Posted on 11/27/2009 5:29:06 PM PST by SeekAndFind
World financial markets are quaking in the wake of a request by Dubai World, a principal investment vehicle for the Emirate of Dubai, to suspend debt service amounting to billions of dollars in the next 6 months. The company owes a total of $59 billion. Islam, of course, opposes interest payments on borrowed money, so much of the debt is so-called Islamic debt, in which different labels are applied, but the concept of paying for the use of money remains. Dubai's fabulous skyline has been built on a vast pool of debt, and property there was often pre-sold and re-sold in the classic bubble profile.
What has many worried is that Dubai's financial disclosure laws lack transparency. Many observers assumed that oil-rich Abu Dhabi (Dubai has no oil itself) would automatically bail out its fellow UAE member Dubai, but that assumption is being questioned. In recent years, as Dubai, long a free port with one of the most open-cultures found in the Arab world, has prospered and grabbed world attention; Abu Dhabi may have chafed a little at the glory coming Dubai's way.
The two emirates sport rival global airlines: Emirates, based at Dubai Airport and Etihad, based at nearby Abu Dhabi. Emirates is bigger, more widely advertised and publicized, and holds the record book for ordering the most modern long range aircraft, including a huge fleet of A380 super jumbos. Emirates reported a substantial profit in the last quarter, something that has many others in the airline business scratching their heads. Critics have long charged that Emirates enjoys hidden subsidies, something the airline adamantly demands.
A devastating real estate bust in Dubai is at the root of much of the current financial crisis, but the suspension of debt service calls into question the optimistic growth forecasts underlying Emirates Airlines' aggressive equipment orders. Nearly all airliners are purchased with concessionary financial terms underwritten by governments. So Emirates is unlikely to face any lending pressure for aircraft anytime soon. Borrowing for other purposes may become more difficult, however, especially if Dubai's tourist boom fades in the wake of property troubles.
Alexander Smith of Reuters suggests that Emirates may be forced into a merger with smaller (but still formidably large) Ethihad. A third airline, Qatar Airways, also runs an intercontinental hub in the UAE. One must wonder how many competing hubs will remain when all the debt is untangled. The three Emirati airlines together account for a substantial portion of the next generation aircraft orders (A380, B787, A350). If they all have trouble, so does the airliner manufacturing industry, already full of trouble.
The US is full of successful huge earth moving projects. The city of Seattle was enlarged by flattening numerous hills and filling in the low spots. It was an enormous task. It wasn’t megalomania. Some aspects of Dubai are not either.
I remember when swamps could be turned into useful places. Waikiki for one. Creating articial waterfront land should be easy to do instead of impossible. People love waterfront and lakes. Now, many are allowed to be filled naturally by sediment and atrophy. Dredging? Considered worse than pedophilia.
something is rotten... We are being robbed and the money is all being sent overseas....
I just don’t get it....
It’s almost like we lost the a war and are paying reperations... but I don’t remember losing any war.
Our treasure is being looted right in front of our eyes in broad daylight, and no one is saying anything about it.
Oh, yeah, baby. let's compare hoover damn to a fuKkin palm tree shaped island.
No accounting for taste in The Age of Bling.
puhleeze.
Straw man.
Straw man.
Recently the Department of the Treasury / Federal Reserve Board updated the Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities data. The following are the top ten creditors to the USA as of March, 2009:
| S.No. | Country | Holdings as of March, 2009 (Amt. in Billions) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 767.90 |
| 2 | Japan | 686.70 |
| 3 | Caribbean Banking Centers | 213.60 |
| 4 | Oil Exporters | 192.00 |
| 5 | Russia | 138.40 |
| 6 | United Kingdom | 128.20 |
| 7 | Brazil | 126.60 |
| 8 | Luxembourg | 106.10 |
| 9 | Hong Kong | 78.90 |
| 10 | Taiwan | 74.80 |
Keep in mind those are prewar dollars.
Allowing for 10-12% inflation in 1940-41, just before the war, and 26% single-year jump in 1946, there was about 35-40% inflation from 1936 to 1950.
Furthermore, 1950 dollars had exactly 10 times the purchasing power of 2007 dollars. And there has been some inflation since 2007, although it's hard to get a handle on. Maybe 8-10%?
So do the math based on that.
Suitable multiplier, about 15x? About $615,000,000 in today's dollars?
Well, while that may be true in this particular case, I think you’re sorta missing the larger and more important point.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/27/news/companies/Dubai_bank_risks/index.htm
The state-run investment company, Dubai World, owes about $60 billion. It rang up much of that in a building boom that included the world’s tallest skyscraper and the Palm Islands in the Persian Gulf, settlements shaped like palm trees.
According to CMA DataVision, which tracks credit markets, there’s a 35.82% probability that Dubai will default on that debt.
New York-based Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) has the most exposure to default risk at Dubai World, which a J.P. Morgan (JPM, Fortune 500) equity research note estimated at $1.9 billion.
NOTE : CITIGROUP ( which is practically owned by the AMERICAN TAXPAYERS ). More bailouts for a bad decision ??
NOTE THAT CITIGROUP HAS MAJOR EXPOSURE TO DUBAI WORLD. Yes THAT Citigroup, which the US government owns a huge chunk off thanks to the bailout courtesy of you and me.
And while UK banks, such as Standard Chartered, HSBC (HBC), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Barclays (BCS) are much more exposed to Dubai World, with a total of more than $30 billion in default risk according to J.P. Morgan’s note, U.S. banks have extensive dealings with UK institutions. Those include trading and guaranteeing debt, which could translate into losses for U.S. banks.
There’s also U.S. banks’ interactions with their German counterparts. Dubai has loaned a lot of money to Eastern European nations, as has Germany. Any losses from defaults there could expose U.S. banks to some risk.
Finally, there’s the impact of already reeling commercial real estate markets worldwide.
WE ARE ALL INTERCONNECTED FOLKS, and we haven’t seen the last of this real estate crisis yet.
Zero Hedge has a piece scroll down thru the comments this is just one of them
Damage Control team are hard at work... Just like after Lehman/Bear collapses.
I find this interesting:
NY times saying Citi Bank only has $1.9B under loan.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/28/business/global/28dubai.html?hp
Dennis Kucinich says otherwise.
http://www.7days.ae/storydetails.php?id=75035&title=US+outrage+over+Citi+loan
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