Scenario 1: Nuclear Detonation – 10-kiloton Improvised Nuclear Device

Casualties: Hundreds of thousands Infrastructure Damage: Total within radius of 0.5 to 3 miles Evacuations/Displaced Persons: 100,000 in affected area seek shelter in safe areas (decontamination required for all before entering shelters)

1 million+ self-evacuate from major urban areas Contamination Various levels up to approximately 3,000 square miles Economic Impact Hundreds of billions of dollars Potential for Multiple Events No Recovery Timeline Years

Scenario Overview: General Description – In this scenario, terrorist members of the Universal Adversary (UA) group plan to assemble a gun-type nuclear device using highly enriched uranium (HEU) stolen from a nuclear facility in another country. The nuclear device components are smuggled into the United States, and the device is assembled near a major metropolitan center. Using a delivery van, terrorists plan to transport the device to the business district of a large city and detonate it.

Detailed Attack Scenario – Culminating a 10-year effort, terrorists of the UA group finally succeed in acquiring a sufficient quantity of HEU to construct a simple, gun-type, improvised nuclear device (IND). The UA has been slowly acquiring, at great expense, HEU from various sources outside of the United States. The latest theft of 5 kilograms (~ 11 pounds) will likely be discovered at the next quarterly inventory at the primary facility, but by then the bribed security official, the UA terrorists, and the HEU will be long gone.

The carefully shielded HEU is transported to a UA camp overseas where UA operates with impunity. In an underground bunker, a nuclear weapons engineer and two technicians transform it, along with the earlier acquisitions, into the components required for a gun-type nuclear device. Other acquisition efforts have yielded all the necessary electronics, hardware, and propellant for the device. In fact, UA has built two nearly complete device systems with enough HEU for one functioning device. As a final test of the components, the engineer has assembled the complete device to check the fit of the components. He then disassembles it and reassembles the device with the second set of components. He disassembles that device and carefully cleans all of the electronics, hardware, and HEU to remove any trace of chemical propellant contamination. He reports to the UA Central Command that the nuclear device is ready. Central Command has already decided on ground zero: the center of a U.S. city. National Planning Scenarios FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Version 20.2 DRAFT

The components of the device will be transported to the United States in eight different packages: two sets of hardware, two sets of electronics, two separate packages of propellant (enough for two nuclear devices), a neutron source, and the HEU. The propellant, neutron source, and the engineer will be smuggled across the border with different groups of illegal immigrants. The device electronics and hardware, falsely labeled as various items of electronic equipment, will be shipped as cargo to several small businesses operated by members of a UA sleeper cell. Agents from the sleeper cell collect the engineer and the device components and transport them to a UA safe house in a rural area. Finally, the HEU is encased in a 2-inch thick lead canister and smuggled into the United States, hidden in the rear of a sports utility vehicle (SUV) that is driven by a trusted member of UA. The driver is ostensibly returning from visiting relatives just across the U.S. border. After entering the United States, he also drives to the safe house where a senior member of the UA Central Command and two suicide bombers meet him.

By the time the HEU shortage is discovered and reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), all eight packages, as well as the engineer, are safely across U.S. borders. The IAEA reports the theft of 5 kilograms (~ 11 pounds) of HEU to governments worldwide. In the United States, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary – after consultations with the Secretary of Energy, the Attorney General, and the Homeland Security Advisor – directs the U.S. Coast Guard and Bureau of Customs and Border Protection to increase vigilance at the borders. State and local homeland security authorities are also informed of the potential threat.

The nuclear device is assembled at the safe house. A used delivery van is purchased and painted to indicate that it belongs to a copier service company. A coded e-mail notifies UA Central Command that all is ready. UA Central Command generates a return coded e-mail that sets the time and place of the attack. A dry run of the route is made during Monday morning traffic to ensure the timing of the attack.

At 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, the IND is loaded into the delivery van. The nuclear device is set with three ignition circuits: a manually activated detonator (disguised as a cell phone with power cord) to be carried by the passenger, a timer set to go off at 10:15 a.m., and a booby trap set to go off should anyone open the crate holding the IND. The crate is equipped with shielding materials to reduce the radiation signature. By 9:00 a.m., the vehicle enters the densely populated area, where the passenger arms the dead-man switch on the detonator. At about 9:30 a.m., the vehicle exits the freeway and when in place, the passenger detonates the 10-kiloton nuclear device. Most buildings within 1,000 meters (~ 3,200 feet) of the detonation are severely damaged. Injuries from flying debris (missiles) may occur out to 6 kilometers (~ 3.7 miles). An Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) damages many electronic devices within about 5 kilometers (~ 3 miles). A mushroom cloud rises above the city and begins to drift east-northeast...

The crater itself would remain hot for centuries. Debris that is sucked up into the fireball, then sprinkles downrange as fallout, will only be dangerous for several weeks or months with a 10KT device. Nevada nuclear tests were so close to Las Vegas that they became a tourist attraction, but the fallout radiation is long gone.

An airburst at several thousand feet would result in much more blast and heat damage but cause little to no fallout. The bad guys want fallout because it affects a wider area and potentially may result in many more deaths.

While this “smuggled component” scenario is frighteningly possible, I’m more concerned about a dedicated EMP attack. High altitude nuclear blasts over the Continental U.S. could cause an electromagnetic pulse that would fry our power grid and could, maybe, burn out our laptops, cell phones, and anything else that uses computer chips ... such as the computer in your car.

Iran has test-launched ballistic missiles from cargo ships (in the Caspian Sea, where our subs couldn’t see them) and has experimented with detonating missile warheads at the top of its flight path. Just one of these “Scud in a Bucket” attacks could, potentially, knock out the electric grid for most of the Eastern Seaboard. Three could blanket the Lower 48.

But we’re not sure. EMP was discovered during the Starfish Prime test in the Pacific in 1962, then open-air nuke testing was halted a few months later.

The death toll in America could reach nine figures from an EMP attack. Yeah, it’s THAT bad! One bright flash in the sky and we’re back to 1850.

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