Posted on 01/24/2010 7:51:07 PM PST by Lorianne
If Republicans want to build on Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts' Senate race in historically blue California this fall, they'll have to overcome the state GOP's inability to win over ethnic voters, or hope those voters stay home.
That's the implication of findings from a new Field Poll of California voters released this week in collaboration with New America Media. The poll, which was conducted in six languages across California's white, black, Hispanic, Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese communities, found that while incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown hold modest leads or trail potential Republican opponents among white voters, they more than make up for that with double-digit margins among non-whites.
"The main reason why California has become such a blue state is it's changing demography," said Mark DiCamillo, the Field Poll's Director. "Every election there are larger numbers of ethnic voters, and they tend to vote Democratic, while white voters remain undecided."
In the latest Field Poll, Republican challenger Tom Campbell beats incumbent Democratic Sen. Boxer 46 percent to 43 percent among whites, but trails by 10 points overall thanks to Boxer's 74 point advantage among blacks and 36 point advantage among Latinos. Boxer also leads Campbell by 28 percent among Chinese voters, 10 percent among Korean voters and 19 percent among Vietnamese voters, although high numbers of undecideds among the Asian electorate make those results less conclusive.
The Field Poll's results are similar in the governor's race, where Democratic Attorney General Jerry Brown leads Republican businesswoman Meg Whitman by 10 points overall despite a slim, one-point advantage among whites.
Jerry Brown leads Whitman by 69 points among blacks and 23 points among Latinos, however. He also enjoys a 20-point advantage among Chinese voters, a 6 percent advantage among Koreans voters, and an 18 percent lead among Vietnamese voters, though about half of Asian voters say they are still undecided.
DiCamillo says the results show that the California Republican Party has yet to repair its reputation among ethnic voters 16 years after the passage of Republican-backed Proposition 187, which barred undocumented immigrants from benefiting from many state services. Prop. 187 provoked a backlash that included a tidal wave of Democratic voter registration among Latinos and other immigrant communities.
As a result, DiCamillo says, any GOP victory in the Golden State, "requires a campaign that attempts to target those ethnic voters."
But that "hasn't been done successfully since [Prop.] 187," he said, though "it's still possible."
But some in the GOP say their party has other options, ones that do not depend on winning large numbers of votes from non-whites: they can get them to stay home.
Republican strategist Dan Schnur, who used Proposition 187 to ensure the re-election of Republican Gov. Pete Wilson in 1994, pointed to recent Republican victories in the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, which show if ethnic voter turnout is depressed the GOP win.
"The big challenge with Democrats with minority voters is not necessarily in winning their support but in getting them to turn out in high numbers," said Schnur, who now directs the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California.
If ethnic voters do not feel having Democrats in the White House and Congress are helping them, Schnur says, then those voters may simply stay home.
And so, it seems that for Republicans to win in California this November they will have to find a way to get voters like Sergio Moreno to stay home. Moreno, a groundskeeper for a rural school district outside Fresno, told New America Media he plans on voting for both Boxer and Jerry Brown even though "everything's going bad, and there's nothing to believe in any more."
"It doesn't matter if they're Democrats or Republicans -- as soon as they get up there, they do the opposite," he said. "Boxer's been there a long time. I guess she's getting comfortable."
Then why continue voting for her? "I just want the Democrats so they can make it better," he said. "I'm just trying to believe that it's going to get better."
Moreno says he'll definitely show up at the polls this November. "I'll go vote," he said. "I'm always there."
I’ve thought for some time that this is what it’s coming to. A handful of white liberals and minorities vs. Anglos. The left loves to tell us how “diverse” they are but the reality is, their politics has driven whites out of their party and into the Republican or independent columns.
And that’s the ONLY reason they’re “for” immgration and amnesty. They could care less otherwise.
Old news.
I just finished re-registering as an “Independent” (Declined to state a party preference). I noticed on the CA form that If you do not have a driver’s license, you may use the last four of your SSN. If you do not have a SSN then you may send in a copy of your telephone bill or electric or gas utility bill.
Given our rate of demographic change, it can’t be but a few more election cycles and the republicans will be shut out.
Well, here in L.A. it’s a segregated city, no matter how much spin the MSM tells you. The lone reason why white libs are here in L.A. vote Dem is because they themselves are the biggest racists. They vote Dem because they self-hypnotize themselves that they are “diverse’ yet live in lily-white secluded communities. Their hypocrisy amuses me when I ask my Dem friends how many non-white friends they have in their circle and they still cannot answer me..
By the same token, Republicans are said to have a problem with women. But you never hear that Democrats have a problem with men.
That said, I can understand the appeal Democrats have to blacks. So many of them feel themselves wards of the state and Democrats promise a paternal state.
But Latinos are basically conservative, work hard and don't need anybody to take care of them. I exclude the illegals.
And Asians have the same hopes and dreams conservatives do...and work even harder to get there than we do.
If so than California is a goner for sure. No turning around. However let’s see what the next election brings.
ethnic=illegal aliens!!!
” If you do not have a SSN then you may send in a copy of your telephone bill or electric or gas utility bill.”
You can register without ever having to see a human and then you can vote absentee without ever seeing a human.
Illegal, no problem!!!!
Conservatism is a movement, an ideology. It would do well to start proselytizing the same way that evangelical Christians outreach to these communities. We should take a page from experience. Their numbers will continue to grow and we need to compete there rather than sulk and abandon hope that they can be moved to our side. People come here for opportunity, the left only offers a future of being merely workers for generations to come.
Don't fret people...this is not a real poll.
It is a joke of a poll that consistently overpolls Democrats by 15 points.
I don't know how they maintain credibility. No...I do know how...because they provide polls that provide results that correspond to the opinions of MSM editors.
I must have been out to lunch when the definition of “ethnic voter” was promulgated. What are the defining characteristics or features of these people?
“Given our rate of demographic change, it can’t be but a few more election cycles and the republicans will be shut out.”
It makes no sense to me why Asians in particular would buy into the nonsense swewed from the liberal machine.
*shrugs*
They are usually way off.
These leftist pollsters showed Prop 8 losing !!!!
You naliled it.
Filed POll = DNC operation
Someone put in a dollar and pushed the deluxe spin cycle. Votes have more to do with government or union workers vs entrepreneurs...
News flash, if you include the half of latinos who consider themselves white, whites still make up over 80% of the population.
Yep,
Within an election or two, there will be a similar article titled "Field Poll: Ethnic Voters May Save Texas Democrats"
2010 and 2012 will be just speed bumps to the inevitable
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