Posted on 02/23/2010 10:52:18 AM PST by Zakeet
Harry Joe crunches the numbers and, based on the generic balloting right now, says the House is all but gone for the Democrats:
With current polling in conjunction with Bafumi et al.'s paper predicting a Republican national vote between 53.6% and 54.7%, the Republicans could easily gain 50-60 seats from their current 178. Gains of greater than 60 seats also look quite possible. Even in the best case scenario for the Democrats, it would seem that holding the House would be very, very difficult.
The whole post is worth reading -- he's not just pulling numbers out of his ass. This graph, an extrapolation as he concedes, suggests the possibility that the election good be literally off-the-charts bad for Democrats:
Of course, it's also possible that the worst has passed for the party, and that they can rally the base with a health care bill, maybe get some decent economic news, and just suffer a normal terrible midterm election rather than a history-making one.
Note; The article underlying the news story, Republican Blizzard on the Generic Ballot, is also worth a read IMHO. If you check it out, try not to laugh too loudly at the anguished comment from the anonymous libtard at the bottom of the page.
What type of republicans will we get though?
Now is NOT the time for a “new era of bipartisanship”, Scott Brown.
Great. And then what? Or are we just cheering at a sporting event?
This guy is delusional.
“Republican Blizzard on the Generic Ballot”
Your link “does not exist on this server.”
I wouldn’t start celebrating too soon for 2 reasons:
1) The Dems are sitting on quite a wad of stimulus cash that can be used for the usual vote buying when the time gets nearer.
2) Republicans != Conservatives
I’m a big cynic...the years will do that to you. Sure it will be a Republican sweep in November (and, in fact, I will help with my vote) but I can’t get over the feeling we are all being snookered. I am beginning to believe the stories about a “cabal” running our government and the two parties are just a big sham. Whomever is pulling Obama’s strings now, will also be calling the shots when the Republicans get in. I have lost faith in our government and in elections. Those “elected” (with the help of voter fraud) by the people just continue the same agenda.
My thoughts exactly, vis-à-vis, I am sure that the RNC is doing everything in their power to prevent this tsunami.
“What type of republicans will we get though?”
The ones who win the primaries so ... VOTE IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES!!!
“What type of republicans will we get though?”
Excellent question.
In the past, conservatives have focused on the general elections while CINOs have worked hard during the primaries. The result, of course, has been general election candidates like Voinovich, Specter, McCain, et al.
Now is the time for conservatives to work hard—in the primary season. Support Hayworth, Rubio, DeVore, and other conservatives in the primary so we won’t have to hold our noses in November.
I have not seen enough change in the repubs for them to have votes being cast for them. If they win, it will be because of people voting against democrats. That is not the kind of victory conservatives need in the long run.
good question...hope some teaparty people start running for office...republicans still dont get it...
Sorry about the senior moment. Try this one.
53.6 - 54.7%??? We can do better than that...MUCH better. Hell; some districts in Philadelphia have recorded 110% turn out. Certainly we can pull 65%... :-)
Do NOT let ‘cross over’ Democrats choose your candidates, conservatives. CLOSE the damn primaries...
The fix is real easy.
It’s called TERM LIMITS
An idiot supreme! For every base voter they get they'll stir up two broken-glass anti voters.
You are probably more right than wrong about that.
The current problem in America is that government is a special interest unto itself and thus works for its own benefit rather than for the benefit of the nation as a whole. The Tea Parties are a threat to this as the aim of the Tea Parties is to elect people who will work for the benefit of the nation and not for the benefit of the political class.
The political class is not composed solely of politicians but includes bureaucrats and those who depend on government for enough of their income/power that any change in government that might cut into this is perceived as a grave threat. The Tea Parties threaten much more than the security of the 537 elected officials in Washington or those in state houses around the country. The Tea Parties threaten entrenched government dependent groups and companies all across the nation. So the Tea Parties will be mercilessly attacked and, at the same time, relentless attempts will be made to co-opt them. The whole point is to render the Tea Parties impotent. Real change is not wanted at any level of government.
The only solution is for the Tea Parties to persevere. It will take years to accomplish any real reduction of the government leviathan and to reinstitute Constitutional government. At a minimum I would say it will take 5 election cycles to get enough real constitutionalists in to positions of power to effect any real change. And all the while those making this effort will be attacked while at the same time various agents of the establishment will be attempting to co-opt the movement.
Not an easy task. Not likely either. But not impossible.
This time, I hope they give us an agenda we can vote FOR instead of just voting against the "other guys."
I hope they've learned from the tea parties that Americans are tired of being used as slaves for them and half the population. They can cut way back like everyone else (have you heard one politician say they're going to cut back on hairdressers, butlers, drivers, or staff members of their own????), and for gosh sakes - make the democrat base pay their own bills for a change! Make them get their own jobs!
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