Economic Misery Is Driving Voters Right

It seems simple to write off the four elections that got much of the attention last month in New Jersey, Virginia, New York and California. Democrats and Republicans each won two, so what really changed?

They weren't indicative nationally and represented no more than local issues playing out locally, right? Wrong. They represented a conservative groundswell — ideologically and personally.

The table below shows the four races. The first two columns indicate the percentages of the vote total gained by each party in the 2008 presidential election and the 2009 state and congressional elections. The third column shows the difference between the two elections, while the fourth totals the differences from the 2008 Democratic baseline.

The difference is dramatic in three of the races — including the special election in California's 10th congressional district where the Democrat won by double digits. Even factoring in the NY-23 special election, where the official Republican candidate finished third, all four races show an improvement for conservatives.

Assuming Republicans are the more conservative alternative, a Gallup Poll taken Nov. 5-8 gave a national scope to the November sample. Its survey of 2010 generic congressional preferences produced a 46% to 44% lead for Republicans (48% to 44% among registered voters — reversing a 6% Democratic lead in July).

So how do we explain the conservative surge? Exit polling in the New Jersey and Virginia races provided a detailed voter breakdown.

In New Jersey, the breakdown by gender and race showed little change. The Democratic advantage in voter participation fell three percentage points (to 41%), while the Republicans gained the same amount (to 31%). By ideology, liberals remained at 25%, while moderates fell to 45% from 50% and conservatives climbed to 30% from 25%.

Hmmm. I’ve been wondering if our Republican “leaders” have been so weak in their efforts to stop the Democrats because they are hoping all the things the socialists are doing will wake America up and cause them to vote Republican.

Of course, it is disgusting to a lot of Republicans. But our leadership takes us for granted.

What if this whole Obama debacle is the result of careful planning by Rove?

I still can’t get over the party putting McCain up as our great hope.

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