Ice Storm Likely Across Oklahoma

KOCO Oklahoma City Channel 5 ^ | Tuesday, January 26, 2010 | KOCO Channel 5 Staff

[Star Traveler]

Ice Storm Likely Across Oklahoma

Travel Problems, Power Outages Likely

POSTED: 11:17 am CST January 26, 2010
UPDATED: 3:48 pm CST January 26, 2010

OKLAHOMA CITY -- A winter storm watch is in effect from late Wednesday night through Friday morning across most of Oklahoma.

Freezing rain, sleet and snow are all possible with significant accumulation. Travel problems and power outages are likely.

Tuesday night is expected to become partly cloudy and cold with lows falling into the upper 20s and the 30s.

Skies will become cloudy Wednesday with scattered showers developing during the evening following afternoon highs reaching the 50s statewide.

Freezing rain is to develop first in the northwest on Thursday, turning to sleet and later snow during the day. Afternoon highs will range from the mid-20s in the northwest to the lower 50s in the southeastern corner of the state, followed by overnight lows from the lower 20s in the northwest to the lower 40s in the southeast.

Between now and Thursday, Eyewitness News 5 will work to gather information to help keep you safe and to help you prepare for the impending storm. At 5 and 6 p.m. Tuesday, here are some winter-storm topics we will cover:

• Oklahoma Gas & Electric's plan to deal with ice and power outages
  
• What Oklahoma City and Oklahoma Department of Transportation crews are doing to prepare for ice and snow
  
• What Gov. Brad Henry is doing to make sure the state is ready
  
• The planning at Oklahoma's Emergency Management Department
  
• How food banks, shelters and the Red Cross are getting ready
  
• If people are finding what they need to stock up for the storm
  
• How to make sure generators are safe when customers are without power
  
• How this storm could compare to the devastating 2007 ice storm

[Star Traveler]

I heard from some other people (who have been listening to the weather news) that this is supposed to be a worse ice storm than the one that Oklahoma had two years ago (which was billed as the worst in Oklahoma history, at that time)... I guess we'll see...

[Star Traveler]

They are talking about ice accumulations of anywhere from 1/4 of an inch to one inch at the maximum. And then, the last I saw, it was anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of snow.

That’s what is supposed to be coming “down the pike” about two days or so from now.

And the “word is out on the street” — that’s it’s supposed to be worse than the worse ice storm in Oklahoma history, from two years ago... (but that is ‘on the street” type of talk, so I don’t know...).

We’ll see how the weathermen shape this one up in the coming two days...

[Cold Heart]

Just saw the special on TV about the Montreal, Canada ice storm. Take preparations. Good luck all.

[aragorn]

I was listening to KOTV (Tulsa) weather report last night. One comment made was that one of the models called for accumulations (of snow) up to three feet! Of course, the meteorologist said he didn't put a lot of stock in that prediction...

I can do without the ice though. The storm we had two years ago took out a huge, old oak tree in the back yard. It just missed the house and the power lines when it fell, and how it did so I'll never know.

[optiguy]

David Paine of KFOR 4 (Okc) said some models predict one inch of ice with 18-20 inches of snow. Looks like I’ll be freeping alot at home.

[mentor2k]

I read a report this morning that the City of Tulsa, stuggling with budget issues is unlikely in being able to address the road hazards with depleted crews and sand/salt material.

Better plan to pack it in with fire wood and/or a generator.

[NormsRevenge]

Not good news, ouch.

radar looks tame now but folks best get ready for a chilly one.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=TLX

—

Winter Storm Watch

Oklahoma

http://www.wunderground.com/US/OK/025.html

Statement as of 1:32 PM CST on January 26, 2010

... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Thursday morning
through late Thursday night...

* a strong winter storm will take aim on the Southern Plains
Thursday into Friday. Cold air currently in place over western
Canada will move over the region late Wednesday behind a strong
cold front. A strong storm system will then approach from the
west early Thursday causing a variety of winter weather.

* Timing: the most likely time for hazardous winter weather will
be from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning.

* Main impacts: freezing rain will begin to accumulate on power
lines and elevated surfaces during the day Thursday. The most
likely area for significant ice accumulation is south or
Stillwater... El Reno... Hobart... Altus... and Quanah. In
particular... areas south of Seminole... Pauls
Valley... Walters... and Seymour may see 1/4 to 3/4 inch of ice
accumulation. Sleet and snow will also occur. Farther north... greater
sleet and snow accumulation will occur from west central to
north central Oklahoma where 6 to 12 inches of snow is expected.

* Other impacts: gusty north and northeast winds of 25 to 30 mph
will add additional stress to power lines that may have ice
accumulations. Blowing and drifting of snow will also be
possible.

* Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel and
Commerce. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

[Yorlik803]

An inch of ice and 18 inches of snow. That sucks. I hope you all weather this crapstorm ok.
How does one keep their sanity being cooped up in the house?

[ImJustAnotherOkie]

Damn Global Warming

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

I was listening to KOTV (Tulsa) weather report last night. One comment made was that one of the models called for accumulations (of snow) up to three feet! Of course, the meteorologist said he didn't put a lot of stock in that prediction...

Hoo-boy! Three feet, huh? :-) I don't know about that either...

[MizSterious]

The latest I’m hearing makes me think it could be. Of course, it could all change and it could bypass us altogether. Oklahoma weather is quirky that way.

Meanwhile, we’re getting the generator ready, and laying in extra supplies. We’re out in the boonies, and usually the last ones to get the roads and power fixed. (They rightly concentrate on more populated areas.)

[Star Traveler]

You were saying ...

I read a report this morning that the City of Tulsa, stuggling with budget issues is unlikely in being able to address the road hazards with depleted crews and sand/salt material.

Dang it! I wish I had brought my cross-country skis from Oregon... :-)

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

*** this is supposed to be a worse ice storm than the one that Oklahoma had two years ago (which was billed as the worst in Oklahoma history, at that time)... I guess we’ll see..***.

I remember that storm! It was brutal for Oklahoma. It petered out just barely into Arkansas. Last January’s ice storm which hit both Oklahoma and Arkansas was worse!

Gearing up for another one now!

[Star Traveler]

You just can’t tell about these things ahead of time, but it is a very good idea to be ready... :-)

[Star Traveler]

Joe Lundberg's Weather Blog

Tuesday, January 26, 2010 11:40 AM

The Wayward Track of the Next Storm

The next storm... that's all anyone wants to talk about today! I'll bet if I were to get together with my cycling group today, or with the church choir, I would be bombarded with questions on it! And why? For several reasons, actually! One, there will be a storm! Two, it will dump snow on its north side! 3) Most people are interested in snow, whether they love it or hate it! 4) Many public forecasts are now talking about it, and some are even hyping it!

The Factors

There are several of them, actually. One is clearly the storm that will bring some rain into central and Southern California this afternoon and tonight. Another is the disturbance ahead of it that is bringing some rain and mountain snows through Oregon and southern Washington into Idaho now. A third will be the upper-level ridge migrating to the northwest Caribbean over the next 48 hours. A fourth is the strong upper-level low over northern Hudson Bay that will be rolling southward in the next 48 hours, then rolling east or east-southeastward thereafter.

You could throw in a couple of other things, such as the arctic air that will come in behind the disturbance now coming through the Northwest, and perhaps the large high that will build into the northern Plains and Midwest by Friday will play some minor role in what happens late in the week and the start of the weekend as well.

In watching the models twist and turn in the wind over the past couple of days, I still think there's plenty of wiggle room for how this will play out. I stated in yesterday's post that my concern would be for the model 'correction', if you will, would be more to the left. One of the reasons for that statement was the presence of that upper-level ridge in the northwest Caribbean, more or less forcing the storm forming in Texas Thursday to go around it to some degree.

I still believe that is a very viable option, but I also think another trend may be developing that may put the brakes on that idea. This trend is for a slower storm coming out of the Southwest and through the southern Plains. In short, a slower storm, in my opinion, would be more likely to take a southern track.

Why? The massive upper-level vortex rolling into Ontario Thursday then across Quebec into northern New England Friday. That pushes the confluence zone between the two branches of the stream down into Virginia. The air mass north of the confluence zone will be very cold and extremely dry on Friday. Most storms will tend to develop and track in such a way that they maintain a connection to their life blood, which is often the warm, moist air over the Gulf of Mexico.

On the other hand, the storms will also move along boundaries, and where will the true front be that separates the arctic air and the much milder air to the south of it? My hunch is that by Friday, that boundary will stretch from central Texas to southern Virginia or even into northern North Carolina. The farther north that boundary ends up, the farther north the storm almost has to go. The farther south, then vice versa.

At this stage, with still a fair degree of uncertainty, I am confident of a few things:

1) There WILL be a storm!

2) California won't be affected nearly as adversely with rain, flooding and mountain snow as with the storm the second half of last week.

3) The snow in the central and southern Rockies, will, on average, not be as prolific as last week.

4) Heavy snow is a lock north of the track of the storm. We're talking 1-2 feet in a fairly narrow band, but crippling nonetheless.

5) Severe thunderstorms are almost as certain. Just a classic winter storm with warm, moist air lying in wait to its south. The early season severe weather events are almost always from the western Gulf Coast eastward across the Deep South, and this should mirror those kinds of events.

6) Heavy rain and flooding are pretty likely, too. Much of the area from central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley is at the greatest risk of flooding, with a lower concern farther east into the Southeast.

7) North side of the storm will not just be snowy, but a very cold snow at that. The arctic air will drill right to the storm center as it approaches, so I would think that in the heart and especially just north of the heavy snow band, it is going to be a good 20 degrees below normal.

Given what I'm seeing with the new 12z runs, the trend of the European and other models, and ensemble temperature forecasts, I'd have to lean now toward this being a big snowstorm for more southern locations than north. That would include places like Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Nashville, Asheville and Roanoke.

All that being said, I would not at all dismiss this option of the storm coming farther north at the last minute, and none of the models seeing it until it was too late. I'd lean more in that direction if I saw that surface high over New England Friday night, rather than over Minnesota. There's a fairly small window that will be open for this thing to be moving along at just the right speed to try and phase with any northern branch feature rolling along the backside of the upper-level vortex. And as they say, timing is everything.

[PhiKapMom]

That’s the weather report I have as well. I have almost quit listening to the local weather reporters and their ‘sky is falling’ except when the sky really did fall before Christmas with the blizzard.

Don’t know what models they use, but it doesn’t look to be the ones from the National Storms Prediction Center here in Norman.

[Star Traveler]

New California Storm Likely to Make East Icy by Week’s End

January 26, 2010, 09:53 AM EST
By Charlotte Porter

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- A double-barreled storm heading to California today will spread snow and ice across the southern Plains, dumping as much as a foot of snow on parts of New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma, before blasting the mid-Atlantic region by week’s end.

[ ... ]

By the time it reaches the Plains, as soon as tomorrow night, the storm will be “a significant snow and ice event,” and “substantial snow” Jan. 29 and 30 may snarl travel from Washington to Atlantic City, New Jersey, meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said on the forecaster’s Web site.

[ ... ]

The storm will push into Arizona with rain, which will change to ice and then snow over eastern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles on Jan. 28 and 29, Pydynowski said. Arctic air dropping down from Canada is forecast to spread snow from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Washington, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, she said.

[ ... ]

[optiguy]

I’m not sure.

[Star Traveler]

Here's some information from the Norman, Oklahoma center...

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
132 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271930-
/O.CON.KOUN.WS.A.0001.100128T1200Z-100129T1200Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...
HOLDENVILLE...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...
LAWTON...DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...COALGATE...
WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMORE...TISHOMINGO...ATOKA...MARIETTA...
MADILL...DURANT...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...CROWELL...VERNON...
WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...KNOX CITY...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
132 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
  THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER WESTERN
  CANADA WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A STRONG
  COLD FRONT. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
  WEST EARLY THURSDAY CAUSING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER.

* TIMING: THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL
  BE FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACTS: FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON POWER
  LINES AND ELEVATED SURFACES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE MOST
  LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION IS SOUTH OR
  STILLWATER...EL RENO...HOBART...ALTUS...AND QUANAH. IN
  PARTICULAR...AREAS SOUTH OF SEMINOLE...PAULS
  VALLEY...WALTERS...AND SEYMOUR MAY SEE 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF ICE
  ACCUMULATION. SLEET AND SNOW WILL ALSO OCCUR. FARTHER NORTH...GREATER
  SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
  NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.


* OTHER IMPACTS: GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
  WILL ADD ADDITIONAL STRESS TO POWER LINES THAT MAY HAVE ICE
  ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL AND
COMMERCE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271000-
/O.CON.KTSA.WS.A.0001.100128T1200Z-100129T1800Z/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-
ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
419 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
 * IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
   WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA...
   PUSHMATAHA...CHOCTAW...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG...NOWATA...
   PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...MUSKOGEE...LE FLORE...LATIMER
   AND HASKELL. IN ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...MADISON...CRAWFORD...
   BENTON... SEBASTIAN...CARROLL AND FRANKLIN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
 * RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
   SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY
   MORNING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
   THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

 * 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED TO
   THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12
   INCHES POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
   ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
   THE HEAVY SLEET AND SNOW AREA...WITH THE HEAVIEST ICE
   ACCUMULATIONS NEAR A LINE FROM OKEMAH TO FAYETTEVILLE.

 IMPACTS...
 * SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES IS
   LIKELY...WHICH WOULD CAUSE POWER OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR
   SEVERAL DAYS.

 * ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND
   HAZARDOUS IN THE WATCH AREA...MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 * CONSIDER CHANGING TRAVEL PLANS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE
   SUPPLY OF FOOD...WATER AND THE NECESSARY MEDICATION TO LAST
   THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WINTER STORM.

 * STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
   TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
   EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
   WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$

[Star Traveler]

North Texas in for full gamut of weather

Times Record News
Posted January 26, 2010 at 4:39 p.m.

A graphical forecast released by the National Weather Service late Tuesday shows the northwestern portion of Wichita County could get 1/4 - inch coating of ice followed by 2 to 6 inches of snow.

The southwestern portion of the county was forecast to receive 1/4 to 3/4 - inch of ice followed by an inch of sleet and snow.

Portions of Jackson County, Okla., home of Altus, could get 12 inches of snow. The weather service will continue revising the forecast.

The Christmas Eve 2009 forecast was revised to include a blizzard warning just hours before the historic storm struck.

The coming weather event is forecast to begin with rain Wednesday night with possible thunderstorms after midnight.

The precipitation is expected to change to freezing, rain, sleet and snow through the day on Thursday. Winds could gust to 32 mph as the temperature Thursday night drops to 23 degrees.