10,200 absentee ballots were sent out. Far fewer than that will come back by the deadline(next Monday). To be optimistic, say 8000 come back. Hoffman would need to get about 72% of them to have a chance. Even then he could lose depending on how the remainder split between Owens and Scozzafava. Does he have a chance? Yes, but it is a mighty slim one, especially since unions and other Democrat groups are heavily promoting absentee voting to their flock.
I agree. It is unlikely that Hoffman will receive that number of votes.