Social Security: "Here It Comes"

The Market Ticker ^ | 3-15-10 | Karl Denninger

[HangnJudge]

This year, for the first time since the 1980s, when Congress last overhauled Social Security, the retirement program is projected to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes -- nearly $29 billion more.

In a world where we talk about trillions, this doesn't sound like much. But it's not the amount that's the problem - it's the direction.

For decades government has cooked its books by stealing the Social Security taxes you pay. This was the infamous "lock box" debate had during Gore's campaign. Too bad Mr. "the world's getting hotter so I have to live in my 20,000 sqft mansion with the AC blasting in all 79 rooms" Gore decided to make a partisan political issue out of something that his boss (that would be Herr Clinton) had practiced himself to make the (false) claim that he had run a surplus!

There was no surplus in the 1990s folks. Clinton, like the Presidents before and after him (from both sides of the aisle) simply stole the FICA tax receipts, replacing them with non-marketable bonds.

If you're wondering why we have hinky accounting in our banks, a good part of the reason is that our government cooks the hell out of the books themselves.

There's little reason for private business to behave ethically when our government won't, and there's little risk of prosecution when the scamming starts at the very top.

In order for the government to redeem these bonds it will have to issue more marketable debt, dollar-for-dollar. So if you look at the "Debt To The Penny" screen, what will begin to happen is that the "Intragovernmental holdings" (and boy are they mental) will shrink a bit, while the "Debt Held By the Public" line will of course grow.

[HangnJudge]

More than a decade ago I wrote a paper called "Investable Capital" which, unfortunately, I no longer have available for republication. What's worse is that some of the data set has been lost - at least I think it has. I expected that the negative FICA draw would begin in 2015, and that this would make a major shift in all market valuations. We're five yeas ahead of that time, largely due to the bubble-blowing. The original paper saw the Internet Bubble (because it was nascent at the time) but did not predict what Bush and Greedspan would do to try to arrest the effect of it popping.

We talk about ratings agencies downgrading the US Debt - they should have done it a decade ago. Why? Because we continually call the debt-to-GDP ratio as $12.57 trillion to ~$14 trillion "right", or 89.8%, while ignoring the claimed amounts of the Social Security and Medicare promises. But unless you're going to tell Granny that she's not going to get her check (or her health care), along with the 80 million boomers (all of who will instantly vote out anyone who tries to tamper with those programs, whether the money exists or not!) those "promises" are real.

So what's the real debt-to-GDP ratio of the federal government? About 500%, if one assumes the forward liabilities are on the low end of CBO and private estimates, or $60 trillion. This makes the total "debt" $72 trillion dollars and the ratio 514%!

No nation has ever managed to pull that off past the point of recognition of these costs. The reason is simple - interest costs. Compute the damage that, say, 5% interest imposes on $72 trillion and you blanch immediately (that's $3.6 trillion by the way, or more than our entire federal budget!) We get away with not paying that by sleight-of-hand, effectively playing "Option ARM" and adding to the principal. But all Option ARMs have a recast point. We're just not sure where this one is.

Once the "recognition point" happens the decline in all asset classes becomes both relentless and instantaneous. The power of self-delusion is powerful, but it cannot overcome the math - not in the long term.

[fhayek]

yikes

[Zeddicus]

Ok. So yeah, this is going to end well.

[Sacajaweau]

don’t worry...we have this new program which only collects for a few years before it starts paying out....we can borrow from that...

[Old Retired Army Guy]

They will gradually raise the age for full benefits from 65 to 70 and reduced benefits from 62 to 67 and lift the cap on income for taxing for SS.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I expect a “means” test will also be a new qualifier.
‘swhy I'm signing up while I can.

[evad]

"the retirement program is projected to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes -"

Wow..that's early. Originally that date was projected into 2014 or 2015.

Bush's Fault!!!

[ilovesarah2012]

They obviously need to do something.

[dalebert]

buy a hunting rifle, ammo, a cow, some chickens and vegetable seeds...and lamp oil if you want to see after dark..

[caver]

I’m retiring early. I’m tired of supporting all the low life leeches in this country.

[Caipirabob]

Bottom line, you're getting deathcare and you'll like it...

[zeugma]

Been watching this for quite some time myself. Yup. It’s gonna get messy. Unfortunately, those responsible in politics and the press who continue to cover for this ponzi scheme probably won’t get what they truly deserve.

[ravingnutter]

Heck, that is a miniscule problem compared to what is coming:

Class Warfare's Next Target: 401(k) Savings

The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k)

I don't think lynch mobs use Judges ; )

[HangnJudge]

Yup
The unfunded mandate is unsupportable under any protocol

The # of people who will die
is an integer multiple of 10,000,000
And, as best I can see
there is nothing to stop it
GovMint efforts will only make it worse

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

But the Government promised us the SS would NEVER go broke! Here is a statement from 1964!

http://www.ssa.gov/history/ssa/usa1964-2.html

Self-Supporting

The program is designed so that contributions plus interest on the investments of the social security trust funds will be sufficient to meet all of the costs of benefits and administration, now and into the indefinite future—without any subsidy from the general funds of the Government. Both the Congress and the Executive Branch, regardless of political party in power, have scrupulously provided in advance for full financing of all liberalizations in the program.

***
And where the money you pay in goes...

http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/ProgData/fundFAQ.html#n4

And an old song to go with it...

THE OLD AGE PENSION CHECK
Roy Acuff & His Smoky Mountain Boys - 1939

When our old age pension check comes to our door,
We won’t have to dread the poor house anymore.
Though we’re old and thin and gray,
Good times will be back to stay,
When our old age pension check comes to our door.
When her old age pension check comes to her door,
Dear old grandma won’t be lonesome any more.
She’ll be waiting at the gate,
Every night she’ll have a date,
When her old age pension check comes to her door.

Grow a flowing long white beard and use a cane,
‘Cause you’re in your second childhood, don’t complain.
Life will just begin at sixty,
We’ll all feel very frisky,
When our old age pension check comes to our door.

Powder and paint will be abolished on that day,
And hoop skirts will then be brought back into play.
Painted cheeks will be the rage,
And old maids will tell their age,
When their old age pension check comes to their door.

All the drug stores will go bankrupt on that day,
For cosmetics, they will all be put away.
I’ll put a flapper on the shelf,
Get a grandma for myself,
When her old age pension check comes to her door.

There’s a man that turned this country upside-down
With his old age pension rumor going ‘round.
If you want in on the fun,
Send your dime to Washington,
And that old age pension man will be around.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Great.
I signed up today !

[count-your-change]

Now unsign. You're supposed to pay in all your life and then die before collecting what you were taxed for during good times and bad. Everybody can't get old and collect, can they?

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I get $1729 a month.
Woo Hoo !

[Defiant]

The pathetic thing is that while FDR was selling this thing as a trust fund in the 30s, when it got challenged in the Supreme Court, they told the court what it really was--a tax, plain and simple. Back then it was only 1 or 2 percent. Now it's 14 percent.

The Supreme Court had to uphold it because the 16th Amendment authorizes taxes. No one ever explained the duplicity to the American people, at least not in a way that got to them.

[PogySailor]

Hey, there’s plenty of money in IRA’s and 401k plans we can seize as well! /Obamabot