Posted on 12/01/2009 6:23:28 PM PST by LdSentinal
Tennessee Democratic Rep. John Tanner will retire next November, creating an open seat in an area that strongly favors Republicans.
Tanner's decision, according to those familiar with it, was made weeks ago and based on his desire to return to the Volunteer State after more than two decades in Washington. The decision was first reported by the Hotline.
Tanner, first elected to the 8th district in 1988, has run without a serious challenge in recent years despite the fact that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won the seat with 56 percent in 2008.
Tanner is the second House Democrat from a swing seat in the past few weeks to take a pass on re-election joining Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore on the sidelines. In total, nine Democrats are retiring from the House or running for higher office in 2010; 12 Republicans are leaving the House.
Democratic strategists immediately insisted that nothing should be read into Tanner's decision regarding a broad-scale series of retirements in the face of a potentially difficult political environment next year.
But, Tanner's departure seems to be evidence of a validation of House Republicans' concerted effort to recruit credible challengers to longtime Democratic members sitting in GOP-leaning districts. Stephen Fincher, a farmer, collected more than $300,000 over the last three months.
That strategy, which includes challengers to Reps. Ike Skelton (Mo.), Bart Gordon (Tenn.) and John Spratt (S.C.), is straight out of the playbook of Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff and formerly the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
What's good for the goose....
(Excerpt) Read more at voices.washingtonpost.com ...
I live in his district and loathe him. I suspect our worthless state senator Lowe Finney may try for it. We’re running a solid conservative against whoever the Dem is.
He can leave his pension and goodies at the door.
Good chance for a republican pick up? I would love to see Nancy hand over the gavel.
There is a God! I have been felling blue all evening, and there is little news like this that would perk me up.
For the most part Tipton County is conservative. Sure hope that Jimmy Nahife does not get the bug and run.
Over 20 years on the job is enough. Go enjoy your retirement. I wish more would decide this.
Here’s another one retiring rather than face the uphill battle. A trend perhaps? :)
Boss Hogg would be lucky to get a single term. We’re likely to be in control of redistricting in ‘12 and he’ll be cut off at the knees.
Hopefully Jimmy will think he’s too old to run.
It was looking like a slight GOP advantage before he retired and should be bit better now depending on the Rat sociopath candidate is. Our problem here are the farmers who love subsidies and will argue to the death that somehow farm subsidies aren’t welfare.
This district isn’t necessarily a slam-dunk for us. The GOP hasn’t fully developed its presence here (this district has, like Nashville’s TN-5, not elected a Republican Congressman since U.S. Grant was reelected in 1872) and has been where the infamous West TN Democrat Mafia that has had disproportionate control of our state for eons. I don’t think the Dems will necessarily give this one a pass, they still have legislators that will try to give this a go, but they have to be mindful they could be running for what will be a single term, since we could drastically reconfigure all the House districts (which are gerrymandered Dem to achieve a 5D-4R margin, and we’ll change it to 7R-2D in ‘12).
I’m watching Bart Gordon in TN-6, where he may likely face State Sen. Jim Tracy. Tracy could take out Gordon, and would be the strongest challenger he has ever faced. If Gordon quits rather than face Tracy, we’ll pick up that seat easily, since the district has gone GOP fairly heavily in the legislature. But in any event, the Dem dam is starting to spring some leaks, whether it turns into a modest leak or the Johnstown flood, we shall see.
I think the d-RAT Tanner saw the handwriting on the wall, and it wasn’t a forgery....both GOP standard bearers’ George W. Bush (04) and John McCain in the last election carried the district. And McCain won with over 56% of the vote, while Obuma scrapped by with just over 43%.
An attractive conservative candidate should be able to win this district, especially with the unpopular Obuma stinking up the place.
BTW, Tanner probably would not have captured this seat in the first place had he not been former Tennessee Speaker of the House and eight year Tennessee Governor, Ned McWherter’s cousin.
Are there any popular state legislator whom the Republicans could run?
Sure hope it is a trend because this is one trend I am enjoying as the Blue Dogs bite the dust!
Gore narrowly carried Tanner’s district in 2000. Bush narrowly carried it in 2004. Junior Ford did well in the West TN. Ditto for McCain in 2008. Tanner’s district is a swing district for TN. If the GOP is to retake the House, we need to get oust Gordon, Davis, and Tanner.
There’s only 2 GOP State Senators we have within that district, and they extend into the 7th. One is Mark Norris, the other is Dolores Gresham. Gresham just took ex-Lt Gov John Wilder’s seat this past year, she’s also in her late 60s, so probably too old. Norris is the Majority Leader, but he lives in Shelby County, so has only the extreme south end of the district. He might be a possibility, but I think we need someone from the central part of the district, since a great deal of it is rural. Norris could end up like our nominee in MS-1, who lost because he hailed from the Memphis suburbs.
Otherwise we might run a House member, where there appears about 4 possibilities, but I don’t know much about them. The current leading candidate, Stephen Fincher, still is second tier and I doubt could seriously get above 40% against Tanner (although that’s pretty good, Tanner hasn’t had a tough race in his career, save maybe his first race when he beat Ed Bryant (yes, THAT Ed Bryant) by a 62-38% margin in 1988 - he got a 64-36% margin in ‘94 and hasn’t gotten less than that since).
Gordon is on my hitlist. Others should pick one and stick with it. Concentrating on one at a time they fall.
As I said, the 8th district doesn’t have much in the way of a GOP farm team in the legislature, it’s still dominated by rural Dems. It’s still the Dems to lose. But the seat will likely be reconfigured for ‘12, so the Dems may recognize their hold will evaporate shortly.
Tanner is either lucky or has good political instincts. When Clinton/Gore won in 1992, Gov. McWherter offered Tanner to serve as Gore’s Senate replacement. Tanner shocked the political world by declining the offer. In hindsight, it was a good move for Tanner, because he would have been beaten by Fred Thompson in 1994.
“Tanner is either lucky or has good political instincts.”
I think it’s a combination of both. He was never a reliable vote for the liberal agenda, though he was in their camp more often than not. But I think he’s retiring this year for the same reason he turned down the Senate in 1994- he sees which way the winds are blowing.
Democrats may hold this district, but they can’t take it for granted anymore.
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