The Death Month is Coming: A Crushing Unemployment Number Is Due Out February 4, 2010

Economic Policy Journal ^ | 12/10/09 | Robert Wenzel

[FromLori]

January is the death month as far as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is concerned. In January, in their bizarre data models, they kill off thousands of jobs. This January, they could knock off more than 800,000 jobs. Will the BLS figure out a way to fudge this huge negative January unemployment number that is scheduled to be released February 4, 2010? Here's John Crudele with the scoop on what's going on: The Labor Department is hurrying to correct inaccuracies in its monthly employment statistics that could cause the Obama administration big problems early next year.

Those corrections, however, will probably also eliminate the inevitable -- and unsubstantiated -- employment gains that come during springtime.

We now know that the job gains reported by Washington this past spring were an illusion.

Early in 2010 the Labor Department will subtract about 824,000 jobs from its official count in what is called a "benchmark revision" to more accurately reflect the jobs that weren't created this past spring.

I've already warned readers about the employment report for January that will be released on Feb. 4. And I've said this figure will be a disaster unless someone intervenes to correct the statistical aberration that will occur.

The Labor Department apparently now understands. And it appears ready to step in.

Here's the crux of the issue:

Each month the Labor Department guesses at the number of jobs being created by companies which it thinks -- but can't prove -- are newly formed. The department calls this the birth/death model.

Last April, for instance, the government estimated that new companies created 226,000 jobs. In May, the guess was 220,000 and in June 185,000.

Even in the depths of winter, the government added 134,000 jobs during February that turned out to be non-existent.

Those estimates are mainly the reason why the Labor Department now needs to revise downward by 824,000 the number of jobs it believes exist.

But the real problem for the Obama administration -- and the financial markets -- is the January figure that will be released in early February.

January is the only month in which the birth/death model shifts to the "death" side.

For whatever reason the model suddenly thinks that more companies are quietly going out of business than are being formed outside the view of Labor Department surveyors.

And there is no reason to believe the "death" side of the model is any more accurate than the "birth" side. Read more here.

[null and void]

Mmmmmmmmmaaaaaaybe...

[Night Hides Not]

6)And the Dallas Cowboys will be watching the Super Bowl on TV, like the rest of us.
7)Wade Phillips and Tony Romo will still be winless in playoff competition.
8)Jerry Jones will be quoted (again) saying "but how did you like those 3 Super Bowls I gave you in the 90s?"

[Brett66]

There's also the April surprise coming when people realize that their paychecks were a few dollars more last year because of less withholding, but the government will want it all back at tax time next year.

[The Sons of Liberty]

I’d like to see a breakdown of those people no longer counted as unemployed, because they have exhausted their benefits, and an in-depth study of whether they blame 0bama or not.

[expatpat]

Yes, but you can’t lie forever — eventually they catch up with you. And the algorithm they used to manipulate the figures will catchup with them in January. How will they fudge it now?

[caver]

“Yes, but you can’t lie forever — eventually they catch up with you.”

We can only hope so.

[Myrddin]

It sounds the the BLS hires the same kinds of "modelers" as we have observed in the "climate modelers". Spew whatever numbers the sitting administration wants disseminated by the media they own and control. Modeling is speculation. Actual revenue receipts are the genuine article. When people aren't working, they aren't paying taxes. Cut the crap. Report tax receipts as an indication of actual productive employment.

[FromLori]

Your right and this is what happens when it is shown in that form it’s not pretty so they don’t want it exposed.

Collapse In Tax Withholdings Refutes Improvements In Either Unemployment Or Corporate Profitability

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/collapse-tax-withholdings-refutes-improvements-either-unemployment-or-corporate-profitabilit

[Marty62]

I hope everyone realizes it is the SUFFERING of the American people that will finally bring this WORST PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES DOWN.
I know this is awful for the families, but this is the only way for the people to realize just how important it is to NEVER give Dums control of the American Republic.

[riri]

I agree and it has to happen quickly as people have an uncanny ability to adapt to misery.

[ez]

Why near the Amish?

[Marty62]

Yes. I had a Dr appointment yesterday.
I made a point of actually looking at the people walking around Dwtn.
No one was smiling. People were not their ususal selves. No smiles, seemed less well dressed as they ususally are, and all in all it seemed a depressed mood.

[Cementjungle]

Headlines will be something like

"Unemployment shows dramatic improvement, at 13%, down significantly from an adjusted figure of 17% in 2009. Obama says the economy is finally starting to recover from Bush."

[gathersnomoss]

I'll see you and raise you “Gypsie Sun & Rainbows, for short it's nothing but A Band of Gypsies..”

Jimi Hendrix on drugs made a hell of a lot more sense than The Marxist In Chief does today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZdDEHUJCuE

[Myrddin]

The reduced tax collections also measures underemployment. People who previously earned $150K annually, but now are working for minimum wage to avoid starvation. It's a palpable, objective measurement of a lowered GDP. Trying to divine the number unemployed is difficult as there is no concrete means of ensuring that everyone who is unemployed participates in the data collection.

[rhema]