Posted on 11/09/2009 9:59:27 AM PST by FromLori
The "mother of all jobless recoveries.
The more the market recovers, the more bearish David Rosenberg gets (which, of course, is how it should be).
Today's startling prediction, which David made on Bloomberg Radio this morning? Unemployment may go to 13%.
It would be hard to reconcile THAT one with the popular v-shaped recovery theory.
Bloomberg: The U.S. unemployment rate may rise to a post-World War II high of 13 percent in the aftermath of the recession, said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto.
“This is going to be the mother of all jobless recoveries,” Rosenberg said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “At the beginning of the year, who was calling for unemployment to go up to 10 percent?”
Rosenberg said the recession, the deepest since the Great Depression, “is truly secular in nature” and said the economy is “in a post-bubble credit collapse.”
A 13 percent unemployment rate would be the highest since monthly records began in January 1948, according to Labor Department data. The previous postwar high was 10.8 percent in December 1982. Yearly records, which began in 1929, show joblessness climbed to almost 25 percent in 1933 during the Great Depression.
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That would put real unemployment up around 20 percent and growing.
This is not a job-less recovery like they tried to hang on Bush. This is a job-killing recovery (if that recovery thing isn’t nonsense to start with)
Not good for Dems in 2010.
Quite frankly, I think we could hit 15%.
At this rate, the Market will soon be at 20,000, and unemployment will be at 30%!
At this rate, the Market will soon be at 20,000, and unemployment will be at 30%!
Worse since the numbers are fudged to begin with and it is actually at 17.5% right now.
I presume the author is referring to the "U-number" that's currently at "10.2%".
That, in turn, would push U-6 to nearly 25%, right?
That's because the popular v-shaped recovery theory is a load of codswallop.
I was estimating the real UE rate to be closer to 25%
Good point but bad for people in the meantime.
Well, here’s a crude extrapolation.
10.2 is to 13.0 as
17.5 is to 22.3
Things are going to get ugly...
If conservatives could take over today, honestly, what could they do to fix this. I don’t think tax cuts will do it. It is not like companies are not hiring, they are just not hiring here.
Oh, and
10.2 is to 13.9 as
17.5 is to 23.8
Or worse then 15% I think.
Now that we've passed 10% on unemployment, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to "run it up" over the next few months, in order to have the rate fall in the quarter leading up to the 2010 mid-terms.
Tax cuts certainly couldn’t hurt right now.
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