Snap! Magnetic twisting and tightening beneath the sun's surface can launch a giant solar flare.
Credit: NOAA
Posted on 01/31/2010 3:19:06 PM PST by neverdem
Snap! Magnetic twisting and tightening beneath the sun's surface can launch a giant solar flare.
Credit: NOAA
Scientists have detected a consistent pattern in the sun's magnetic behavior that precedes solar flares. If the pattern can be unraveled completely, it could give hours or even days of warning to telecommunications companies, electric power grids, and satellite operators to prepare for these dangerous storms.
Solar flares threaten all of the artificial objects orbiting our planet, including GPS and telecommunications satellites, occupied spacecraft and the International Space Station. Every so often the sun emits a gigantic burst that includes highly energized x-rays, gamma rays, and charged particles. These surges can injure or even kill astronauts and fry electronic circuits. During such a burst, astronauts must rush to shielded compartments of their spacecraft, and technicians must scramble to place satellites in safe modes. Even on the ground, a large flare can overload power grids.
Because of the hazards and short lead times, for decades scientists have been trying to find reliable predictors of solar flares. Progress remained mostly stalled because of the seeming unpredictability of the events. Then in 2001 the Global Oscillation Network Group began operations. GONG comprises six ground-based observing sites that constantly monitor vibrations on the sun's surface for signs of activity deep within its interior.
A few years ago, some preliminary observations linked a solar flare to a large magnetic disturbance that seemed to have spiraled up from below the sun's surface. So a team of researchers examined data for 20 more big flares to determine if the same pattern preceded them. It did. The evidence showed a magnetic "twisting that started fast and slowly decreased to almost nothing as the flare occurred," says space scientist and lead author Alysha Reinard of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colorado.
The team suggests in an upcoming paper in The Astrophysical Journal that the spirals result from subsurface turbulence in the sun's superhot gases--the equivalent of what happens on Earth when turbulent winds whip up tornadoes and hurricanes.
Reinard says the team has studied data from 1023 magnetic spirals that occurred between 2001 and 2007. In about one-third of the cases, she says, the magnetic vortices preceded a flare--sometimes up to 3 days before it erupted. But for unknown reasons, in the remaining cases the twisting did not presage a flare. Despite that uncertainty, she says, "We are confident that this is the breakthrough we need to understand why flares erupt and to be able to predict them."
The findings should provide some "interesting food for thought" for NASA's new Solar Dynamics Observatory mission, says space scientist Scott McIntosh of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, also in Boulder. The mission, which is scheduled to launch in a few weeks, is designed, among other tasks, to study the possible causes of solar flares, so it could help refine the data linking the vortices to the flares. "Exciting times are ahead," McIntosh says.
Not sure if "hours" or even a couple "days" worth of warning would help, if every transformer in the country was about to get fried. Especially with the current Commander in Chief - he would probably do nothing, thinking he could blame any results on the 'Bogeyman' (i.e., President Bush). Good luck, after the power's down, for months or years.
Just roll the dice...
;>)
Seems reasonable to see rapidly twisting movements - These magnetic fields, according to plasma theories and their feedback inside the changing electrically-charged particles moving inside the magnetic storms, should feedback their changes in electric fields and currents, which affects the magnetic fields, which affects the electrical currents ....
Too bad we’re ending NASA’s space exploration so Hansen can get more money to study his novel (er, navel) intelligence into globull warming.
Big Power’s fault. Which is a code word for Big Oil.
Big Oil’s fault. Who supported Bush. Who Bush supported.
Is this why my internet is not working well? My dad does ham radio and he says the solar flares make a huge difference on his radio.
Solar ping!
;>)
The dude has virtually unlimited golf courses to play - no worries there.
and they went to great lengths NOT to mention any possibility of solar warming of the earth...
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