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To: Rummenigge
Foreign stocks and gold are supposed to be high risk assets?

Foreign stocks involve an element of currency risk, plus they currently have higher P/E ratios than the US market. Gold is a purely speculative asset - it throws off no interest or dividends. People pile on if they think it's moving up, but they also pile off if they think the momentum is reversing. In the late 70's, gold hit a high of $800. It then went on a two decade slide that saw it hit $250. It is now at $1200. This is the kind of roller coaster move that leads gold to be characterized as high risk. While the value will never go to zero, you can lose a great deal of money if you buy at the high, and end up having to sell at a loss a short time later, or holding the asset for decades while other assets skyrocket.

16 posted on 11/27/2009 6:12:38 AM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always)
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To: Zhang Fei
In the late 70's, gold hit a high of $800. It then went on a two decade slide that saw it hit $250. It is now at $1200. This is the kind of roller coaster move that leads gold to be characterized as high risk.

It's different this time. Gold will never ever again trade below $1000 per ounce. I read it on the Interwebz so I know it's true.

21 posted on 11/27/2009 6:50:24 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: Zhang Fei

ok - there is a currency risk on foreign stocks and there is no divident on gold leaving the rest a subject for speculations.

But making decisions based on risk assesment is always about alternatives.

If you invested in stocks of international companies the sell products for a price they can more or less dictate (pharmaceuticals etc.) there’s a relatively low currency risk in comparison to the other economical risks. I’d rather look at the cash flow per stock ratios of these companies then their P/E.

Also with gold you got something highly speculative but it changes it price mainly because the trust in the green back gets thinner.


27 posted on 11/27/2009 7:12:33 AM PST by Rummenigge (there are people willing to blow out the light because it casts a shadow)
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To: Zhang Fei

In the late 70’s, gold hit a high of $800. It then went on a two decade slide that saw it hit $250. It is now at $1200. This is the kind of roller coaster move that leads gold to be characterized as high risk. While the value will never go to zero, you can lose a great deal of money if you buy at the high, and end up having to sell at a loss a short time later, or holding the asset for decades while other assets skyrocket.


You may be right, but there is very little in common with today and 1980, other than that gold hit highs. The runup was far different. The 800+ price was only a brief instant (it otherwise traded in the peak month around $600).

I don’t have the means, but I’d sure love to see an overlay of the two graphs.


39 posted on 11/27/2009 10:18:04 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed ("Personal freedom begins when you tell Old Mrs. Grundy to go to Hell." -Lazarus Long)
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