Brown seen as gaining on Coakley in race for Kennedy Senate seat

Wapo ^ | 01/11/09 | Chris Cillizza

[freespirited]

Massachusetts isn't the likeliest backdrop for Republicans to begin their long climb back to a Senate majority. Democrats control both of the state's U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, all 10 House seats and wide majorities in the state legislature.

And yet, the buzz in political circles over the past week is that state Sen. Scott Brown is rapidly making up ground on state Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Jan. 19 special election to succeed the late Edward M. Kennedy -- movement that has Democrats scrambling to ensure they keep what should be a sure thing in their column.

GOP excitement was fueled in recent days by the latest polls in the race. Two automated polls -- a controversial methodology -- showed the contest within single digits, and a Boston Globe poll released Sunday showed Coakley and Brown tied among those "extremely interested" in the race. Although Coakley carries a sizable 15-point advantage in the Globe poll, and leads on most issues, special elections are low-turnout affairs and are notoriously difficult to poll accurately, allowing both sides to spin the numbers.

Sensing opportunity, national Republicans are beginning to mobilize. The American Future Fund, an independent conservative group, is spending more than $400,000 on ads slamming Coakley on taxes, and sources familiar with the organization say there's more where that came from. ..

There was no consensus why the contest had tightened in recent days, although two factors were commonly cited: the national issue landscape and Coakley's less-than-inspiring general-election campaign.

"People are angry -- way too many are out of work, everyone is scared about the economy, [and] they don't want their taxes to go up," explained one longtime Massachusetts Democrat. "It's not surprising that the out-of-power party could gain some momentum, even in Massachusetts."

[freespirited]

Two automated polls -- a controversial methodology -- showed the contest within single digits, and a Boston Globe poll released Sunday showed Coakley and Brown tied among those "extremely interested" in the race.

I think there is much to be said for automated polls. I believe it's entirely possible that in a leftist paradise like MA, people are reluctant to tell a human that they intend to vote for the Republican.

We'll know soon enough whether the Globe's poll was any good.

[BAW]

Oh I hope so, please please please please . . . .

[HerrBlucher]

I have mixed feelings. On the one hand it would be fantastic for Brown to take the Swimmer’s old senate seat and defeat Obamacare. On the other hand I dread the hangovers from all the partying I would do in celebration. Its a tough call.

[bigbob]

Maybe, although Rasmussen showed her ahead by 9 on 1/5. But then, this is a special election and voters behave differently.

[Ronin]

When do the SEIU and ACORN buses start rolling in?

Or have they started already?

Will the New Black Panthers send some more voluntary poll watchers?

[OrangeHoof]

That this is being reported in the Globe and the WaPo makes me wonder if we aren’t being set up. I wonder if this isn’t really just a GOTV ploy by the libs in order to get more Democrats to go to the polls rather than just assume Coakley will win.

If the libs were *really* worried that Coakley would lose, I think they’d bury this poll and run so many hit pieces on Brown it would make your head spin.

The other objective may be that if/when Brown loses, they can then dispirit conservatives further by saying “See? People really do want health care. People really do want sleazy Democrats rather than you guys. You were so stupid to think otherwise. All you Tea Party folks are all noise and no power.”

[goldstategop]

This is a state that put GOP governors in office until 2006. Whether voters want to be taxed now for health care benefits that don't start until 2014 remains to be seen.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[Nateman]

Imagine the TERROR a Republican victory in that highly RAT infested state causes the RATS! It puts the brakes on the Obamanation if we win! Here is how to help: if you don't live in Massachusetts, volunteer for the phone bank. (While you are calling keep track so we can get a poll to see how much the RATS have stolen afterwards). Speaking of stolen, if you live in Massachusetts, or find a committed Brown voter, get them to become an election judge. In Boston they pay 135-185$ and I bet heavy RAT districts have not had a Republican monitor in years and routinely stuff the ballot box.

[Vermont Lt]

For those of you out there wondering if we can really do this, you can. The population is pissed off and some really see this as an opportunity to slam Scott home.

What can you do? Make sure that you keep this top of mind in all of the forums where you lurk. We need to make sure that every Independent and Republican gets to the polls next week.

Send Scott some money. It doesnt have to be a lot. Just do it. He is up against a $15 million dollar war chest for Coakley.

Finally, pray for a frakin’ Blizzard on Tuesday. Turn out is going to win this. The fact that this is the day after a three day weekend is going to help us. Folks are going to be distracted. Bad weather is a win for Scott.

[HamiltonJay]

The hangover for this guy in my mind is, while he’ll break the supermajority in the Senate which is good, and certainly more conservative that Kennedy ever was... he’s also has stands that can (and likely will) come back to bite conservatives later.

[HerrBlucher]

Maybe, but stopping Obamacare is what we need to do NOW, and the joy of putting a pubbie in the Swimmer’s senate seat is something we can enjoy NOW. We can deal with any RINOism later.