Skip to comments.HC odds of passing are dropping in Intrade
Posted on 03/16/2010 11:15:25 PM PDT by arista
Chance is down to 53% from 75% earlier today. The CBO was supposed to come out with their estimates right around now. Could this indicate rumors that the CBO numbers don't look good?
47% now... :)
How reliable is Intrade? What’s their track record?
We all know the CBO estimates are a scam, but that doesn't matter. What matters is that several of the wavering Dems apparently care about these numbers.
down to 35% !!!
maybe word is leaking on Kucinich and others coming out WED as NO’s ??? Some rumor is getting around that indicates failure.
There’s no mechanism to stop Rats from pumping this market to try to gin up momentum for Bummercare, is there? What is the capitalization on the question?
I saw that 35% drop too. Something is up.
The insiders clearly no something we don’t.
down down down way down
How dependable are Intrade’s numbers?
Not one to know much about trading...recent conversation with my brother who trades was interesting though...mentioned the sensitivity of the markets and how skittish they are..... However this drop surely is a heads up.
CBO could be a real problem. Any Reconciliation Bill has to reduce costs to be in order. Most of the Dims changes increase costs so this could be a huge problem for Nancy right now.
Could just be some yahoo throwing their money away. The thing is, you have to put your money where your mouth is to move the numbers, and since most people don't like to throw their money away, usually when there is a big price change it is for a reason. However in this case, it looks like the volume is not too strong, so only time will tell.
How much is psy-ops by folks with campaign money... just curious? The Rats could bid it up and the GOP could as easily bid it down.
Bit it up and *offer* it down.
And it takes money to do that, the same as if you try to move Intel stock or oil or any other market. Of course, Intrade contracts are going to be a lot less liquid.
Apparently in 2004 someone market ordered Bush presidential contracts all the way to zero to try to manipulate the market. The article I read was saying this would’ve taken hundreds of thousands of dollars to do.
Naturally it rebounded, and apparently came all the way back to where it was. So basically somebody just gave everyone else incredibly cheap buys—the same as happens when someone tries to artificially move any other market.
1) it’s back up up up up up
2) it’s against the rules to stalk from thread to thread, you do it again and I ping the mods, pinkneck
3) Your argument is incredibly lame. If the odds at Intrade are a reliable indication, then they are reliable when they’re saying good things about conservatism’s chances or bad things. But you seem to only give it credence when it’s saying something good about what you like, and call Freepers a troll if they give credence to its results on the downside as well. Lame. Triple lame, because now the whole basis of your namecalling has been wiped out by you giving credence to the result. That not only makes you lame-o, but it makes you a real jerk.
Will ‘Obamacare’ health care reform become law in the United States?
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
‘Obamacare’ health care reform (see contract rules) to become law before midnight ET 30 Jun 2010 M Trade 66.0 67.5 65.5 12622 +30
shucks, I missed my chance to cash in
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.