It's different this time. Gold will never ever again trade below $1000 per ounce. I read it on the Interwebz so I know it's true.
It is hard to say for sure what will happen to gold. It seems gummints don’t like high gold prices because it reflects poor confidence in them so they will do what they can to depress prices. Gummint likes stock prices going up so it (if you believe Denninger) is using bailout money to inflate stock prices. The question becomes not just is there confidencein gummint but can gummint DO IT? I suspect that gummints ability to influence these things has just about run out. Like Wiley Coyote, it ran off the cliff some time ago but so far it has been able to stay aloft on the DESIRE to do so. We shall see. These are truly “interesting times”.
Interestingly enough, an India watcher points out that the Dubai default's impact on gold prices might not be incidental:
Dubai happens to be a major seller / distribution point AND the Middle East in general is a major source of income for expatriate Indians, Pakistanis, Sri Lankans, etc. to buy gold to take / send home.Do you not think the collapse of Dubai and a sharp cutback in spending by Indians might be a negative for gold prices?