Posted on 03/04/2010 1:27:51 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Yesterday they needed 216 to pass it, now they need 217. Like Ace says: Nomentum.
U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal will delay his resignation from Congress by three weeks, citing intense pressure from House Republican leaders to remain and vote against President Barack Obama’s plan to overhaul the nation’s health care system…
News of Deal’s decision was inadvertently broken by U.S. Rep. Phil Gingrey, who congratulated Deal on his decision.
On Monday, before 100 supporters at the Gainesville Civic Center, Deal said he would leave Congress, effective March 8, in order to devote all his time to his campaign for governor.
Obama could in theory push the vote back into April or May to wait Deal out and force him to resign before the bill comes to the floor, but after Gibbs set a deadline of March 18 for passage this morning, he’ll look like an even weaker chump than usual if he does that.
A quick Democratic head count: Shelley Berkley, who voted yes in November, is a likely no this time. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Frank Kratovil — who was named in that dopey AP piece a few days ago as a possible flip to yes — voted no last time and say they’re voting that way again. The only way to flip all three? The Senate has to pass Obama’s “fix” to Reid’s Senate bill before the House votes on anything. If they do it the other way, with the House passing Reid’s bill first, there’s a chance that reconciliation could collapse in the Senate, leaving the House stuck with the Reid bill they pretty much all hate (albeit for different reasons).
Geraghty’s been doing yeoman’s work trying to figure out precisely what has to happen for Pelosi to get to 217. According to his latest calculation, every last pro-life Democrat who’s threatening to vote no with Stupak this time would have to flip to yes; if even one of them votes no — which seems exceedingly likely — it’s all over. And that assumes that House progressives will fall in line and stick with their yes votes from November. By no means is that a sure thing; remember, Raul Grijalva says he’s “pretty certain” that several liberals are ready to walk away this time. In fact, Roll Call claims they were pestering The One at last night’s White House health-care huddle about possibly reviving, er, the public option. Good luck with that, champ. The long and short of it is, unless I’ve missed a story somewhere, not a single Democrat who voted no before has committed to flipping to yes this time. The momentum is entirely the other way.
They can reset reconciliation for later using the new budget bill, but that will take a while, and then they would be near the election.
Still nothing to stop them from just passing the Senate bill in December, after they get voted out of office, just to spite us.
Kent Conrad and other reconcilation experts (Morrissey, NRO) have unequivocally stated that the House must pass the Senate bill first. They cannot change a single comma, and they are taking a yes vote on all the corruption.
Pelosi is in trouble and Boehner was shrewd to force her hand today. He is keeping seniors stirred up, escalating pressure on all vulnerable RATS, and raising expectations on the Left.
Pelosi will not schedule a vote unless and until she has the votes. She would never subject her members to another needless and precarious exercise. My guess is that she blame Stupak.
Until the Senate bill is signed and is the law, there cannot be a reconciliation bill to change it. Of course, they can override the rules if they want, and who is going to stop them?
I agree. It's a risk but a very small one. But if it's all Pelosi has left I still think she will hang on to it. We should know soon. This can't go on forever.
Unfortunately you're right; Those who already dislike him will say "See? he'll do anything to pass this over any objections" and those who already like him will say "See? He's such a master tactician", and those who don't know will say "Sorry I had to miss Desperate Housewives last night - what happened?".
You might be right. I only said I wouldn’t put it past him to do that.
Every “know” vote counts!
why is he resigning?
Most experts believe that they can proceed to reconciliation without the president’s signature, but it is still a question.
The emphatic point that I want to make - so that everyone is on the same page - is that the House must pass the noxious Senate bill as-is b4 anything else can happen.
If reconciliation then breaks down in either chamber, those House RATS are stuck with that poisonous vote... Enacting the Conhusker kickback, Louisiana purchase et al
Knowing what they’re up to puts him to an advantage. He has
NO illusions of their games and what they want to turn this
country into, I’m sure; and will act accordingly if he is
brave and smart.
To run for governor and to avoid ethics complaints with his auto salvage and title company
>> Deal said he would leave Congress, effective March 8, in order to devote all his time to his campaign for governor.
Democrats hold their seats, so should Republicans.
The only problem will be what will be the “go” signal... the tipping point? Will there be a “shot heard ‘round the world”?
If you go outside and you are the only one in the street with your rifle, you better get back inside or the state police will pick you off.
However, if you come out of your house, armed, and you join up with 100 other like minded people, that is the signal that “it’s on!”
If it isn’t voted on before the Easter break, the constituents are going to beat the cr@p out of the Demons at home. It will never pass once they get an earful.
thanks...
You know, they did lose in the end . . .
If his campaign ambitions for a higher position caused the Obamacare to be passed in the House, he could guarantee he wouldn’t have ANY job.
Smart decision Nathan. Just that you considered it without regard for the HUGE vote that’s expected makes me question voting for you anyway.
I personally don’t ever want to see a Civil War. The last one was horrific. But just because I don’t want to see one.... well I will not bury my head in the sand. I was expecting one back in the early 70’s, one based on race. I saw the tensions ratcheting higher and higher. But then it just fizzled away. And I still don’t know why.
This time? The tensions are back and they aren’t race related this time. It’s both politics and economic with a touch of racial overtones in the cities.
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