Posted on 11/14/2009 8:22:45 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Which Big Country Will Default First?
by Martin Hutchinson November 09, 2009
Of the world's six largest economies, three currently have budget and public debt positions that if allowed to fester will push those nations into bankruptcy (the seventh largest, Italy, also has a budget and debt position that is highly vulnerable, but its problems appear chronic rather than acute). Given the proclivities of modern politicians for delaying pain and avoiding problems, it is likely that festering is just what those positions will do. So which major country, the United States, Japan or Britain, will default first on its foreign debt?
The other three of the six top economies, Germany, China and France, appear to have fewer problems but are not out of the woods entirely. Germany has substantial public debt because of the costs involved in integrating the former East Germany, but those costs are now mostly past and the current government is highly disciplined – thus Germany is now the most stable major economy. France is less disciplined; its debt level is similar to that of Germany but its current budget deficit is much higher, at around 8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2009, according to the Economist forecasting panel. However, its problems pale in comparison to those of the deficit-ridden trio. China has huge amounts of hidden debt in its banking system, which could well collapse, but its direct public debt is small, as is its budget deficit, so it is unlikely to enter formal default.
(Excerpt) Read more at prudentbear.com ...
Ping!
Regarding default and such matters, here is something Ron Pauls’ site alluded to...and, associated explanative links:
Christopher Story via his website has more information re World Court processing of CHINESE LIEN ON US TREASURY as of Nov. 11, 2009 and 1600 warrants...red- herring or something to it? Much more going on. Rumor is the story covered by Christopher Story will appear next week in major media.
Story’s webisite:
http://worldreports.org/news/246_matters_come_to_an_explosive_head_for_everyone
A Ron Paul site picked up on it:
http://www.dailypaul.com/node/114607
Wikipedia profile on Christopher Story:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Story
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Er, the US debt is denominated in dollars. The government can create as many dollars as are needed to pay the debt.
The danger is higher interest rates in the future, not default.
US
You people just don’t realize that the debt is not a problem. Our illustrious dunderheads in charge (DICs) will use the TARP money to pay down the debt, and then simply print more. We don’t have a problem!
If Ohbummer gets second term with Demonrat majority it’s definitely US.
The United States
So if the country starts to go broke, anyone who wishes can just leave the rest holding the bag.
The United States of America without a doubt. Especially since the federal government is taking over health care and our population (baby boomers) is aging rapidly.
I’ll bet the first is Britain...
You forgot the sarcasm tag...
In the 1990s, Argentina appeared stable (after decades of dictators, juntas, coups, and inflation beyond control). The IMF convinced the leadership to take private debt and make it public (who paid whom on that, I wonder)... when Argentina defaulted on their debt, and overnight the banks confiscated 2/3 of the deposits. The middle class is disappearing rapidly.
The UK.
Japan.
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