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HC odds of passing are dropping in Intrade
Intrade ^ | 3/16/2010 | me

Posted on 03/16/2010 11:15:25 PM PDT by arista

Chance is down to 53% from 75% earlier today. The CBO was supposed to come out with their estimates right around now. Could this indicate rumors that the CBO numbers don't look good?


TOPICS: Government
KEYWORDS: bill; healthcare; intrade; obama
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1 posted on 03/16/2010 11:15:26 PM PDT by arista
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To: arista

47% now... :)


2 posted on 03/16/2010 11:17:44 PM PDT by arista
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To: arista
Whether CBO “look” good or bad really shouldn't matter. It is a TRICK in any event - 10 years of revenue and only 6 years of goodies is a stacked deck for the RATS.
3 posted on 03/16/2010 11:20:07 PM PDT by Cheerio (Barack Hussein 0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: arista

How reliable is Intrade? What’s their track record?


4 posted on 03/16/2010 11:21:59 PM PDT by BAW (I'm right.)
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To: Cheerio
Whether CBO “look” good or bad really shouldn't matter. It is a TRICK in any event - 10 years of revenue and only 6 years of goodies is a stacked deck for the RATS.

We all know the CBO estimates are a scam, but that doesn't matter. What matters is that several of the wavering Dems apparently care about these numbers.

5 posted on 03/16/2010 11:22:17 PM PDT by arista
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To: arista

6 posted on 03/16/2010 11:27:31 PM PDT by Bobalu (In Missouri now...back among my own people :-)
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To: BAW

down to 35% !!!

maybe word is leaking on Kucinich and others coming out WED as NO’s ??? Some rumor is getting around that indicates failure.


7 posted on 03/16/2010 11:30:35 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: arista

There’s no mechanism to stop Rats from pumping this market to try to gin up momentum for Bummercare, is there? What is the capitalization on the question?


8 posted on 03/16/2010 11:32:23 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: campaignPete R-CT

I saw that 35% drop too. Something is up.


9 posted on 03/16/2010 11:33:59 PM PDT by cornfedcowboy (Trust in God, but empty the clip.)
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To: arista

Wow! 35%.

The insiders clearly no something we don’t.


10 posted on 03/16/2010 11:37:00 PM PDT by Eterna1Soldier
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To: Kevmo

down down down way down


11 posted on 03/16/2010 11:37:01 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: arista

How dependable are Intrade’s numbers?


12 posted on 03/16/2010 11:38:29 PM PDT by no dems (Palin / Rubio 2012)
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To: Eterna1Soldier

Not one to know much about trading...recent conversation with my brother who trades was interesting though...mentioned the sensitivity of the markets and how skittish they are..... However this drop surely is a heads up.


13 posted on 03/16/2010 11:41:16 PM PDT by caww
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To: arista

CBO could be a real problem. Any Reconciliation Bill has to reduce costs to be in order. Most of the Dims changes increase costs so this could be a huge problem for Nancy right now.


14 posted on 03/16/2010 11:42:20 PM PDT by DJtex
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To: no dems
How dependable are Intrade’s numbers?

Could just be some yahoo throwing their money away. The thing is, you have to put your money where your mouth is to move the numbers, and since most people don't like to throw their money away, usually when there is a big price change it is for a reason. However in this case, it looks like the volume is not too strong, so only time will tell.

15 posted on 03/16/2010 11:42:20 PM PDT by arista
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To: Eterna1Soldier

*know


16 posted on 03/16/2010 11:48:56 PM PDT by Eterna1Soldier
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To: arista

How much is psy-ops by folks with campaign money... just curious? The Rats could bid it up and the GOP could as easily bid it down.


17 posted on 03/17/2010 12:00:08 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (I am in America but not of America (per bible: am in the world but not of it))
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To: HiTech RedNeck

Bit it up and *offer* it down.

And it takes money to do that, the same as if you try to move Intel stock or oil or any other market. Of course, Intrade contracts are going to be a lot less liquid.

Apparently in 2004 someone market ordered Bush presidential contracts all the way to zero to try to manipulate the market. The article I read was saying this would’ve taken hundreds of thousands of dollars to do.

Naturally it rebounded, and apparently came all the way back to where it was. So basically somebody just gave everyone else incredibly cheap buys—the same as happens when someone tries to artificially move any other market.


18 posted on 03/17/2010 2:50:25 AM PDT by BobbyT
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To: HiTech RedNeck

3 things:

1) it’s back up up up up up

2) it’s against the rules to stalk from thread to thread, you do it again and I ping the mods, pinkneck

3) Your argument is incredibly lame. If the odds at Intrade are a reliable indication, then they are reliable when they’re saying good things about conservatism’s chances or bad things. But you seem to only give it credence when it’s saying something good about what you like, and call Freepers a troll if they give credence to its results on the downside as well. Lame. Triple lame, because now the whole basis of your namecalling has been wiped out by you giving credence to the result. That not only makes you lame-o, but it makes you a real jerk.

Will ‘Obamacare’ health care reform become law in the United States?
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
OBAMACARE.PASS.JUN10
‘Obamacare’ health care reform (see contract rules) to become law before midnight ET 30 Jun 2010 M Trade 66.0 67.5 65.5 12622 +30

Order Book
OBAMACARE.PASS.JUN10
BID
Qty Price
1 66.0
1 65.1
20 65.0
1 64.1
1 63.1

ASK
Price Qty
67.5 6
68.0 5
70.0 1
71.0 1
72.2 1


19 posted on 03/17/2010 11:29:19 PM PDT by Kevmo (So America gets what America deserves - the destruction of its Constitution. ~Leo Donofrio, 6/1/09)
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To: arista

shucks, I missed my chance to cash in


20 posted on 03/17/2010 11:30:10 PM PDT by Kevmo (So America gets what America deserves - the destruction of its Constitution. ~Leo Donofrio, 6/1/09)
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