MICHAEL BARONE: Can Nancy Pelosi Get the Votes?

Wall Street Journal ^ | MARCH 11, 2010 | MICHAEL BARONE

[neverdem]

The Senate bill's abortion language is not the House Speaker's only problem.

Are there enough votes in the House to pass the Senate's health-care bill? As of today, it's clear there aren't. House Democratic leaders have brushed aside White House calls to bring the bill forward by March 18, when President Barack Obama heads to Asia. Nevertheless, analysts close to the Democratic leadership tell me they're confident the leadership will find some way to squeeze out the 216 votes needed for a majority.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi has indeed shown mastery at amassing majorities. But it's hard to see how she'll do so on this one. The arithmetic as I see it doesn't add up.

The House passed its version of the health bill in November by 220-215. Of those 220, one was a Republican who now is a no. One Democrat who voted yes has died, two Democrats who voted yes have resigned, and one Democrat who voted no has resigned as well. So if everyone but the Republican votes the way they did four months ago, the score would be 216-215.

But not everyone is ready to vote that way. The House bill included an amendment prohibiting funding of abortions sponsored by Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak. The Senate bill did not. Mr. Stupak says he and 10 to 12 other members won't vote for the Senate bill for that reason. Others have said the same, including Minnesota's James Oberstar, chairman of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, and Dan Lipinski, a product of the Chicago Democratic machine.

Mrs. Pelosi may have some votes in reserve—members who would have voted yes if she needed them in November and would do so again. But we can be pretty sure she doesn't have more than 10, or she wouldn't have allowed...

[Old Teufel Hunden]

No one is even mentioning the taxes on the cadillac insurance plans that lefty democrats don’t want in the bill but is in the Senate bill. Does anyone think this one’s getting through reconcilliation? I hope the Republicans say if we’re going to screw the whole country, we’ll just let the unions be screwed also and they gum this up so there’s no tax break.

[Art in Idaho]

Obama thinks we are wearing down, but we Have Just Begun to Fight! Keep up those Calls!

Obamacare call list: Courtsey of TN Eagle Forum:

PLEASE CALL! DC OFFICE LOCAL OFFICE State District

Harry Mitchell (202) 225-2190 (480) 946-2411 AZ 5th District

Gabrielle Giffords (202) 225-2542 (520) 881-3588 AZ 8th District

Ann Kirkpatrick (202) 225-2315 (928) 226-6914 AZ 1st District

Jerry McNerney (202) 225-1947 925-833-0643 CA 11th District

John Salazar 202-225-4761 970-245-7107 CO 3rd District

Jim Himes (202) 225-5541 (866) 453-0028 CT 4th District

Alan Grayson (202) 225-2176 (407) 841-1757 FL 8th District

Bill Foster (202) 225-2976 630-406-1114 IL 14th District

Baron Hill 202 225 5315 812 288 3999 IN 9th District

Mark Schauer (202) 225-6276 (517) 780-9075 MI 7th District

Gary Peters (202) 225-5802 (248) 273-4227 MI 9th District

Dina Titus (202) 225-3252 702-256-DINA (3462) NV 3rd District

Carol Shea-Porter (202) 225-5456 (603) 743-4813 NH 1st District

Tim Bishop (202) 225-3826 (631) 696-6500 NY 1st District

John Hall (202) 225-5441 (845) 225-3641 x49371 NY 19th District

Bill Owens (202) 225-4611 (315) 782-3150 NY 23rd District

Mike Arcuri (202)225-3665 (315)793-8146 NY 24th District

Dan Maffei (202) 225-3701 (315) 423-5657 NY 25th District

Earl Pomeroy (202) 225-2611 (701) 224-0355 ND At-Large District

Steven Driehaus (202) 225-2216 (513) 684-2723 OH 1st District

Mary Jo Kilroy (202) 225-2015 (614) 294-2196 OH 15th District

Zach Space (202) 225-6265 (330) 364-4300 OH 18th District

Kathy Dahlkemper (202) 225-5406 (814) 456-2038 PA 3rd District

Patrick Murphy (202) 225-4276 (215) 826-1963 PA 8th District

Christopher Carney (202) 225-3731 (570) 585-9988 PA 10th District

Paul Kanjorski (202) 225-6511 (570) 825-2200 PA 11th District

John Spratt (202) 225-5501 (803)327-1114 SC 5th District

Tom Perriello (202) 225-4711 (276) 656-2291 VA 5th District

Alan Mollohan (202) 225-4172 (304) 623-4422 WVA 1st District

Nick Rahall (202) 225-3452 (304) 252-5000 WVA 3rd District

Steve Kagen (202) 225-5665 (920) 437-1954 WI 8th District

Bart Gordon (202) 225-4231 TN (A MAYBE)

Bart Stupak (202) 225 4735 MI

Brian Baird (202) 225-3536, Vancouver, (360) 695-6292. Olympia, (360) 352-9768, WA (A MAYBE)

Senator Mark Begich, Alaska, (202) 224-3004 toll free. (877) 501 - 6275 just became a MAYBE - His brother Nick the HAARP investigator. . . from Art Bell days

John Tanner (202) 225-4714, Union City, (731) 885-7070, Jackson Phone: (731) 423-4848, Millington (901) 873-5690 TN (A MAYBE)

NO to Socialized Medicine!

[karnage]

Barone gives Pelosi high marks for shrewdness and mastery of the process of amassing enough votes to win. That worries me, as I consider Barone to be the most astute political analyst on the American scene today. OTOH, Barone enumerates the many challenges facing the Speaker.

[karnage]

Barone doesn’t consider her to be idiotic or a dunce. He respects her political arm-twisting skills. Therefore, so do I.

[neverdem]

IMHO, I thought comment# 14 of the Barone thread had some interesting links.

Drones and Terrorism

DARPA Plans Unmanned Versions of the A-10, F-4 and F16 and a hypersonic plane

Air Force's Flying Assassin Robot Enters Final Development Stage

The Logarithmic Effect of Carbon Dioxide

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

[Gator113]

I hate to be the pessimist here, but I believe that bitch already has the votes and she will call for a vote this week. She has the bottomless checkbook.

[PGalt]

Thanks for the ping/post/links and comments.

Social security marches over the backs of dead Americans.

National health care will march over the backs of many more dead Americans.

Individuals and their rights be damned. Collectivism/statism marches on.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

:

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Let me see if Drudge still has his nice little ...Photo:

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SHE'S LOSING HER GRIP!

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest.

• Romney tops bestseller list
• Mitt Romney: Pro-Choice? Who, Me? (Mitt now claims he was NEVER Pro-Choice)
• Unemployment rises in 30 states in January
• Weekly jobless claims dip 6,000 to 462,000

[BunnySlippers]

Every pore on Nancy’s face was showing!

[Tribune7]

Can Admiral Joe Be A Health Care No?

[NCC-1701]

Can you even imagine what she looks like WITHOUT makeup? Kinda makes you cringe at that visual.

[GUNGAGALUNGA]

I wonder if she has seen Rahm naked?

[Mr Rogers]

Gabby Giffords (AZ-8) has supported Obama’s bill since before it existed. She demonstrated at townhalls in Aug - that she nearly had to be forced at gunpoint to do - that she doesn’t give a rat’s rear end about what people think. Calling her is a waste of time.

On several votes where she was allowed to vote ‘conservative’, she remained at the well with a democrat vote, ready to switch her vote if Pelosi needed. I wouldn’t be too surprised if she and Pelosi are doing some Massa-action in backrooms!

[BigEdLB]

Can Al Qaeda recruit suicide bombers? Could the Japanese recruit kamikaze pilots?

[GonzoGOP]

Of course they’ll get the votes. Pelosi’s got a bottomless checkbook to bribe them with.

One problem is that you need to retain control of congress in order to ensure that the bribes get paid. Pelosi's ability to bribe is inversely proportional to the probability that the GOP will take over the congress. Since that becomes 100% if they pass this disaster of a bill her ability to grant any bribe that will has not been paid in full prior to January of next year is 0.

Also no dem in the house wants to be the counterpart to the Corn Husker Hustle.

Finally there is beginning to be a current that even if the dems hold on to the house in November, Nancy will not be speaker. Obama isn't thrilled with her and it is looking like Reid will be gone. So the dems, with a much smaller majority and having to deal with the GOP on every single bill, may put in someone who isn't damaged goods. Once again this limits her ability to either bribe or threaten member of her own party.

[Danae]

Nancy = FAIL.