Posted on 01/08/2010 10:02:03 AM PST by dangus
Purely on a red-state/blue-state basis, the Republicans should be expected to lose several seats, but instead should pick up several. They'll have a much easier go of it in subsequent elections, since 2006 and 2008 saw outrageous liberal victories in red states. Republicans currently have 5 of the 16 Senate seats which look to be competitive in 2010. They need all 16 to take over the Senate (or 15, if Sen. Joe Lierberman of Connecticut or any Democrat refuses to vote for the Democrat candidate for majority leader.)
Polling data and predictions for each of these 16 seats are listed below, in order of likelihood to go Republican:
1. North Dakota:
John Hoeven 58, Byron Dorgan 36 (Rasmussen Reports)
Dorgan has since dropped out of the race.
2. Florida:
Charlie Crist 42, Kendrick Meek 36 (RR, 12-28)
Marco Rubio 49, Meek 35 (RR)
3. Arkansas:
Gilbert Baker 51, Blanche Lincoln 39 (RR, 1-7)
Kim Hendren 47, Lincoln 39 (RR)
Curtis Colman 48, Lincoln 38 (RR)
4. Kansas:
Likely Republican hold, but matchups are untested.
5. Kentucky:
Trey Grayson 45, Jack Conway 35 (RR,1-6)
Grayson 44, Daniel Mongiardo 37 (RR)
Rand Paul 46, Conway 38 (RR)
Paul 49, Mongiardo 35 (RR)
Lean Republican
6. New Hampshire:
Ovide Lamontagne 37, Paul Hodes 31 (ARG, 12-29)
Kelly Ayotte 43, Paul Hodes 36 (ARG)
7. Nevada:
Sue Lowden 51, Harry Reid 41 (Mason Dixon, Dec.)
Lowden 49, Reid 43 (RR, 12-9)
Danny Tarkanian 49, Reid 43 (RR)
Sharon Angle 47, Reid 43 (RR)
8. Colorado:
Jane Norton 46, Michael Bennet 37 (RR, 12-8)
Tom Wiens 42, Bennet 31 (RR)
Ken Buck 42, Bennet 38 (RR)
Norton 45, Andrew Romanoff 34 (RR)
9. Ohio:
Rob Portman 40, Jennifer Brunner 33 (RR, 12-7)
Portman 38, Lee Fisher 36 (RR)
Tossup
10. Pennsylvania:
Pat Toomey 44, Arlen Specter 44 (Quinnipiac, 12-8)
Toomey 46, Specter 42 (RR, 12-8)
Toomey 40, Joe Sestak 35 (Q)
Toomey 44, Sestak 38 (RR)
11. Delaware:
Mike Castle 45, Beau Biden 39 (Public Policy Polling, 12-15)
Christine O'Donnell 40, Biden 49 (PPP)
12. Missouri:
Roy Blunt 44, Robin Carnahan (RR, 12-21)
13. Illinois:
Mark Kirk 39, Alexi Giannoulias 42 (RR, 12-9)
Kirk 42, Cheryle Jackson 39 (RR)
Lean Democrat
14. Massachusetts (Special election, this month): RR poll gave Martha Coakley (D) a 9-point, but rapidly collapsing lead over Scott Brown (R), who claims internal polling now shows him tied.
15. New York:
George Pataki 47, Kirsten Gillibrand 45 (Marist, 11-17)
Pataki 42, Gillibrand 45 (RR, 11-17)
Wisconsin:
16. Tommy Thompson 43, Russ Feingold 39 (PPP)
Thompson has not announced.
Possible to come into play
17. Connecticut:
Chris Dodd's seat (D-CT) seems safer now that Atty Gen. Richard Blumenthal will be the nominee. He leads in the first polls by healthy margins, but the stink of corruption might get onto him, too.
18. Indiana:
Evan Bayh (D) is just another tired, lockstep liberal, who somehow has enchanted the conservative state of Indiana into thinking he is a conservative, or at least a moderate. Can someone punch through that fog?
19. California:
Barbara Boxer has poor approval ratings, but looks stellar next to shocklingly big-government, gay-loving Gov. Arnold Schwartzenegger, who's a giant drag on the Republican brand. Carly Fiorina is fading as a potential challenger, but Chuck DeVore may be on the rise... if he can get attention.
20. Hawaii
This should be a safely Democratic seat, but Eighty-six year-old Daniel Inouye doesn't seem up for a fight, and Gov. Linda Lingle might be.
21. Oregon
Ron Wyden also seems like the kind of supposedly safe candidate who gets shocked in a political realignment, but so far he faces only a retired utilityman. Anyone else wanna take a crack at this?
If the Republicans fall short in 2010, they have far more potential pick-ups in 2012. Only nine of the seats are currently held by Republicans. Winning half of the thirty-two seats would mean a pickup of seven. Democrats in red states or polling significantly below 50% include:
1. Ben Nelson of Nebraska
2. John Tester of Montana
3. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota
4. Jim Webb of Virginia
5. Ben Nelson of Florida
6. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
7. Sherrod Brown of Ohio
8. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania
9. Robert Byrd of West Virginia
10. Claire McCaskill of Missouri
11. Maria Cantwell of Washington
12. Diane Feinstein of California
In 2014, there are several more red-state liberals up:
1. Mark Begich of Alaska
2. Mark Prior of Arkansas
3. Mark Udall of Colorado
4. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
5. Max Baucus of Montana
6. Kay Hagan of North Carolina
7. Tim Johnson of South Dakota
8. Mark Warner of Virginia
Note: I used the most recent polls available. If your favorite primary candidate was not listed, complain to the pollsters, not me, but I would love to learn why you favor that candidate and why you think that candidate has a chance of winning.
Republican candidates are listed first in all poll results. All 2010 Republican open seats are listed among the competitive races.
They need all 16 to take over the Senate”
huh?
Yes, all 16 of the competitive seats I listed. They have forty seats, they need fifty one. That means they must pick up 11. They also must defend five seats.
terrific update. thanks for taking time to put it together.
IMHO Jim Webb (VA’s Accidental Senator) is history if the state GOP can find a warm body to run against him in 2012. Mark Warner might be tougher to toss out in 2014 as he was a very popular Governor. The state GOP should be hammering away at both of them already; the state Tea Parties are very much out in front of the GOP.
Note to Virginians: Webb (with Lugar as co-sponsor) has effectively plagiarized Randy Forbes’s ‘New Manhattan Project for Energy Independence.’ Webb sent out an email less than a month ago announcing with great fanfare his ‘bipartisan’ initiative. Randy Forbes (R- VA 4th district) submitted his bill in the House in the summer of 2008, if memory serves.
Nevada is not lean Republican. Nevada is GUARANTEED Republican. Whore House Harry is “Dead Man Walking.”
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