they are whores!

[caww]

These thugs saying they are undecided is a bunch of BS...they’re all just holding out for the highest price...the are whores!

[fortheDeclaration]

LOL!

[GVnana]

Bump.

[BARLF]

Conservatives sat home and stripped him of any power to "play the game" aka WIN in 2006

Bump

[jessduntno]

“I forget now, one of the Freepers suggested we should put these seats on EBAY!”

We could offer an exchange, but it would take a big pile o shite to exchange for one o those boyos in the Congress...

[Recovering Ex-hippie]

i would donate to a “Buy a congreesman” Fund today!