Posted on 11/11/2009 7:33:05 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, formerly of Merrill Lynch, thinks the unemployment rate is going to at least 12 percent, maybe even 13 percent. Optimists, Rosenberg explains, underestimate the incredible damage done to the labor market during this downturn. And even before this downturn, the economy was not generating jobs in huge numbers. If he is right, all political bets are off. I think the Democrats could lose the House and effective control of the Senate. I think you would also be talking about the rise of third party and perhaps a challenger to Obama in 2012.
So here is what I gleaned from Rosenberg’s latest report (bold is mine):
1. For the first time in at least six decades, private sector employment is negative on a 10-year basis (first turned negative in August). Hence, the changes are not merely cyclical or short-term in nature. Many of the jobs created between the 2001 and 2008 recessions were related either directly or indirectly to the parabolic extension of credit.
2. During this two-year recession, employment has declined a record 8 million. Even in percent terms, this is a record in the post-WWII experience.
3. Looking at the split, there were 11 million full-time jobs lost (usually we see three million in a garden-variety recession), of which three million were shifted into part-time work.
4.There are now a record 9.3 million Americans working part-time because they have no choice. In past recessions, that number rarely got much above six million.
5. The workweek was sliced this cycle from 33.8 hours to a record low 33.0 hours — the labour input equivalent is another 2.4 million jobs lost. So when you count in hours, it’s as if we lost over 10 million jobs this cycle. Remarkable.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...
Yes, those people on wall street need to buy the hookers their annual diamond necklace.
www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2354139/posts?page=46#46
He's sort of in the stopped clock class - right at least twice a day ...
12 percent?
Got news for ya, you’re seeing a complete government sponsored implosion of our system, where Americans will be fortunate if they’re able to exchange canned food for Christmas in the future.
ttt for later reading
No. Charles Goyette, author of Meltdown of the Dollar.
Not Celente so you can get off your rant.
Not Celente so you can get off your rant.What rant?
Celente is still kinda nuts and not the prophet a lot of ppl make him out to be.
Not a Celente devotee too?
"Charles Goyette, America's Most Independent Talk Show Host, best known for refusing to support Bush's Iraq war, and his clarity about the economy!"
Ooooookaaaaayyyyy.
Ron Paul pushed on CNN by Charles Goyette
Hmmm ... linked with luaP noR; am I to be surprised?
Naaaaw ...
That is why AIG is getting bailout money and bonuses under the wire to keep the derivative experts who created the financial WMD and have them dismantle it before it topples. The derivatives are our “wild car” in the recovery process. Anything, experts miscalculation or some overseas event can set the derivative WMD off. Estimates range from 55 trillion to 1500 trillion. Believe it or not there are pro Wall Street freepers who get upset with me for quoting these figures. They have not got a clue on how mad Americans are at Wall Street bankers for the mess and the politicians who cater/enabled them.
As far as current events....Schneider-Electric NAOD laid off 185 employees today.
Jihad by the Islamist in Chief
And I'm not kidding.
It's unfortunate you didn't actually hear the broadcast and feel the need to attack the messenger rather than discuss the merits of the message.Who is attacking the messenger?
You don't feel all this should be out in the open (otherwise it could be termed 'hiding something')?
That say a lot too. Usually there's something a little 'off' when ppl start to crowd around luaP noR, and when that happens I start to look for the fire ('where there's smoke') ...
(Remember the association of Jeremiah Wright and, ah, well ... one becomes known by the company one keeps)
Simplistic view of the unemployment to employment ratio Unemployment Load Ratio --------------- 5/95 = 0.053 10/90 = 0.111 11/89 = 0.124 12/88 = 0.136 15/85 = 0.176 20/80 = 0.250 50/50 = 1.000 5% -> 10% => +0.058 5% -> 12% => +0.083 5% -> 15% => +0.123 10% -> 12% => +0.025 10% -> 15% => +0.065 If the employed cover the unemployed in a closed equal pay/cost system, then With 5% unemployment, each employed person covers 1/20 of the unemployed person. With 10% unemployment, each employed person covers 1/9 of the unemployed person. With 12% unemployment, each employed person covers 1/7 of the unemployed person. With 50%, each employed person covers 1 unemployed person
The Christmas shopping season should be a good indicator. I think unemployment could hit 15%. If the economy suddenly boomed that would not be a good thing though. Recovery should be gradual and sustained, not a boom that results in a slump.
If unemployment hits and stays at 12-13%, I really doubt he will run again.
Actually, I have my doubts he will seek re-election even if the economy improves.
You got it!
Now carry yours forward. The sales this season largely determine the production orders for next year.
Those orders are placed early due to lead and delivery times. If factories don't receive orders, they don't hire, they layoff. Their suppliers then layoff.
Slow sales this season, might still have an affect at the end of next year.
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