Governor McDonnell Declares State of Emergency in Advance of Potential Winter Storm [Virginia]

The storm that has hit us here in Oklahoma is apparently going to hit Virginia, too.

Here is a thread for Virginia FReepers to post updates for the weather regarding this storm which is about to hit the state of Virginia.

Some FReeper articles on the current Oklahoma Ice Storm -- and some other states. This is the storm that is moving over to the East, through Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, southern Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina...

Ice Storm Likely Across Oklahoma

Less Than 24 Hours Until Winter Storm Arrives In NE Oklahoma

Henry declares state of emergency in anticipation of storm [Oklahoma Governor]

Winter Storm Update [Tulsa, Oklahoma]

Tulsa activates Emergency Operations Center as winter storm intensifies [Oklahoma]

Many power lines remain down as Oklahoma deals with winter threats [OK Ice Storm]

Governor declares state of emergency in Arkansas as winter storm moves into the state

M-CC should expect up to 6 inches of snow Friday [Kentucky Snow Storm]

Snow and Ice in Clarksville, TN [Tennessee Ice/Snow Storm]

Missouri Travel Conditions at Midday [Missouri Ice/Snow Storm]

NWS issues winter storm warning for north Alabama [Alabama Ice/Snow Storm]

Governor McDonnell Declares State of Emergency in Advance of Potential Winter Storm [Virginia]

Sorry folks you’re on your own. Zero’s priority is the hatian freeloaders.

A refreshing change from SchoolBusNagin, who got himself out of town and left the bulk of New Orleans do-nothings sitting on their a**es waiting for gubmint help.

Okay, for all you Virginia FReepers, here’s your Winter Storm thread for this big winter storm that has been moving across the country. I’m in Oklahoma and started it there, and have set up various state threads for the respective FReepers.

Keep each other up-to-date for your weather conditions in your state... :-)

How are the conditions right now in Virginia? What’s the temperature where you’re at?

Just wondering if the leading edge of this winter storm has gotten to you yet... :-)

Is it getting colder, yet, there in Virginia?

I was just wondering because we’ve been hit hard in Oklahoma so far. I don’t know what it’s going to do to you Virginians.

I think there are approximately about 1/4 of a million Oklahomans without power (at least as of this morning, I think it was at that).

The last big ice storm we had in 2007 there was almost one million Oklahomans without power and some for up to and in excess of two weeks or so...

I’m in Illinois and the storm is passing just South of me. The temperature has dropped significantly, however.

Yeah, this seems to be a storm mainly for the “South”... :-)

I’m in Virginia Beach and they’re calling for 8=12 inches tonight and tomorrow. If we get a foot of snow here we’ll be snowed in for a week. We’re not equipped to handle that much snow!

7-15 inches of snow forecast

Governor declares state of emergency

Friday, January 29, 2010
By MICKEY POWELL - Bulletin Staff Writer

Forecasters expect Henry County and Martinsville will get 7 to 15 inches of snow during a winter storm this weekend, prompting Gov. Bob McDonnell on Thursday to declare a state of emergency across southern Virginia.

The declaration authorizes state agencies to help local governments handle the storm.

Among other things, the State Police and Department of Transportation are preparing to keep roadways clear and assist motorists and the National Guard has put 200 soldiers on standby.

Predictions of actual snowfall amounts vary, but the National Weather Service predicted between 7 inches and 10 inches for this area.

A private weather forecasting service that the Virginia Department of Transportation uses estimated 10 to 15 inches, said Lisa Price Hughes, residency administrator at VDOT’s local office in Bassett Forks.

Considering the fair skies and temperatures near 60 degrees on Thursday, it might be hard to believe that a snow storm is on its way.

However, the weather service placed the area under a winter storm warning from 7 p.m. today until 6 p.m. Saturday. Light snow is expected to begin this afternoon, then change to heavy snow tonight and Saturday morning before tapering off by Saturday night, a statement issued by the service said.

The storm is expected to basically be “a 24-hour event,” said meteorologist Anita Silverman at the weather service office in Blacksburg.

While it predicted up to 10 inches, the weather service said the exact track of the storm will determine how much snow actually falls.

“If the storm moves north or south by 20 to 30 miles, it will impact how much we get,” said Martinsville Public Works Director Leon Towarnicki.

The storm is advancing toward Virginia from the lower Mississippi Valley, information provided by the weather service shows.

Saturday, temperatures are forecast to reach a high of 25 degrees and fall to 15 degrees that night before rising to 33 degrees — one degree above freezing — on Sunday and dropping to 11 degrees that night.

Early next week, temperatures are expected to be in the 30s and 40s during the daytime but drop to the freezing point or lower at night, according to the forecast.

Home supply stores and supermarkets did a brisk business Thursday as customers prepared for the storm.

At Ace Heritage Hardware Home Center in Stanleytown as well as Lowe’s on Commonwealth Boulevard, customers were buying supplies such as ice melting substances, shovels, gloves, sleds, portable heaters and propane tanks, employees said.

Customers at Kroger on Greensboro Road were buying milk, bread and other “mainstays” of winter storms, said store manager Jerry Beane.

At Woody’s Supermarket in Ridgeway, many people were buying ingredients to make homemade soup to keep warm, said store manager Billy Wheeler.

All of the stores contacted reported their business being at least slightly more than normal for Thursdays.

That includes Taylor’s Supermarket on Northside Drive, where manager Mike Cart took a phone call but said he could not talk for long because he was running a checkout line.

Stores were not running out of supplies.

“This winter, we’ve tried to stay prepared” ahead of storms, said Mark Nolen, retail manager at Heritage Home Center.

Donnie Vaughn, sales manager at Lowe’s, made a similar comment.

Wheeler said he did not have to order more goods in expectations of a rush of customers — his suppliers anticipated the rush and automatically provided his store with more merchandise.

Store managers said customers had various reactions to the coming storm.

“Some say they’re dreading it. Some say ‘bring it on,’” Wheeler said.

Vaughn said many Lowe’s customers he talked with got their fill of wintry weather during the December storm that dumped as much as 14 inches of snow on some parts of the area.

“Most people don’t want” any more, he said.

Kroger customers seemed “a little bit apprehensive” about the storm, said Beane.

“They’re not sure it’s going to happen, but they’re getting ready just in case” it does, he said.

Chesterfield, Virginia here. (central va.)

Nothing yet!

A Major Winter Storm and an Arctic Outbreak, but Then...

Friday, 11:30 A.M.

It's the weekend, baby! I'm so thankful to have two days outside of the office, pretty much not working, though I'll have to keep a constant tab on the maps to track the storm and follow the wayward changes of the models.

Three things are a lock over the next week. One, the big storm dumping the big snow from parts of Oklahoma and southern Kansas to Virginia and North Carolina into tomorrow night. Two, the Big Chill across the eastern two-thirds of the country through the weekend. And three, the Big Warm-Up next week. Well, okay, it may not be a BIG warm-up, but the arctic chill will disappears from the northern Rockies and northern Plains by Wednesday, and from the Midwest and Great Lakes by Thursday. It will also moderate toward normal or beyond in much of the Northeast, while the chill simply eases across the southern tier of states. Bottom line, the next five days will clearly be colder than the following five.

With regard to the storm, not much else needs to be said. It's a Southern special, with all of the snow south of the Mason-Dixon Line in an east-west fashion all the way out to northern Missouri and northern Kansas. South of there, a gradual gradation of snow, with some of the big winners easily over a foot of snow, with some places likely to be over 20 inches. I haven't changed my thinking since yesterday on where those lollipops might be.

I will throw in a greater area for icing with the storm in a belt from the Red River Valley and southeastern Oklahoma all the way to central and southern North Carolina into parts of upstate South Carolina. Out in the Plains, it hasn't been the really cold arctic air mass that is centering itself on the Great Lakes and Northeast this afternoon, but cold enough in the low levels to drive temperatures below freezing, while there's still a wedge of warm air aloft.

The threat of flooding is ongoing from central Texas eastward throughout the Deep South, as most areas will pick up an inch or two of rain. There is still a risk of severe thunderstorms, albeit a low one, across the Gulf Coast this afternoon into tonight, and perhaps down the Florida Peninsula tomorrow.

With regard to the cold air, that's already in place, and it will drive temperature departures to 20 below normal this weekend into Monday, particularly in areas that get buried by snow in the next 36 hours. But even where it doesn't snow, it will be a solid 8 to 15 degrees below normal, and northern New England will get another surge of arctic air to open up next week.

As next week wears on, it won't get any colder. The question is how much will it warm? That's a fascinating question! As some of you have pointed out, some of the teleconnection indexes are really banging the cymbals for cold. For example, the Arctic Oscillation:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

Note that as it went into negative territory in December, we gradually went into the tank across the nation, with the core of the cold centered on the Plains. As the AO started to ascend, the cold eased heading into the second week of January. Now it's trending downward, and we have more cold, and a good snowstorm to boot.

The North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, isn't quite as convincing:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

Trending negative, but not in any extraordinary way. However, if you compare that version of the NAO to the NCEP and ESRL/PSD versions, you'll note it much more negative:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.pn.png

Taking a closer look at the PNA forecast by the same outfits, you'll note it largely positive, with the one exception coming during the middle of next week. Of course, that could well correspond to the next BIG storm likely to come across the country.

Again, the CPC version of the PNA forecast looks less compelling:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

Perhaps the biggest difference I find is the forecast for the EPO:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/compare.we.png

If the ESRL/PSD version is more accurate, I would think there's not much chance of a strong Pacific jet crashing onto the West Coast and flooding the country with warm air as we have seen at times in many recent winters!

But then you take a look at the GFS temperature ensembles:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSTDEP2_0z/tloop.html

What do you see? A flood of warmth! It originates in the northern Rockies and northern Plains during the middle of next week, but spreads out to the east and south late in the week and into next weekend, and it doesn't really retreat much going into the following week!

Huh?

It is a head-scratcher, to be simple. The strongly negative (and growing more so, if the modeling is to be believed) suggests the cold air is there to be delivered. The negative NAO would imply blocking, and the positive PNA would imply Western ridging and Eastern troughing, yet the cold allegedly just disappears into thin air!

To be fair, the Canadian NAEFS product has not been calling for much cold, either:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

I can't show you the latest European Weekly Climate Forecasts, but the first week of February would appear more in line with what you would expect, with not much warmth. In fact, its largest cold anomalies are over New England (probably owing to the early week arctic outbreak directly aimed at them), then over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley (probably a hangover effect from the snow cover laid down by the current storm), then the Southwest (maybe paying homage to the next storm?), and lastly over the northern Rockies and northern Plains, a complete contrast to what the GFS ensembles are portraying.

I'm not sure what to make of it, quite honestly. Again, I'm certain it won't be AS COLD as it will be today through Tuesday, but Wednesday through Sunday may not be as warm as the GFS ensembles would lead you to believe. This opens up another can of worms, too. Which idea is right? Another significant warming? While I'd welcome it with open arms, I'm very hesitant to jump on the bandwagon, as my eyes are suggesting something not quite so warm.

Perhaps what the models are having trouble handling is a redeveloping split in the jet stream. My guess is the various models are interpreting this split in different ways. The GFS and perhaps the Canadian to a lesser extent may be pushing the northern branch farther north that the European, and therefore keeping the arctic highs at high latitudes and not allowing the deep chill to come very far south, while at the same time the very active southern branch keeps the storm train rolling across the southern half of the country to promote the cooler, wetter pattern.

Indeed, if you examine the Week 2, 3, and 4 European Weeklies, it looks like massive blocking ensues through the entire month of February. The maps are painted blood red across Canada, with warm anomalies across the northern tier of the U.S., and low heights and below-normal temperatures throughout the southern tier of states. And I bet it would be quite wet, too!

This reeks of a very stormy period. Maybe the severe cold is gone after the early part of next week, and it doesn't get as cold again for the rest of the winter season. I'm not ready to marry myself to that statement. But I have to believe the remainder of winter will hardly be a bore for those of us who are really into weather forecasting! The bust potential is high, but so are the rewards in a high risk pattern.

Let's see. 15 degrees and partly sunny with a wind chill of 1. Bare ground, nary a flake to be seen this weekend. Yeah, what's not to love about that?

Hopefully VDOT can deploy some of the NOVA trucks and plows down to points south because they are saying we will only get 2-4 inches up here.

I'm not sure they do that because you never know when the storm track is going to change.

Major winter storm unfolding across the south

January 29, 8:58 AM
Raleigh Weather Examiner
Allan Huffman

“Major winter storm unfolding in the southern US”

Our major southeast winter storm is currently pounding the southern plains with snow and ice yesterday in Texas and Oklahoma, and moving into southern Missouri and Arkansas today. This may be remembered as an I-40 winter storm as the precip expands east and seems to focus along I-40 the next 48 hours.

Cold and dry air is moving into North Carolina this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s and dewpoints in the teens. This air mass is setting the stage for our winter storm and will continue to be advected in by a building surface high in the Great Lakes that will ridge into the northeast US the next few days.

Ok, so down to the storm. I have updated my map below with the latest forecast. I will issue updates to the map if I see a need to make a change to the zones.

Zone A: I think a band of 12-18 inches of snow could fall across the extreme northern North Carolina piedmont as well as the southern Virginia border counties. This area should see mostly all snow although I can not rule out a little sleet in the eastern sections of this zone.

Zone B: This area will see a substantial snow with as much as 6-10 inches likely. Most areas will likely see all snow from this in this zone. If there is any last minute trend north, this area could see closer to a foot or more, if there is a last second trend south some areas in this zone will only see light accumulations.

Zone C: This zone which includes most of the I-40 corridor in North Carolina from Hickory to Raleigh as well as the northeast piedmont will likely see a snow/sleet mix with more snow than sleet. We will see a substantial period of all snow to start which could accumulate to 6-8 inches. Then by Saturday morning sleet could mix in and limit further big snow accumulations, a change back to snow with light snow accumulations is likely Saturday afternoon and evening. IF, we see less sleet mix in, this area could easily see 12-15 inches of snow. For now though, I think we do see some sleet mix in and thus this area will see 8-12 inches of total snow and sleet accumulation.

Zone D: To keep continuity I kept the major ice area zone D. I have shifted this a little south though, south of the Charlotte area. This region from the North Carolina sandhills into the southeast piedmont and much of upstate South Carolina and extreme NE Georgia could see a severe ice storm. I think at least 0.5 inch of ice accrual will occur with as much as 1 inch of ice accrual possible. This will be a severe event and you should be ready to lose trees and power. The western part of this zone could see the precip begin as rain and snow and change to snow with some light accumulations before a change to freezing rain.

Zone E: This zone lies between the severe ice storm and the zone that will see mostly snow and only some sleet. I think this zone sees a healthy mix of snow and sleet especially from the southern foothills east, that will accumulate to 4-8 inches. The southern mountains could see more snow than sleet and could end up higher than 8 inches, but for now this seems like a good call.

Zone F: This zone will see significant ice, but not as much as zone D. Many areas will likely start as rain and transition to ice. I could see 0.25-0.5 inch ice accrual of freezing rain in this zone. Areas south of this zone could see some marginal freezing rain but not as much as this area.

Zone G: This zone will likely see rain change to snow or sleet Saturday. For now I will keep accumulations light at 1-2 inches, but this will be an area to monitor to see when the changeover occurs.

Zone H: This is a tricky area, and I don’t pretend to know southeast Tennessee climo well. It looks like a mess that could go either way, some runs have shown a heavy wet snow and other mostly rain. I think a mixed bag will fall here with some snow accumulation likely.

I also want to mention that the models are showing the possibility for thunder Saturday morning into early afternoon in northern North Carolina and southern Virginia. So don’t be surprised if you hear thunder tomorrow morning in those areas.

Very cold weather will follow this storm the snow cover causing very cold overnight lows and reducing the warming potential during the day. For now the models look paltry for any precipitation Tuesday/Wednesday but if some does come we may have to worry about at least some freezing rain. For now I leave that mention out.

Not supposed to snow until sometime after midnight.

It’s 28 degrees right now and falling.

Virginia Beach here (apartment is 1 mile from the ocean) at 8:50pm EST, no snow falling yet., about 28 degrees.

Cold and dry in northern virginia friday night. no snow. local weather focasters are calling for 1-3 inches tomorrow afternoon. and a melt on sunday monday.

what part of the state are you in?

I am in Chesterfield.
Just south of Richmond.