Rasmussen: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (-19)

Rasmussen ^ | February 21, 2010 | Scott Rasmussen

[newfreep]

"...to knock this number down into the high 30s, which I think will likely be his permanent high/low because of an unmovable 12% of blacks and 25% hard-core libs.

Generally agree except blacks & hard core libs are not mutually exclusive so he has more room to drop/fail.

[Erik Latranyi]

Health care = 1 term

Do Obama and liberals have the guts to pull that trigger?

[wayoverontheright]

In parties and in the work place, people increasingly can make disparaging remarks about Obama without triggering a tirade from a strong supporter.

Yes, Obama supporters in my circle of friends have gone silent. He is embarrassing them.

I have a Canadian friend who asked me prior to the election why I didn't like Obama. I replied to her that I was once a lefty and I can recognize a die-hard Marxist when I see one. I said that if he got elected he was going to turn the country into Cuba.

She's a very sweet person and later I began to feel I'd been too harsh in my analogy. Maybe I should have said France, I thought. Or perhaps Europe. Cuba. Wow. Can anyone deny now that that's where we'd be headed without Democracy standing in his way?

I never took back the Cuba analogy. I feel vindicated now. She doesn't want to talk about it.

[ODDITHER]

If that 21% was made up of far leftists, then I would be jumping up and down, because it would mean that America soundly rejects socialism and social justice and social global warming and all the other social sciences rolled up into one radical view.

If that 21% is just the blacks that refuse to look past the color of his skin to his politics, would the numbers change dramatically if he started giving each of his special interest groups what they want?

We know that the Democratic Party is made up of radical leaders and special interest groups.

Homosexuals - not all homosexuals but those homosexuals that believe they should have special rights like other minorites and want the rest of America to be forced to accept their lifestyle

Abortion- Not just those who believe abortion should be kept legal but those who believe it should be allowed as often as wanted at any time during the pregnancy even after birth, and that it should be treated the same as any other birth control method. Not only should it be readily available and free but it should be encouraged to the point that any other options should be ignored or silenced.

Feminism - Not just those women who believe that the females of the species should be treated as equals to the males but those who believe that the male is no longer necessary and should be treated as a disease. They support women unless those women hold family friendly or conservative.

Immigration- They not only believe immigrants should be treated equal to citizens but they believe that illegal immigrants should be treated equal to citizens and should be afforded the same rights and free government services that citizens and legal immigrants have. They encourage those illegal immigrants to file lawsuits against any American who tries to enforce the laws, including the immigration laws or try to protect their private property from illegal immigrant envasion.

National Security, They believe the only reason there are terrorists is because our nation deserves it. We have become successful because of our freedoms and that success means that we have taken advantage of the poor nations. Terrorists have valid complaints that would go away if we shared our wealth with enough nations until we are all third world nations economically.

Foreign policy - We need to allow global socialism to occur naturally by allowing the UN to enforce the global warming treaties.

Environmentalism - Regardless of the affects on constitutional rights, economy or humans and regardless of whether it can be scientifically proven to cause global warming the government should be allowed to do anything necessary to protect the planet. Planet and animals come before the needs of humans.

Racism - Whites should have a portion of their property, income and individual rights taken away and given to black people to repay them for their years of suffering during slavery. Regardless of whether those blacks had ancestors that were slaves or just came to America or regardless of whether the whites had ancestors who owned slaves, all people who do not believe in the Democratic party principles must be treated as racists, even though Democrats believe that minorities are not smart enough or capable of competing in education or work with white people and must be given special rights to succeed.

[newfreep]

Do Obama and liberals have the guts to pull that trigger?

Yes, because it's all about "the cause" - to impose socialism onto America.

So there are plenty of martyrs for "the cause" and why the MAO-bama & his socialists are continuing to push this bill and using every means necessary to pass "the crown jewel of socialism".

[hal ogen]

What great news for our Great Country! nobama need recalled because of obvious manufacturing flaws. Everybody hates him and his marxist policies, but only some express that.

[Fresh Wind]

It’s interesting to look at the “somewhat” numbers:

Total approve - strongly approve = somewhat approve (23%)
Total disapprove - strongly disapprove = somewhat disapprove (13%)

This shows how weak 0.0’s support really is.

[Starboard]

Exactly. Congress critters are treated like gods, even if their party is not in power. It’s a real head trip for them. There’s a name for this phenomena: Potomac Fever.

[liberty or death]

That and he is too arrogant to shut up. I don’t know anyone who doesn’t change the channel on the radio or TV when the perpetual speechifier comes on.

[Sequoyah101]

WHOOP!

Dive, dive, dive...I hope his submarine has screen doors.

[hondact200]

Obama has his head stuck up his backside, due to the fact he is not listening to the American people. Maybe he needs to turn up the hearing aids. The Moron is just deaf.

Here in the UP of Michigan the 100 million pine trees listen to a country station better than he listens to the unified voice of the American People. Gee those 100 million trees cannot be wrong.

[Liz]

22% of voters strongly approve Obama's performance; 22% of all psychiatric patients have a strong propensity for suicide.

ROTFL-----numbers don't lie, even though politicans do.

[backhoe]

I agree with your assessment on his (Obama’s) left-wing, liberal, progressive base numbers, but I disagree with your estimate of Black voter support. Yes, an overwhelming number of Black folk today still support Obama, but that support will erode as more Black folk come to find that Obama will do more damage to them then all the White racists in the world combined.

My city is 58% black, and you would be surprised at how much high-fiving, hoorahing, thumbs-up, and hat-waving my

"Don't Blame Me- I voted for Sarah- You Betcha!"

bumper sticker gets...

OK, once in a while I get an eco-box or land yacht ( inevitably driven by a very young or very old white person ) that runs almost up my tailpipe, whips around me, and nearly creases the left front fender as they pass...

Besides the "Yes, We Did!" they usually have a "Coexist" sticker...

[nathanbedford]

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove.

Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove

22% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve

In order for Obama to win a general election in a two-man race he must somehow pick up 5% of the votes to get to 50% plus one vote. It is unlikely that he will get any of those votes from the 41% who strongly disapprove of him therefore if he is to find an additional 5% he must find them among those who somewhat disapprove of him. Since we know that 41% "strongly" disapprove of him we deduce that 13% somewhat disapprove of Obama. (Let's not worry about the missing 1%) that means that Obama must get five of every 13 disapproving voters or 38.4%, a daunting challenge. More, he must do so without alienating a single voter among the 22% who "strongly" approve of him.

This means if he moves right to attract those who somewhat disapprove of him, he is liable to lose those who strongly approve of him who, presumably, are committed leftists. Moreover, he must make this pivot while keeping the intensity up so that all of his troops go to the polls. The more he keeps up the intensity the less likely he is to find five voters among the 13.

These numbers tell us that in an election held now Obama would lose a two-man race. So the Republicans being who they are, we can almost count on a three man race, Perot style, occurring in 2012.

[RedMDer]

I believe that’s the plan. Anarchy loosed, zero takes absolute power.

Great poster.

[rep-always]

Yep. This week is back to the phones and letting them know we are still here watching and will not let them get away with this reconciliation crap.

[ExTexasRedhead]

Congress will soon be down to ZERO! Exactly where they should be for a bunch of anti-We The People bums.

[Vaduz]

The current lows come as the President is once again focusing attention on the health care legislation.
If things go tanking do more of it,Obama logic #1.

[Plumres]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 22% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President.
____________________________________________________

Ramussen is getting better. They only polled 22% STUPID people!

[hoosiermama]

Balls and Urns:
Iowahawk explains “margin of error”
Iowahawk | December 27, 2008 | David Burge
Posted on Monday, October 27, 2008 10:22:48 PM by xjcsa
[excerpting the end of the article; click below for the whole thing]
This is, for all intents and purposes, how political pollsters compute the ubiquitous “margin of error,” which has everything to do (and only to do) with pure mathematical sampling error. If you look at the formula above and round it just a smidge, you get a simple rule of thumb for margin of error:
Margin of Error = 1 / sqrt(n)
So if the sample size is 400, the margin of error is 1/20 = 5%; if the sample size is 625 the margin of error is 1/25 = 4%; if the sample size is 1000, it’s about 3%.
Works pretty well if you’re interested in hypothetical colored balls in hypothetical giant urns, or growth of plants in a controlled experiment, or defects in a batch of factory products. It may even work well if you’re interested in blind cola taste tests. But what if the thing you are studying doesn’t quite fit the balls & urns template?
* What if 40% of the balls have personally chosen to live in an urn that you legally can’t stick your hand into?
* What if 50% of the balls who live in the legal urn explicitly refuse to let you select them?
* What if the balls inside the urn are constantly interacting and talking and arguing with each other, and can decide to change their color on a whim?
* What if you have to rely on the balls to report their own color, and some unknown number are probably lying to you?
* What if you’ve been hired to count balls by a company who has endorsed blue as their favorite color?
* What if you have outsourced the urn-ball counting to part-time temp balls, most of whom happen to be blue?
* What if the balls inside the urn are listening to you counting out there, and it affects whether they want to be counted, and/or which color they want to be?
If one or more of the above statements are true, then the formula for margin of error simplifies to Margin of Error = Who the hell knows
Because, in this case, so-called scientific “sampling error” is meaningless, because it is utterly overwhelmed by non-sampling error. Under these circumstances “margin of error” is a numeric fiction masquerading as a pseudo-scientific fact, and if a poll reports it — even if collected “scientifically” — the pollster is guilty of aggravated bulls**t in the first degree.
The moral of this midterm for all would-be pollsters: if you are really interested in how many of us red and blue balls there are in this great big urn, sit back and relax until November, and let us show our true colors.
Until then, fondle your own balls.