Posted on 02/23/2010 7:16:58 PM PST by Free ThinkerNY
I confess to not having read this guy’s blog before, but (a) his sidebar resume is certainly respectable and (b) he’s taken seriously enough by Jonathan Chait to have earned a post today at TNR showcasing his glorious, glorious results.
The standard “anything can happen before November” caveat applies, but between this and Charlie Cook’s warning last week, we’re slowly moving from a “can the GOP take back the House?” reality to a “how many more seats than the Dems will the GOP end up with?” reality. Here’s where things stand on the Great Liberal Realignment of 2008:
The generic House ballot is tilting to Republicans in ways not seen… ever. Or as Michael Barone put it, the Republican margin currently seen is “historically unprecedented”. To those unfamiliar with the generic ballot, it is the question asked on national surveys that goes something like this “If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district?” I have often (in my own head) questioned the usefulness of the generic ballot because House elections are held in districts not nationally, and surveys are only getting at most a few respondents from each district for each survey. But the fact of the matter is that vast majority of research indicates (see Charles Franklin, Matthew Shugart, and the Pew Research Center among others) that if you properly use the results from the question, you can get a pretty good idea of what is going to happen…
How will the generic ballot results from 2010 at this point translate into vote in the general election?
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
I’m not fantasizing about anything actually.
And I wouldn’t put the lot in jail either.
Never underestimate the ability of Teh Stupid Party to blow yet another hole in their collective feet when handed the opportunity of a lifetime.
I don't get the negativity. Where do you think the opposition to Obama comes from? No one was "handed" anything. Republicans have been working against Obama since he surfaced.
Haven't noticed how many golden opportunities the "R's" have been handed and squandered?
As Glenn Reynolds keeps saying,
"Don't get cocky, kid..."
Left says the same thing about Democrats. Negatively and predicting failure achieves nothing.
Bye...
Apparently Gary Peters is threatened in Oakland county.
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