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Intrade Puts Obamacare at Having 75% Chanceof Passing
intrade ^

Posted on 03/15/2010 1:08:25 PM PDT by big black dog

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=Will+%27Obamacare%27+health+care+reform+become+law+in+the+United+States%3F


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 111th; bhohealthcare; intrade
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To: 9YearLurker
Let's hope the congressman is right about votes peeling off. In any case, my prayers and phone calls aren't stopping!

Today I've called my Representative (Allyson Schwartz). She's a hopeless lefty, but I have to call from time to time to let her staff know I that I'm paying attention, and that I look forward to supporting her electoral opponent. (Her phone lines didn't appear to be busy).

I've also called Congressmen Stupak (MI), Altmire (PA) and Gordon (TN). All the staffers were very cordial and although the phones were busy, I got through. The woman in Cookeville TN told me they'd been hearing from all over the nation and welcomed my comments even though I told her I was from PA, with only family roots in her district. Congressman Altmire's phones were very busy, but I got through to one of the PA offices after 2 or 3 tries. I made sure I played up my connections with each of the districts in hopes they'd give a passing thought to my call.

Making a call doesn't seem like much, but I always think about my friend who used to work as a director of constituent services for one of our PA senators. She told me that every call was recorded on a tally sheet of pro/con positions on key issues. The numbers were communicated to DC daily or even more often in order to gauge public sentiment. She's always encouraged me to call, call, call, so I do, do, do!

21 posted on 03/15/2010 2:01:39 PM PDT by Think free or die
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To: 9YearLurker

What we don’t know is how many Democrats, if any, that Pelosi had in reserve back when they passed the original House bill. I suspect that several conservative Dems were ‘let out’ of the vote in the interests of preserving their seats. Bet that won’t happen this time around.

They may be short on votes — probably are — but it might be far less than the 10 votes stated in NRO.


22 posted on 03/15/2010 2:57:02 PM PDT by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: mamelukesabre

If it fails to pass which it will, Obama will be gutted politically.


23 posted on 03/15/2010 7:19:56 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil

I agree. And that’s why I think they won’t hesitate to use every dirty trick in the book and some that aren’t to make sure it does pass.


24 posted on 03/15/2010 7:30:52 PM PDT by mamelukesabre (Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum (If you want peace prepare for war))
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To: mamelukesabre

No... he won’t be a lame duck. he’ll be politically hurt, for sure, but 2012 is a long way off. Clinton failed at his healthcare takeover too... and it didn’t make him a lame duck.


25 posted on 03/15/2010 7:38:14 PM PDT by Ramius (Personally, I give us... one chance in three. More tea?)
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To: big black dog

I’m kicking myself today because I almost bought a bunch of shares yesterday as an emotional hedge — if Obamacare passes, I make money & don’t feel so bad; if it fails, I just paid to seal its fate.

Instead, I don’t even have bragging rights.

I suppose if anyone “knows” for certain which way this will go, they’ll make money on it. It looks reasonably priced to me right now.


26 posted on 03/15/2010 9:08:35 PM PDT by Kevmo (So America gets what America deserves - the destruction of its Constitution. ~Leo Donofrio, 6/1/09)
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To: 9YearLurker
Dreier also repeated the warnings about the Senate that many Congressional Republicans have been issuing to the other side of the aisle. He said that, assuming House Democrats succeed in passing a reconciliation measure along to the Senate, even marginal changes made there would require the measure to return to the House yet again.

If the house passes the senate bill but reconciliation fails in the senate, the Dems lose the battle and win the war.

27 posted on 03/15/2010 10:59:23 PM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Pat Caddell: Democrats are drinking kool-aid in a political Jonestown)
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To: big black dog

How can it NOT pass? The Obama administration has the wealth of the American taxpayers at their disposal to bribe as many congressmen as it takes.


28 posted on 03/15/2010 11:01:55 PM PDT by Junior_G (Funny how liberals' love affair with Muslims began on 9/11)
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